The Press THURSDAY, MAY 1, 1941. The Position of Turkey

Press, Volume LXXVII, Issue 23317, 1 May 1941, Page 6

The Press THURSDAY, MAY 1, 1941. The Position of Turkey

The most obviously unfortunate consequence of the military failure of the British venture in Greece is that the position of Turkey in relation to the Axis Powers has been weakened. Had Greece been left to her fate, sufficient British naval, air, and land forces would have been available to establish bases or. the- strategic islands of the northern Aegean, notably Samothrace* and Lemnos, and possibly even to dislodge the Italian garrisons in the Dodecanese Islands which according to most accounts have been greatly weakened by lack of supplies. Moreover, if military strategy rather than national honour had decided the destination of the troops General Wavell had to spare for Balkan intervention, they would have gone to Turkey and not to Greece, since Turkey’s importance in the general strategy of the war is vastly greater than Greece’s. By the British peoples the attitude of the Turkish Government is now being watched anxiously and a little pessimistically. On the surface, the indications are - .t the moment more favourable than might 'have been expected. The closely-controlled Turkish press is verbally defying ihe Axis more freely than it has done for many months past; ‘Turkey’s adherence to her alliance with Great Britain has been officially reaffirmed; and the suggestion that she, might accept part of Grecian Thrace in return for concessions to the Axis is indignantly scouted. This sort of thing has. it is true, been said many times before, and yet at the crucial moment the Turkish Government has always found a good enough reason for a policy of inaction end compromise. But the situation now is very different from what, it has been at any other time since the outbreak of war. Hitherto, the task of the Axis has been to persuade Turkey that it was not in her interests to give active help to her ally Great Britain pr to her Balkan neighbours threatened by Axis aggression—and the task has not presented great difficulties. Now, for the first time, Turkey is being asked to make concessions which will involve yielding some of her own territory and politic..! independence. No one who knows the Turkish people will rashly prophesy surrender. In any case, it is possible to take too gloomy a view of Turkey’s military position which, although it has deteriorated, is by no means hopeless. European Turkey, it is clear, can no longer be defended; and if it can be assumed that the Germans are even now establishing sea and air bases on Samothrace and Lemnos, the importance of Istanbul as a port is at an end. This, however, is probably a more severe blow to Russia than to Turkey, since the Dardanelles are now Russia’s most vital sea lane. Turkey has the alternative and well-protected port of Smyrna, which has extensive rail Connexions with the hinterland of Apatplia. If she became involved in war, British and American supplies could still reach her through Smyrna,, assuming that British naval supremacy in the Mediterranean is maintained. Thera'is, ..too, the alternative supply , rqutej from the Persian Gulf through Bagdad, a route which has been greatly improved since the of w.ar f /The dispafph of British prd^ : ‘t»iprowil'jteatiiDns --there has undoubtedly done something to offset the unfavourable effects on Turkish opinion of events in Greece and the Aegean, In any discussion of the international position of Turkey it is, however, important not *o ignore the economic aspect; and in this connexion there must bef some uneasiness over the new barter agreement between Turkey, and Germany which, as '(The Times” points out has political implications, Early in the war the American magazine '’Time, ’ discussing the future of the AnglO’Turkish alliance, offered the opinion that Turkey ” will stay bought only so long as England continues to pay,” That is a crude and somewhat Unfair way of saying that Turkey’s supply position is acute and growing more acute. Turkey can buy the manufactured goods she needs more easily from Germany than from Great Britain and America, end her goods find a readier market,in Germany than in any other part of the wprld, The attempt to develop trade with Great Britain has been expensive for both sides, largely - pwing to transport difficulties. Great Britain cannot spare .enough ship* ping to give Turkey what she needs by the sea routes, while the low carrying capacity of the Jra*| railway system has been a weak link in the Ankara-Bagdad-Basra railway. - The Turkish people have suffered severe economic hardships since the outbreak of war; Germany’s stranglehold on the Dardanelles means that their hardships must In future.be more severe—unless they are prepared to do business with Germany on Germany’s terms. In the event, however, the most important single factor determining Turkish policy will be neither military ‘strategy nor supply but the attitude of Bussia, whosb position is now one of great weakness .and danger.