Germany’s Pressure of Population

Press, Volume LXXXIII, Issue 25136, 18 March 1947, Page 6

Germany’s Pressure of Population

The Potsdam Declaration made it as good as certain that Germany’s eastern frontier would lie along the Oder and the Western Niesse, Russia taking Koenigsberg and a large part of East Prussia, and Poland the remainder. About onethird of Germany’s territory was to be carved away. The Potsdam Declaration also affirmed the principle of mass expulsions. A population of almost 66,000,0g9—0n1y three millions and a half fewer than the population of the German Reich of 1939—is crowded to-day into occupied Germany, an area not much bigger than the British Isles. Moreover, for reasons of security, the Potsdam Declaration heavily limited economic development within this confined space.

It is necessary to read against this background tjie proposals which Mr Bidault, as reported yesterday, has put before the Foreign Ministers in Moscow. France considered, he said, that Germany’s dense population, compared with that of neighbouring States, was a war potential. He'suggested therefore that any current transfers of German minorities in other countries be Jialted and no new transfers be permitted; that the permanent settlement of displace/! persons in Germany be forbidden; and, most important, that the Allies undertake to reduce Germany’s population systematically, by emigration. “In spite of years of dis- “ like by France of German immi- “ grants ”, he added, “ France is “ready to welcome some of Ge&. “many’s excess population”. ' With this final proposal Mr Bidault struck, as General Marshall approvingly put it, at the heart of the German problem. It remains to be seen, however, precisely what Mr Bidault has in mind. It was known last month that the United States Government intended to ask at the Moscow Conference exactly when the Allied Governments proposed to repatriate the German prisoners of war still working for them. Earlier still, the United States Government had asked the French Government to repatriate by October next the 426,000 prisoners captured by American forces and “ lent ” to France. While fully recognising Washington’s legitimate interest in the fate of prisoners taken by American forces, the French Government suggested in reply that many of these prisoners—and of the 200,000 taken by the French themselves—might remain in France as free workers. Examining the French scheme, “The Times” last month observed that the labour of the German prisoners in Allied hands was just as badly needed in Ger. many as elsewhere, even though Germany’s population was too large: But th% lack of balance in its structure is economically more disturbing than its absolute size. This lack is in some ways similar to corresponding deficiencies in Britain, but in Germany I enormous war casualties are the prime I cause of distortion, which takes two

forms. First, there is a great surplus of wbmep over men. The recent census in Germany showed a population just short of 66,000,000, made up of 36,597,148 females and* 29,313,853 males. Most of the discrepancy of over 7,000,000 falls in the middle age groups, where women probably outnumber men by two to nne, and this the return of prisoners of war will do much to redress, Second, there is a great shortage of productive workers and a great surplus of dependants, exaggerated by the high proportion of aged persons, women, and children among the many millions expelled from Poland and Czechoslovakia.. Thus any scheme of emigration from Germany which accepts only productive workers will do the German economy harm, not good. Emigration is desirable, but it should be emigration of a fair sample, with dependants as well as workers, or alternatively there should be permission for emigrants to make remittances in foreign exchange. The new French scheme is of the greatest possible interest as offering the only outlet to German emigration so far opened, but if it proves deficient in these respects it will ’be of doubtful advantage to Germany.

Mr Bidault’s offer to the Foreign Ministers’ Council has yet to be elaborated. It will be interesting to see whether the immigration his country would welcome would include any family units, women, on children, and whether accordingly the pressure he seeks to relieve is really the pressure within Germany or pressure from Washington.