Tasmanian Elections

Press, Volume LXXXIV, Issue 25580, 23 August 1948, Page 6

Tasmanian Elections

■ Preliminary results from the Tasmanian General Election will give little satisfaction either to supporters of the Labour Government or to its opponents, Liberal and Independent. Counting to date suggests ■ that only two results are possible, ■ depending on the fate of two doubt- : ful seats—the return of the Cosgrove Government with its former majority over Liberals and Independents of two (which would be reduced to one after the election of the Speaker) or a House of Assembly evenly balanced between Labour , on the one hand and Liberals and i Independents on the other, which i would mean another election. In i either case, it is clear that the eleci tion has not carried on decisively i the swing against Labour that has j been shown in recent elections in . other parts of the Commonwealth, i This will surprise political observers ' in Australia, most of whom have ; been predicting either a clear-cut i win for the Liberals or at least such ■an accession of strength as would j permit them to form a Government : with the support of the Independ- ■ ents. j Because of its small House of Assembly and its peculiar electoral ; system, Tasmania provides one of the least satisfactory indicators of changes in Australian political o’pinion. The system of proportional representation is designed to ensure that in each of the five electorates parties gain representation in proportion to their aggregate votes. It had been estimated before the poll that a change-over of 5 per cent, of i votes might cost Labour only one seat; a swing of 10 per : cent, might lose it no more than three. A comparison of the j total votes polled by each party may, therefore, provide a more conclusive test whether Labour is : losing ground in Tasmania as it is elsewhere in the Commonwealth. All ' the signs seemed propitious for Mr Neil Campbell’s Liberal Party. Labour had lost ground markedly at the last election, in 1946, when its representation declined from 20 seats to 16; Mr Cosgrove’s Government had been identified with the Federal i Government in its recent referen- : dum reverse; it was believed to share the unpopularity which the Federal Government has earned by its attempt to nationalise the trading banks; and Mr Cosgrove himself was thought to have lost prestige through his trial, although he was acquitted, on charges of corruption. The Liberal Party felt ■justified in forcing a general election by the doubtful expedient of j using its majority in the Legislative I Council (which is elected partly on I a property franchise) to withhold supply, no doubt being encouraged ! to its decision by the success of the Liberal and Country Parties in ousting the Labour Government in Victoria in this way. Tasmanian Liberals ran the same risk as the Opposition parties in Victoria of having the constitutional question raised against them as an election issue; and there can be

little doubt that the Government 1 candidates made skilful use of their i opportunity. Reform of the Upper ; House, which they attacked as an j instrument of “ power and privi- ! “ lege ” used by the Liberal Party ! to deny the right of the people to ■ govern themselves through a demo- ; cratically-eiected Parliament, was 1 presented by the Government as the ! main election issue. It cannot have ' failed to distract attention from the fundamental issue in Tasmanian, as I in all Australian politics, which is the hurrying march of the Federal and State Labour Governments towards Socialism and nationalisation. | Tasmanian electors have not spoken I as emphatically as those of Western I I Australia, South Australia and Vic--1 toria; but a suggestive answer is to ■ be found in a first count of votes : which leaves their Government, ■ after 15 years’ continuous rule, teetering on the edge of defeat.