The Press Thursday, February 23, 1933. Recovery?

Press, Volume LXIX, Issue 20788, 23 February 1933, Page 8

The Press Thursday, February 23, 1933. Recovery?

Mr Neville Chamberlain's prophecy of better times in the near future, referred to in the cable news yesterday, will attract very little notice in a world that has, in the last three years, grown weary of the easy optimism of politicians. Yet it will cheer some people to know that Sir Arthur Salter, whose book Recovery has a high place in the distressingly extensive literature of the depression and whose temperament is not naturally sanguine, is of Mr Chamberlain's way of thinking. In two articles, one in the Political Quarterly, the other in the Yale Review, he summarises the outstanding events of the last 12 months and finds the outlook not wholly black. In the first place, he declares, there are some signs " that the downward movement "of the trade cycle, so far as it can "be isolated from the novel features "of this depression and crisis, is at " last beginning to bring the normal " curative forces into operation. Ex- " cess stocks of goods have been " running down; and there are some " indications of a demand for re- '' plenishment; here and there the de- " mand for new plant, or its repair or "re-adaptation, seems to be increasing; " the prices of some commodities show " a tendency to rise," though " the '■ major factors outside the control of "such enrative forces may, of course, " defeat them." Second, there have been within the last year three notable examples of successful collective action. One was the great conversion operation in England, which secured an annual saving to the budget of more than £23,000,000, and paved the way for a general reduction of long-term interest which should react favourably on industry. Another was the success of the United States Government and the Federal Reserve Banks in countering deflationary forces and averting what threatened to be a complete financial I collapse. The third was the settlement 'of the reparations question at Lauj sanne. Of the other efforts to settle the difficulties of the world by collective action he is not so hopeful, and he prefers to await more definite results before passing judgment on the Ottawa Conference. Read in the light of his analysis of a year ago, there is here a note of tempered hope. Probably the greater effort is still to come. " The next year," he concludes, " will "be one of the most critical in the "history of modern civilisation. There " are some indications of natural recovery; but it needs to 'be aided by " deliberate action, or the main strtjp- " ture of the institutions upon which " our system is based may collapse "before natural forces can operate. " And, underlying the whole of what " lias been here discussed, there is the " fundamental question of the peace of " the world, which needs deliberate '/and determined support if it ia to " be.strong enough to restore confidence " and save us from another great " disaster. It may well be that, in "each of these different spheres, the " decisive steps will be taken in the "year which is now opening before " us."

Disarmament and Aviation. The British Government's scheme for international control of civil aviation, outlined in the cable news yesterday, is a bold and realistic attempt to solve a very difficult problem. The rapid development of aircraft since 1918 has conferred upon mankind a great instrument of unity; but it has also created a weapon the destructive potentialities of which are troubling the minds of all civilised peoples. Moreover, it is difficult, probably impossible, to limit those potentialities By the methods applied to naval and land armaments. Tho Disarmament Conference, with almost cynical readiness, has welcomed proposals to prohibit the construction of aircraft designed for bombing and to prohibit air attacks on civilians. As a few competent mechanics could in less than an hour equip an air liner for bombing activities, the prohibitions are not worth much. The willingness of all European governments to subsidise obviously uneconomic air services is clear proof that they regard civil aircraft as a military asset and intend, in time of war, to use them for military purposes. Both the British and the French Governments have now realised that unless restrictions on air armaments are supplemented by international control of civil aviation they will not be effective safeguards. The contention of the Federation of British Industries that the British Government's scheme will hinder the development of civil aviation seems shortsighted. The truth is that so far the [greatest obstacle to the effective de- | vclopment of civil aviation bas been the lack of co-operation among national units. The League's Air Transport Committee, which sat in 1927, began Its report with the following striking passage:— The; committee feels called on at the outset of the present report to record its view that the present situation of civil aviation, despite tho progress achieved, is not so satisfactory as • the state of technical development should permit, and that it is only by means of increasingly close international cooperation that this situation can be

improved. ... In view of the international nature of air transport and of the precarious results hitherto obtained, a definite programme of co-operation should be prepared, at any rate in the European area. It is certain that until sucli a programme is adopted civil aviation in Europe will remain on an uneconomic basis. At present all the great air iine3 are subsidised, the percentages varying from 35 to 90.

Brighter Elections

It is pleasant to find that, after three years of depression, the business of saving the country is at last receiving serious attention. Three months ago 'the mere elector might well have felt like a passenger on a ship in distress who scans an empty ocean. But now the political horizon is studded with rescuing sails. There is hardly a town in New Zealand that has not lately seen the launching of a new party or at least a branch of one. In Auckland the Seddonian Liberals, clad in outsized and outmoded political garments, are arranging an economic risorguneiito after the manner of the 'nineties. In Dunedin the All New Zealand party has been brought into being with a p'ot of paint. On Tuesday evening a modestly secret meeting in Christchurch examined the credentials of the New 1 Zealand Legion. This organisation differs from the others in that, although it will run candidates, produce a policy, and control the votes of its members, it is strictly nonpolitical. But it has been reserved for the rural fastnesses of Southland to produce the prophet of a really new order. He is Mr H. A. Holmes; and his party is the New Zealand Protection party. Its object is to make £SOO a year the legal maximum income. Mr Holmes, it appears, is one of the few men in the country who feel too wealthy. His income, he admits, is " much in excess of £500" a year, a fact which makes him so acutely unhappy that he has started a political party for the purpose of inducing Mr Forbes to tax him more heavily. It |is no longer a question of who will save the country but of who will save it first.