THREAT TO THE CAUCASUS

Press, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23447, 30 September 1941, Page 7

THREAT TO THE CAUCASUS

GERMANS’ BID FOR OIL WELLS '‘GREATEST DANGER ON EASTERN FRONT” (8.0. W.) RUGBY. September 28. In (he opinion of the majority of military correspondents the greatest danger on the Eastern Front comes from the armies under Marshal von Rundsledt, which arc endeavouring to push across the south Ukraine to the Caucasus. The “New Statesman and Nation” says: “The weakest front of the three has turned out to be the Ukraine. The German advance guard on the shores of the Sea of Azov is already dangerously far on the road to the Caucasus and its oil wells, which the Russians must hold at all costs, and which are more vital than the Suez Canal and Gibraltar together. “Half of the reason everyone perceives. The oil wells, even if they were thoroughly wrecked, could, in part at least, after much delay, be turned to the Germans’ use, but it is even of greater consideration that, without oil, the Red Army and Russia itself would fatally collapse. “On these wells depend, not only our ally’s aeroplanes and tanks, but the tractors that drive his ploughs and feed both the army and the people. The mechanisation of agriculture has involved this risk, that should the wells be lost, Russia within six months would face both defeat and starvation. With that catastrophe our own hopes of victory would vanish, for there is no other army on which we could rely to effect the liberation of Europe. “This danger is still a long way off, however, and the distance yet to be covered is forbidding. Odessa and the Crimea still hold out, the mountain ranges are formidable, and on this

march the Germans would have to expose, over vast distances, an uncovered left flank, but for a stake so decisive that they will use all their resources of daring and ingenuity.” Turkey’s Importance The “Economist,” pointing out the vitally important role of Turkey in any German attempt to reach the Caucasus this year, says: "The German plan, if it is really directed towards an immediate frontal attack upon the Caucasus, must take into account both the vulnerability of the German western flank and the desirability of cutting the Russian defenders of the Caucasus off from any source of outside supply. ‘‘Both these considerations involve the status and the future of the only remaining shore on the Black Sea — the southern Anatolian shore. “The fate of Turkey is vitally bound up with tluf problem of securing undisputed German mastery on the sea flank of the Caucasus and of cutting Iran from the Russian front. It is unlikely that Germany can muster, by the Danube route and by "control of Balkan shipping, a force strong enough to annihilate the Russian Black Sea Fleet, especially as Sebastopol. Novorossiisk, Tuapse and Batum, not to speak of beleaguered Odessa, arc still under the control of the Russians. It would be a different story if the Straits could be opened to heavy units of the Italian Navy. “Here, the Turks, according to the Montreux Convention, have complete discretionary powers.” In spite, however, of sleadily-grow-ing pressure which the Gormans are said to be exerting on Turkey, wellinformed quarters in London believe there is no reason to expect that Turkey will deviate from her policy of neutrality or her determination not to permit any infringement of her rights. “Not Fantasy, But Realism” Mr J. L. Garvin, writing in “The Observer.” also emphasises the danger of the Caucasian front. “We must keep our eyes fixed on the tremendous situation now rapidly developing across the plains of southern Russia in the wide and vital region between the Dnieper and the Don,” Mr Garvin writes. “Rundstedt’s massive operations look far beyond the Don Basin, with all its mining and manufacture. The invaders aim at reaching the Volga and the Caspian before Christmas. The size of this strategical plan reduces the swoop on France to small scale. “Yet. as our allies themselves well know for all their heroism, these anticipations of the next and greatest struggle are not fantasy but realism. As collateral movements the Germans are opening their attack on the Crimean Peninsula, which lies out in the Black Sea like a stepping stone to the Caucasus. They are finding it a bristling fortress. “We here must recognise, like our Allies, throe plain things: First, only now are we beginning to witness the culminating effort of the invasion; second, the whole fortunes of the Soviet may be staked directly or indirectly on the gigantic grapple now shaping in the south; and third, the fighting position of the British Empire in the whole Middle East may be profoundly concerned. “From the Caucasus southward the common cause with our Russian allies may mean a common battle.” BRITAIN’S WAR METHODS CRITICISM BY MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT LONDON. September 28. “I do not believe that the war can be won by the existing methods,” said Mr E. Shmwell. British Labour member of Parliament, in a speech at Cardiff. "I am convinced that the majority of the people are losing confidence in the present Government and are completely bewildered on many aspects of its policy. We have a win-the-war Prime Minister, but we need a win-the-war Government. We must discard old ideas and be ready to overthrow every vested interest that stands in the way. "We are in great danger. Not much time is left. The Government may say that this is creating alarm and despondency, but I .say that the continued existence of the Government in its present form is cause for alarm and despondency,” concluded Mr Shinwell. Ambassador Postpones Holiday.— The British Embassy in Tokyo has announced that the British Ambassador in Tokyo (Sir Robert Craigie), acting on instructions from the British Government, has indefinitely postponed his departure from Japan because of the illness of a counsellor at the Embassy. Sir Robert Craigie recently announced that he was going to the United States on three months’ leave.—London, September 29.

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