The Press TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1941. Far Eastern Guessing Contest

Press, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23477, 4 November 1941, Page 6

The Press TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1941. Far Eastern Guessing Contest

Last week the London correspondent of an Australian newspaper, trying to make sense of the Far Eastern policies of the democracies and to discover why Mr Curtin should hint at the existence of a united front against Japan in the Far East when in fact there is no such front, evolved the hopeful theory that the purpose of the democracies was “to keep Japan » guessing.” The same theory has also been put forward from time to time by the British Broadcasting Corporation as an explanation of what is otherwise inexplicable. The difficulty is to understand in what way it benefits the democracies to keep Japan guessing. The main objectives of their diplomacy are, presumably, to prevent further Japanese aggression and to keep the peace in the Pacific. Since Japan is now basing her policy bn a realistic estimate of the military risks involved, it seems clear that the best hope of keeping the peace in the Pacific lies in a declaration by the democracies, Russia, and China that they will jointly resist further Japanese aggression. Doubts about the unity of these Powers in the Far East can only be a factor making for war. In the meantime, however, Japan is showing that two can {day at the game’of keeping the enemy guessing. Japanese military and diplomatic activities in the last week or so have suggested half-a-dozen answers to the question of what Japan will do next. In the north, along the border between Manchukuo and the Soviet maritime provinces, there have been the expected clashes between Japanese and Russian border patrols. When Russia’s military position in Europe began to deteriorate, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Japan would begin probing the Russian defence lines in the Far East for signs of weakness. At the same time, however, the Japanese press renewed its campaign of threats against Thailand; and this, together with reports that the Japanese forces in Indo-China are being strengthened, has caused the Thai Government to affirm that it will Resist an invasion from any quarter. During the week-end an American broadcasting service put out a report that Japanese troops had actually crossed the Thai border. Though this is denied in Bangkok, it is admitted that there has latterly been an influx of Japanese civilians. In London the reports of Japanese troop movements in Indo-China seem to be taken seriously, though it is pointed out that they may be the prelude not to an attack on Thailand but to a renewed offensive against China in the Yunnan Province designed to cut the Burma road. The relation, if any, between these moves and the Japanese withdrawal from the key town of Chengchow, on the CantonHankow railway, has yet to be explained. This mystifying picture is completed by a report from Mr Hallett Abend, a correspondent of the “ New York Times,” that Japanese war vessels have been guilty of provocative activities in waters adjacent to America’s Pacific possessions. American official comment suggests that the report is substantially true. The most comforting view of Japan’s threatening attitude on so many different fronts is that, as has happened often enough in the past, local military commanders are acting on their own initiative. A more plausible view is that Japan is learning the German technique of aggression and is trying to disguise her intentions behind a smoke-screen of false reports.