The Press THURSDAY, JUNE 20, 1940. Mr Churchill's Speech

Press, Volume LXXVI, Issue 23051, 20 June 1940, Page 6

The Press THURSDAY, JUNE 20, 1940. Mr Churchill's Speech

The outstanding virtue of Mr Winston Churchill’s war speeches is that, although they abound in striking and original phrases, they are entirely devoid of that complacent optimism which was so disturbing in the speeches of his predecessor. As Mr Churchill seems to realise, the British people have an illimitable capacity for remaining calm in the face of adversity, provided they know they are being told the worst and provided they have confidence in the ability of their leaders. They now know that they are being told the worst and that their leaders are worthy of their own resolution and resourcefulness. The burden of Mr Churchill’s latest message is that, for the first time in modern history, Great Britain herself faces the certainty of a direct attack on her own soil. Now that the greater part of the western coast of Europe is in German hands, her supremacy on the sea, though still unshaken, does not confer immunity from landings by bodies of from 5000 to 10,000 troops which might slip across under cover of darkness or fog. It is perhaps unlikely, however, that Germany believes herself capable of striking a decisive blow against Great Britain by this means alone. More probably, her campaign against Great Britain will take the form of continuous air attacks designed to shatter civilian morale and disorganise industry and of an intensified blockade by sea and air designed to make the problem of food supply acute, with landings of troops, undertaken sporadically at first in order to add to the general confusion. Of the three forms of attack, the one likely to create the greatest immediate menace is the blockade. Germany’s new bases in Norway will enable her submarines to operate freely on the vital Atlantic shipping routes, while the necessary congestion of shipping in Great Britain’s western ports will make them particularly vulnerable to air attack. But it is necessary to remember that if Germany’s capacity to interrupt Great Britain’s food supplies has been increased by recent developments, so also has Great Britain’s capacity to interrupt the supply of essential raw materials to the axis Powers. With Italy’s entry into the war, the collapse of France, and the elimination of Norway, Denmark, Belgium, and the Netherlands, virtually all'essential materials consigned to European ports can be seized as contraband. The difficult problem of the transit of goods through neutral countries to Germany no longer arises as far as western Europe and the greater part of the Mediterranean are concerned. It is this consideration, presumably, which leads Mr Churchill and his advisers to the cautious conclusion that there are “ good and reasonable “hopes of a final victory.” At a first reading, this is a somewhat chilling phrase, particularly after the confident prophecies of victory which were the stock-in-trade of the Allied leaders of a few months ago. But it is necessary to be quite clear as to Mr Churchill’s precise meaning. He is not saying that Great Britain has only a reasonable hope of escaping defeat. What he is saying is that there is a reasonable chance that the vast military machine of Ger- , many, which has already sustained heavy losses and is imposing a tremendous strain on the economy behind it,' may shatter itself in the attempt to overthrow Great Britain. Hitler is in approximately the same position as Napoleon was in. Though he has conquered the greater part of Europe, his conquests are insecure unless he can complete them by destroying the last and greatest of his opponents. And if he cannot do this in the next few months, it will be for ever outside his power, since by 1941 the vast industrial resources of the new world will have begun to tip the scales against him.