ELECTORATES IN THE SOUTH

Press, Volume LXX, Issue 21133, 7 April 1934, Page 14

ELECTORATES IN THE SOUTH

REDUCTION IN NUMBER POSSIBLE DOMINATING POSITION OF NOUTII ISLAND The population of the North Island has established such a lead over that of the south in the Jast eight years. that, it seems likely that when the next compulsory revision of the electoral boundaries is made, the South Island may los; two of Us seats m Parliament. Normally the revision would have been made in 1931, immediately after the census which was to have been laken in that year. For reasons o economy the Government decided not to take the census, and a result was that the revision was not made. But since there was no decision indefinitely to postpone the census, presumably one will be taken at the end of the next Jive-year period, in 1936. II that is done, a revision of the electoral boundaries will be compulsory under the Electoral Act of 19-7. .1 Gradual Lead The gradual dominance of the North Island in population extends back several years. It was so marked even as recently as 1927, when the last revision of electornl boundaries took place in New Zealand, that the South island lost one scat and the north gained correspondingly. The Ashburton and Ellesmsre districts were merged to form Mid-Canterbury, and Auckland gained the new seat ol Auckland Subu.bs. After the redistribution of that rear the North Island had 47 of the 70 seats in Ihe ! louse of Representatives, r.nd the South Island had 29. The whole basis of the revision is to secure equality of voting strength .in the electorates, and as (.here have been considerable changes in the distribution of population since the last, revision, it seems proper to presume that, important changes in the constitution of the electorates will have to follow.

Comparative reputations i A few simple calculations indicate Ihc statistical position, which seems to bear out the foregoing conclusions. In 1926, when the census was taken upon which the revision of 1927 was based, the North Island had a population in excess of that of the south by 319,157 persons. On that, basis the north secured a representation in Parliament of 18 more members than Ihe south. There lias been no change .in that ropresentation to the present, lime, afthough since 1920. lo April 1. 1933. the North Island's excess or population over that of the south had grown to 376.843. Thus the population of the North Island since 1920 has increased by 57,686 more than the increase m the South. The following table illustrates I lie position, the figures given being exclusive of Maoris. The figures for April 1, 1933, are estimated. Population 1920. 1988. crease. North Island 381,813 917.781 85.908 South Island 512,050 5)0.938 23.282 The population of Ihe North Island is increasing nearly twice as fast as that of the South Island. Constituents lor Two Seats The North Island's new preponderance of population on the basis used for the last distribution of electorates, ■would provide constituents enough for two additional members of Parliament. To arrive at a proper distribution of seats, the Representation Commission which undertakes the periodical revision works on the basis of an equal nopulation for each member of the House. There arc 76 seats in the House of Representatives, and if the present estimated population of New Zealand was to be divided equally among the members each would have to look after the interests of apnroximately 20,243 people (the population in that case being the estimate of 1.538.482, to December 31, 1933). It would thus take at least two members to care for the needs of the North Island's additional 57,688 souls who were not provided for on the basis for the old electorates. The Country Quota The position, when it comes up for review, will be affected to a certain extent by the nature of the drift of population, for an increase of rural population would naturally assist the influence of the much-discussed country quota in deciding the allocation of electorates. But statistical evidence points to a drift of population to city areas. The New Zealand Year Book for 1934 contains the significant paragraph: "The increasing proporion of urban population in recent years is plainly manifest. It is noteworthy that the 'urban drift,' either non-existent or quiescent up to 1906. in that year commenced a swift rise, which is gaining in momentum." The country quota, which is considered in some quarters to operate badly against the urban areas, was introduced to preserve a more even balance of power. Its provision allows the commissioners undertaking the revision to make an addition of 28 percent, to the actual population of rural areas to bring them within reasonable political strength when compared with more thickly populated districts. Its operation produces something of a paradox, for in many rural electorates a member will be representing a nominal population, part of which, even to the extent of more than a thousand, is fictitious. Example in Mid-Canicrbury Mid-Canterbury offers a good example. Its 1926 population in the urban areas was 5076: the rural population was 12,427. making an actual population of 17,503. The quota for the 1927 revision of boundaries (the figure representing the average number of constituents for each member) was 19,820. The Mid-Canterbury population was below that figure Id the extent of 2317, so that, exercising its power, the commission added the country quota and brought the nominal population up to 20,983. The member for Mid-Canterbury in that, way represented 3480 constituents who were entirely fictitious. Apparent Anomalies ' To preserve this balance in the electorates in urban areas, Ihe commissioners' have an equally delicate task. It is often necessary to make allocations of certain districts which appear anomalous. P'or instance, to secure the quota in the Christchureh South | electorate during the last revision, it was necessary to break the boundary line along Colombo street, which would have been its ordinary course, and take a very small slice "off Sydenham, via King street and Tennyson street. Residents in the locality often express amazement at the apparent anomaly, J but such action was found necessary j by the South Island commissioners, Who have to work within narrow limits when allocating for the urban districts. Within the City But since 1927 even the city population has fluctuated so greatly, and extended so much in certain directions, that it is believed that several big changes will have to be made even in the allocation of the urban electorates in Christchureh. The effect will be similar with the electorates in the South Island as a whole, and it is expected that when the commissioners take up the task which will presumably fall to them in 1936. they will have to recommend the forfeiture of still another South Island electorate. If that proves to be the case, those electorates which necessitated the greatest assistance from the country quota in the last revision will suffer. Two of these sparsely populated area:? would probably be amalgamated, as was The case with Ellcsmcre and Ashburton.