DAIRY AND MEAT EXPORTS

Press, Volume LXXXIX, Issue 27125, 22 August 1953, Page 8

DAIRY AND MEAT EXPORTS

“Good Grounds For Confidence”

OUTPUT LIKELY (From Our Parliamentary Reporter) WELLINGTON, August 21. “The rate of increase in prices of dairy and meat exports is slackening, and a change from Government purchases to private trade in the United Kingdom may occur at the end of the current contract period,” said the Prime Minister (Mr Holland) in the economic survey tabled today in the House of Representatives. “United States import restrictions have affected our dairy exports adversely, and further damage may arise from disposal of United States surpluses in foreign markets,” said Mr Holland. "The terms of trade recovered in the last 12 months, and long-term prospects seem favourable. There are good grounds for confidence in our ability to find remunerative • markets for any likely increase in export production over the next two decades at least. But as the population may rise faster than the volume of exports, external trade may be slightly less important as a proportion of national income by the fourth quarter in this century.” In 1951, when wool prices were very high, New Zealand could obtain, for a given volume of exports, one-quar-ter more imports than the average from 1936 to 1938. After wool prices fell later in 1951, import prices continued to rise and in the second quarter of 1952 a given volume of exports would buy only four-fifths of the imports it would have bought in the three pre-war years. In the third quarter, however, import prices started to fall, and now New Zealand’s trade relationship hgd improved to a level equal to that before the war.

Generally, long-term market prospects for primary products overseas seemed sufficiently strong to support an intensive effort to increase production in New Zealand, said Mr Holland. World consumption of raw wool had kept pace with rising production since the war. The market at present was healthy, and prices should continue to be good in the foreseeable future. The long-term prospects for dairy production might depend on the form in which it was offered to overseas buyers—as butter, as cheese, or as milk powders—said Mr Holland. In general terms, prospects for continued exports were good. It was by no means certain that the highest quality margarine could be increased in greatly increased quantities at prices which would constitute a threat to New Zealand’s dairy industry. Production of dairy products could increase in the next 20 years or so by about 40 per cent, said Mr Holland. There would then be about 130,000,000 lb of butter-fat available for increasing annual exports of dairy products after providing for greater local consumption, because of the rise in population. Meat Production Markets for meat appeared to be particularly sound, Mr Holland said. At present local consumption accounted for about one-third of total production. Meat production could expand by up to 200,000 tons by 1975. Half the increase could be used to increase exports by about a quarter of their present volume. Prospects for selling increased quantites at good prices were favourable. “Prospects for export trade are therefore that the volume of exports as a whole may rise by a smaller proportion than the population between now and 1975,” said Mr Holland. "Some help in maintaining the volume of imports a head of population may come from an improvement in terms of trade over this period. It is possible that foreign exchange receipts will be augmented 'by further local processing of some export products, and that some imports will also be obtained in a less finished state.”