ELECTION IN BRITAIN

Press, Volume LXXXVII, Issue 26560, 24 October 1951, Page 7

ELECTION IN BRITAIN

Both Parties Confident (Rec. 10 p.m.) LONDON, October >3. General Election remits in 39 of the 43 seats iiF the 27 London boroughs should be complete by midnight on October 25, and these shoula tell Britain how much confidence to piece in "landslide" forecasts based on the 1900 election figtires. Thirty-one of the seat# are held by Labour and 12 by the Conservatives. The latter will capture four "needle” seats, such as Dulwich, South Battersea, Central Wandsworth, and Clapham if 5 per cent, of the voters switch their allegiance from the Labour Party. Many people would draw the inference from this that Britain as a whole would therefore give the Conservatives a majority of between 40 and M in the new House of Commons. But the Conservatives have a loose hold on three other London seats—Wert Woolwich, West Lewisham, and North Lewisham. unless the tide flows steadily for the Conservatives, they might have to fight even to hold these. Labour Win Predicted The Labour Party last night made its first official forecast of a Government victory in the election. A headquarters spokesman claimed that Labour would not only win, but would Increase the party’s slender’ majority in the 1950 Parliament—assuming all constituency organisations continued to put up a 100 per cent, effort between now and polling day. The "Evening Standard” predicted a Conservative victory by 99 seats—based on a straw poll taken among SOO editors and other newspaper correspondents throughout Britain. The chief Labour danger spot is the great industrial area of Lancashire, where the Government has a number of marginal fights on band. The Conservatives Mid that the weather on Thursday might affect the verdict—and not necessarily to Labour’s disadvantage. Labour supporters thought that bad weather durlag the day time would hit their rivals The great mass of the Labour vote Is usually concentrated in the final three hours of polling—fi to 9 in the evening —when the industrial public have finished work. Confidence is equally strong in the Conservative Party. Spokesmen said that Mr Churchill was now assured of victory, provided his own followers turned out to vote in their known maximum strength. They were cautious about predicting the size of the majorities which, unofficially, have been estimated from 39t0 nearly IM, with the mean round about the M mark. Editors Mske Forecasts Commonwealth correspondents In London invited the editors of the Daily Express.” "News Chronicle,” Sunday Express,” and David Low. of the "Daily Herald,” to give their forecasts at a luncheon. Mr A. Christiansen, of the "Daily Express ■” said that at a conference of 12 of his staff the average Conservative majority was reckoned at 44. He was inclined to agree with this, and he thought there would be a smaller poll than in 1900. Mr Cruickahank, of the "News Chronicle,’ which publishes the Gallup poll, said that if there were no further swine and the Conservatives had a lead of 3 per cent., they mieht well secure a majority of IM. For Labour to be returned with n her* majority it would need a lead of at least 24 per cent. gi&MFSSS 4FBS? Herald." said he had attended the ’uncheon to learn, and not to prophear He said he had taken a private poll et the labour Party conference at Scarborough, with these results; 11 peonle !|? ou * b ! X jdb ss? r would win; eight l b 2}*Bht the Tories would win, and 8478 people said "Don’t know;” Mr John Gordon, of the w ßnndty Express,* thought that the Conservative landslide would be bigger than anybody now expected. If the thSl been dull he thought it was because people had l hei < mlnds befo ’‘e the elec»ber?£? that they wanted a change,, just as they did in 1945.