METEOROLOGY OF ELECTIONS

Press, Volume LXXI, Issue 21631, 15 November 1935, Page 14

METEOROLOGY OF ELECTIONS

i i —«. — IMPORTANCE OF DATE j SURVEY OF ENGLISH RESULTS LONDON, September 20. Why do the Conservatives usually win a general election if it is held in the summer or autumn? Why do the Liberals and Socialists, on the contrary, generally win their .general elections in tiie winter or spring? It may be chance or coincidence, or conceivably some deep j rhythmic throb of the political season.?, but there is no doubt whatever of the fact, states a writer in the "Observer." Jn tiie last 40 years the Conservative party, or a National Coalition, in whicli the Conservatives were the dominating force, have won six general elections. Three of these were in October —the KhaKi election of 1900, the Zinoviefr. election of 1924. and the National Government election, of 1931. One was in November—Mr Bonar Law's Tranquillity Parliament of | 1912, which lasted a bare twelve-, ; month; one in December —the Cou- j ; pun election of 1918. when woman j ' sull'rage was introduced: and one in j i July—-the famous Unionist triumph i of "i:i!)s. which led to Lord Salis- : bury's last and greatest Government, , to Joseph Chamberlain's magnificent work at the Colonial Office, to the diamond jubilee and the golden sunset of Hie long' Victorian Age. On the other hand, the Liberals have won three, and the Labour j party two. general elections in the I same period. One of these, and the I most record, was in May—the 1929 j election, when the country rejected •'Safety'First" and tried the second minority Labour Government which found itself faced a few months I later with an economic blizzard. ! The Liberal Tide j But the full Liberal tide last i lloweti in January—if was at the j flood in .1906, when the Campbell- ! Bannerrnan Government came in with an enormous majority on Chinese Labour, the Nonconformist | Conscience, the Big Loaf and Offals, and a few other forgotten things; and ae,ain in 1910, when the People's ikidgel uave Mr Lloyd George an opportunity for talking about dukes and dustmen. Political meteorology is not an exact science, but if there is anything in statistics, or superstition, the Conservatives ought to hold elections in the autumn, when mellow frtiitfulness is in vogue: and I lie Progressives in dark and dreary January, when the winter of our discontent is at its worst and most depressing. The following table shows the months and results of general elections since 1(532:--Year. Mouth. Winner. 1H32 . - Dec. Lib. Mi.'is . . Jan. . . Lib. 1K37 . . April . . Lib. 1!!-11 .. Julv . Cons. j lii-17 .. July Lib. j 17552 . . Julv . . Cons. I l!ia7 . . March . . Lib. j !7{.")!l .. Jan./ Feb. .. Lib. I , l>s(jf> . . Julv . . Lib. ! ];;; ; 7i . . Oct. . . Lib. \ l!!7-i .. Jan./ Feb. .. Cons. ! Kffil) . . Mar./ April .. Lib. i 17571 a . Nov./ Doe. . . Lib. ! Ifsilti .. Julv .. Cons. t 1592 .. Jul>- . . Lib. i 1K95 ..Julv .. Cons. ! 1900 . Sept./ Oct. ~ Cons. \ l 1900 , . Jan. . . Lib. j 1910 .. Jan. , . Lib. , J9lO . . Dec. . Lib. : I 19175 . . Dec. . Coal it. i 1922 . . Nov. . Cons. 1923 .. Dec. . . Labour , 1924 .. Oct. Cons. ! 1929 . , May . Labour 1931 Oct. National! A Curious Sequence Hut an examination of old general: election figures reveals something; more than social and seasonal! changes. Go back another 100 ! years before the Reform Bill, | to tin: first party Prime Minister in I the modern sense. Robert Walpole,! and a curious sequence emerges. I From 1721 to 1770 the Whigs | ruled England; 50 years without, a I break. (Those were the davs of! "The Bedford Gang'' and the placemen.) Then, from 1770 to 1830, the Tories ruJcd England; 60 years, but with an occasional break for substitute Whig Ministers. In 1830 the tide turned again, and during the next 44 years the Liberals heJd office 33 years to the Torv 10; and even so, the Tories were c-Jy in (\v:!h the single exception of the Peel administration) when the Liberals were tired or not on speaking I terms with each olhvr. I Hut with the fall of' Gladstone's! great Ministry in 1874—-this was the Government that disestablished the Irish Church—the tide turned once more. In the next 41 years the Conservatives became the dominant parly and by 1915 they Jiad held ofhee for 23 years to the Liberals' 16 Since 1915 there has been no Liberal Government, and although there have been two Labour Governments, neither had a majority in the House of Commons. But since 1910 there Lave been two Conservative Governments, which lasted nearly SIX ycars; anr} three Coa]ili(m Governments, in two of which the Conwrvatives were the dominant