PROGRESS TO RECOVERY

Press, Volume LXXI, Issue 21578, 14 September 1935, Page 16

PROGRESS TO RECOVERY

MINISTER'S HOPES IMPROVEMENTS IN TRADE STATEMENTS BY THE HON. ADAM HAMILTON Confident hopes of New Zealand's progress towards recovery were expressed by the Hon. Adam Hamilton, Postmaster-General, speaking last evening at the annual smoke concert of the Canterbury Commercial Travellers' and Warehousemen's Association. Mr Hamilton based his hopes on the recent increase of the Dominion's overseas trade, and the increase in commodity prices, illustrating his remarks by figures and by graphs showing variations in price levels.

"The overseas trade of this country has also shown a gratifying increase, recently," said Mr Hamilton. "The total overseas trade has increased from £59,323,000 for the year ended June 30, 1932, to £77,255,000 for 1934-35, an increase of £17,932,000, or 30 per cent.

"The large increase in trade, together with recent rises in the prices of most of our important commodities, he said, "is the best evidence of returning prosperity. Two dark clouds, which were hanging over the Dominion, quotas and levies, have been removed. The agreement affecting meat prices has been satisfactory, butter is again at a payable price, cheese and wool are rising to good prices, and money is both plentiful and cheap. I think that we are entitled to cheer up and to look forward to times even better than the present."

World Trade Mr Hamilton said that the total overseas trade of Great Britain for the six months ended June, 1933, had been £ 520,828,000, and for the same six months of 1935, £594,696,000. It would be seen that, as compared with the first six months of 1933, the total oversea trade of Great Britain had increased during the corresponding period in 1935 by £74,000,000, or about 14 per cent. Canadian trade figures also showed a similarly increasing tendency. The total imports and exports of Canada for the year ended March, 1935, had been 1,189,990,000 dollars, an increase of 302,892,000 dollars or about 33 1-3 per cent, on the total trade for the year ended March, 1933. "New Zealand, as is well known," he said, "depends upon overseas or international trade more than any other important country in the world. Even during the worst years of the world-wide depression, for example in 1932, the total oversea trade of the Dominion was about £37 a head of population as compared with £2O a head for Australia, £23 for the United Kingdom, £25 for. Canada, and £33 for Denmark, the foreign country whose exports compete most severely with the exports from New Zealand. The international trade of the world is therefore of no little importance to this Dominion, and any improvement must assist recovery in this country.

Effects of Restriction "International trade has, however, been restricted in recent years by means of tariffs, quotas, control of payment for imports, and treaties. The end of the Great War saw a remarkable exhibition of nationalist economic policies, particularly marked in relation to industrial products, designed to protect the new industries created in various countries and the channels of trade opened up during the war. The diffusion of manufacturing equipment and technical knowledge during and immediately after the war led to great industrial development in hitherto comparatively backward countries. It has been the object of each country to safeguard its own industries but at the same time to export to other countries as freely as possible. "The result has been that most countries have by tariffs or prohibitions on imports sought to limit as far as possible the volume of imports. Taking the year 1929 as a basis, the value of world } trade had by 1932, 1933, and 1934 decreased to about one-third and was on a value basis roughly equal only to the trade in 1905. This huge decrease in the value of goods exchanged, much more severe than the decline in the quantity, has of course had disastrous results not only to this Dominion but to all other countries.

No Improvement Recorded "Various calculations have been made to endeavour to show the quantity decline in international trade, which has of course been less marked than the value decline, and although estimates vary it can be confidently stated that during 1934 the quantity of goods exchanged internationally was at the most threequarters of the trade of 1929. Still more marked has been the fall in trade in manufactured articles (as distinct from food-stuffs and raw materials) which, according to calculations made by the German statistical office, decreased during 1934 to two-thirds of the 1929 level. "Pealing only with the international trade of the world as a whole and disregarding any im-, provement in national internal trade, it cannot be said from any figures available at the moment in New Zealand that any appreciable improvement has taken place. "The latest publication of the League of Nations,, summarising the movement of the world trade of 76 countries up to May, 1935, shows that the value of international trade during any of the first five months of 1935 has not reached 35 per cent, of the trade of 1927 and was about the same as during the corresponding months in 1934. It would appear, however, that the oversea trade of the United Kingdom and other parts of the British Empire has increased as compared with the severe depression years of 1932 and 1933." .