FINANCE AND COMMERCE.

Press, Volume LXV, Issue 19815, 31 December 1929, Page 10

FINANCE AND COMMERCE.

FARMING IN 1929. A REVIEW. AN IRREGULAR SEASON. The year now closing will go clown as one of exceptional variation, both in the matter of values for some of the major products and climaticallyThe worst of these variable periods, unfortunately, b in the final part of the year, for it is worse to have a present trouble than a pa.-.t one. Vt 00l is now lower in price than sine© the outorea.li of the war, and the export price of lamb lower than it has been for some vears. A pronounced easing in the dairy produce market is another factor contributing to a rather depressed atmosphere at the moment, and in the aggregate conditions are less satisfactory for the incoming seaeon than for some yea re. There is one compensating factor —i.e., the increase in production, which will retrieve some of the monetary loss the rural coniniuinty -will have to sustain from toe causes mentioned.

Meteorological. The season in Canterbury was an ideal one throughout the summer and autumn for farm work. Bam was sufficient to render the soil suitable lor tillage work, and the cropping programme was kept well up to time. There was more rain in the winter than was wanted, and this caused lone cropping interruption. It was accompanied on the high country by the worst conditions for some seasons, heaw snowfalls and extremely cold storms marking the winter months. Losses of hill sheep were heavier than usual as a result. With the advent or spring a period of exceptional dryness set in and all growth received a decided check. Heavy frosts were frequent and a low temperature added to the disabilities. Matters were becoming somewhat serious for crops, but pood rains commended to fall towards the end of November. Ample has fallen since and there has been a decided recovery in all classes of growth, particularly cereals and pasture, althoueh the rain arrived a month too late to secure the maximum benefit.

The Wheat Crop. The 1928-29 wheat crop was another food one, aggregating 8,832,864 ushels, compared with 9,541,444 bushels the preceding year. In the three years the aggregate yield averaged a shade over 8J million bushels, and the average per acre 35.76 bushels. The heavy yields meant a progressive carry over each year, with the result that the last crop was marketed under difficult conditions. Millers had secured by private contract all the wheat they required until well into the year. The Wheatgrowers* Association which had been organised in the meantime, commenced functioning, and it is undoubted that its existence prevented the flooding of the market with supplies and a consequent collapse m values. The latter averaged from 5s 8d to & lOd on trucks through the greater part of the season, and later the prices advanced another twopence or more a bushel.

The prospects for the incoming crop, however, indicate a substantially reduced yield per acre, in addition to which the area is less to the extent of 23,373 acres. The growing season, has been a rather erratic one and the best opinion puts the aggregate yield down at 7,200,000 bushels as against the average of the past three years of 8,875,580. It is expected that the shrinkage in the 1929-30 crop will cause the absorption of the heavy carry over, which each year recently has embarrassed the marketing of the succeeding crop. Millers are now buying on a basis of 5s 9d net on trucks for Tuscan, and 3d more per bushel m the case of Hunters,

' Other Crops. Other crops have Been small in bulk and as a result high in price. Perennial and Italian ryegrass, cocksfoot, and white clover have been sold at very satisfactory prices, and as the carrv-over from the present year is •mail and the prospective yield for the current season on the light side, the possibilities are that prices will remain Oats hare sold satisfactorily, and chaff, consequent on an increasing demand from the North Island and a big consumption on the farm on awsount of the wintry season, jumped to an unusually high price. A very heavy quantity of chaff was sold at from £5 10s to £5 15s a ton on trucks, a figure substantially above that o* recent years. Peas have slumped badly on the English market, and the local production is likely to diminish rather substantially. The collapse of tha Home outlet has been one of the disappointments of the grower. Another unpayable product has been cowgrass, due to a heavy production of inferior quality seed.

