The Pres MONDAY, MAY 30, 1938. Political Changes in Japan

Press, Volume LXXIV, Issue 22414, 30 May 1938, Page 8

The Pres MONDAY, MAY 30, 1938. Political Changes in Japan

The cabled comments on the reconstruction of the Japanese Cabinet are almost bewildering in their variety. Some observers see in the changes a strengthening of the influence of the militarists; others announce a personal victory for Prince Konoye; and others again, placing the main significance on Mr, Hirbta's resignation, interpret what has happened as the abandonment of the idea that the present conflict in China is merely a preliminary to a conflict with Russia. It is possible that this last interpretation contains a little of the truth. There is some reason to suppose that Japan has at no stage of the present war with China put forward her full military strength and that strong reserves are being held at home against the eventuality of a breach with Russia, It is safe to say, however, that the major cause of the political crisis which led to the Cabinet reconstruction was simply the perennial conflict between the Army leaders and those responsible for the government of the country- Japan is at the moment in an uneasy transitional stage from capitalism and liberal democracy to Fascism combined with socialisation of, the main industries; the Army presses for more rapid advance towards Fascism while the political parties and the financial interests seek to uphold the remnants of parliamentary democracy and private enterprise. Prince Konoye’s Cabinet was essentially a compromise administration and succeeded better than any other cabinet in recent years in holding the confidence of the military leaders and of a public which regards the military leaders with considerable mistrust. The partial failure of the campaign in China has, however, made it increasingly difficult for Prince Konoye to maintain a balance of forces. The state of emergency created by the war in China compelled the Government early in the present year to force through the Diet two measures which the military leaders have long regarded as essential to Japan’s military efficiency—the Power Nationalisation Bill and the National Mobilisation Bill. The first of these measures empowers the Government to take complete control of the great electrical companies; the second authorises complete Government control over all forms of labour, over wages and conditions of work, over exports and imports and the tariff, and over all industries which have even the remotest bearing on national defence. The National Mobilisation Bill is rightly regarded as the prelude to the establishment of a totalitarian state and was bitterly opposed by both of the principal political parties, the Seiyukai and the Minseito; in the end it was passed only because the politicians realised that a continuance of opposition was likely to lead to a complete and final suspension of constitutional government. But the capitulation of the Diet was the beginning rather than the end of the real struggle. The National Mobilisation Bill can be brought into operation in a state of war or in any national emergency; and it was argued by the Army leaders that the situation in China warranted immediate and vigorous use by the Government of the powers conferred upon it. At this stage the situation was further complicated by the illness of Prince Konoye, who for the greater part of April was unable to take any active part in politics- Lacking his leadership, the Cabinet was Immediately split between two factions. General Sugiyama, Admiral Yonai, and Admiral Suetsugu demanding immediate enforcement of the National Mobilisation Act, and the civilian members led by the Finance Minister, Mr Kaya, denying that there was any need for such drastic measures. The departure of General Sugiyama to the war front to consult those responsible for the campaign in China led to a crop of rumours concerning the impending resignation of Prince Konoye and the establishment of a military dictatorship. Tov/ards the end of®April, however. Prince Konoye put an end to these rumours by returning to the political arena apparently restored to full vigour. In the light of this summary, the meaning of the Cabinet changes is fairly plain. The Army’s demand for drastic overhaul of the political and economic structure has once again been refused; but important concessions have been mace to the Army’s insistence of the need for a greater national effort in support of the forces in China. Mr Kaya, the leader of the civilian element in the Cabinet, has been dropped, and Mr Hirota has been replaced by an Army officer in the important position of Foreign Minister, This, of course, is not the end of the crisis. The real struggle over the National Mobilisation Bill is still to come; and Prince Konoye’s health is not likely to stand the strain of the Premiership much longer,