EARTHQUAKE PREDICTING

Press, Volume LXXI, Issue 21534, 25 July 1935, Page 20

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTING

TO THS EDITOR OF THE PRESB. Sir, —A week ago I was very interested to read of Mr Greenspan's earthquake predictions, ~nd was just beginning to think whit wonderful progress wa3 being made, when I read Jurther that he was quite unknown In the scientific world, and his predictions were not taken seriously by seismologists and geologists. I was quite disappointed, and I am sure Mr Greenspan would i • too, if he knew. Yet although one may sympathise With Mr Greenspan one cannot but (admit that, being unknown in the scientific world, he cannot possibly be Tight All his predictions are mere coincidences. There is nothing extraordinary we are told in the coincidence of one of his predictions with the Quetta earthquake. Of course not. Editors, the cable news, told us, began to pay attention to Mr Greenspan's predictions, but then we all know what simple, gullible people editors are. Then Mr Greenspan claims 87 per cent, accuracy. But what of it? What a wonderful thing is scientific accuracy! Take our scientific weather predictions, for instance. Their accuracy j is proverbial. Even verses have been written about it. 'Vhat would we do without our scientific authorities to keep us In the narrow way and deliver us from the morass of error into which we would inevitably fall if they failed in their duty of not taking our Ideas or claims seriously, and if they ceased to give us proclamations from presidential chairs. Th« lapse of time before scientific, "ally scientific, predictions of earth- ! quakes will be made is given variously tap to 100 years, an*, indeed there are promising indications that this period JfiU be greatly exceeded. So much k learnt, and exhaustive i ean be carried out k '•rty lay tht acientistv tbat so much I f

work by so few people must take a long time. Nor Is it any use anyone else trying to help things along, lor apart from the presumptuous nature of the effort, tney, being so often ignorant of the rudiments of scientific enquiry, their efforts can never lead to anything but coincidence. All these things being so, let U3 reaffirm, with one voice, "Ad veritatem per scientiam solum."—Yours, etc., L CLAUDIUS. July 23, 1935.