Potatoes sold at reasonably good prices for most of the season, and at high figures spasmodically. However, the market slumped over the final stages of the season, and, as usual, a few —not a small few, by any means —were badly "left." A good deal of business has been done by merchants with farmers for the new crop at from £3 15s to £4 a ton on trucks. This i« quite a good price in -view of the reduced cost of production on account of the machinery that is now available in the planting of this crop. The prospects for the current year are for a very light oats crop, also a moderate seeds output, and a good one of potatoes.

WooL The great collapse of the year concerns the major product of the South s Island, and of Canterbury in particular. This is wool. The average price last season tor Canterbury approxim*ted £2l los a bale. This season the average, on . present prices, will scarcely return £ls 10s a bale, or a drop of approximately 90 per cent. The dip approximated in weight last season 112,000 bales, so that the decline of < £6 odd a hale represents the rather ' formidable sum or over £650,000 odd. Tho larger flocks will offset the decline to some extent. The drop in values represents a decline in the Dominion j return froni Wool of something like '> four millions of money. So much has boon written concerning j the wool slump that it is unnecessary

f to enter into any discussion here. The I one consolation is that will is now at ! a price that should allow its use to be fully employed and thus assist it to recover the ground that it has lost this last year or two as the result of the increasing use of artificial substitutes. Export Meat Season. The meat export season of 1929 was a satisfactory one to the producer. The price of lambs was very regular, opening over all at 101 d for best grades, receding to 9Jd for a few weeks, and recovering again to Mutton sold particularly well, best ethers ranging from "Id to a shade better. n?xt grade from 6£d to 7d, «nd others 4id to 6d, the best ewes averaging round about 54d. Unfortunately, these prices were well in adv.inre of the Home market, and operators in this part of the Dominion, at all events, hare had a disastrous year. i Fleavy losses hare had to be met, and to recover some of this ground it is inevitable that operators will have to curtail per !b prices to a minimum. i The season has opened at BJd to B|d a l lb, approximately lid less than last

season. Farmers generally accept this as quite a satisfactory price under the circumstances. Nevertheless, it represents approximately 4s 6d per lamb, and more than this per mutton carcase. This means for the Dominion a decline in net income to the farmer, on the nine million carcases exported, of something over £2.000,000, and to Canterbury not far short of half a million of money. The increase in flocks will help to offset thiy decline to a material extent, much more so than in the price of wool.

Local Stock Market. The local stock market was a fairly satisfactory branch during the year. Under this heading come beef and mutton for local consumption and store sheep for stocking up. Towards the end of the autumn there was a definite slide in the value of ewes, approximating 6s to 7s per head, but there was a good 50 per cent, recovery later. However, the long continued dry spell in the spring created a pessimistic feeling, and all classes of store stock receded in value. Dry sheep were in particularly poor request, prices for these showing a pronounced recession compared with twelve months ago. With the arrival of the spring rains there was more movement in the market, though prices appreciated to only a small extent. The meat market for local needs was one of the best in recent years. Up till the end of the spring mutton realised prices little below those of the corresponding part of the preceding season, this being due to the comparative absence of prime fattened stock. In the last month or more the standard of values on account of the heavier supply has eased to near the point at which it is expected export prices will operate. It is many years, however, since beef has sold at such uniformly high and steady prices. For most of the winter well finished beef ranged round about 45s per lpOlb, there being occasional sales where up to 50s, or even more, operated. Thia remunerative standard of values should encourage more attention being paid to beef production in future. Supplies of fat cattle arrived regularly during the spring and early summer from the North Island, and with the margin represented by transport costs to help southern growers, it is reasonable to suppose that the latter could extend, their beef raising activities very substantially.

The Increased Flocks. The better side is represented by the substantial increase in the number of sheep carried in the Dominion during the past five years, the official statistics showing that in the 1928-29 season the number of sheep and lambß in New Zealand at April 30th, was 29,051,382 compared with 23,775,776 in the 1923-24 season, an increase in five years of 5,275,606. In Canterbury this season there are 5,544,167 sheep, compared with 4,453,312 five years ago, an increase of 1,090,855. The increase in the province over last year is 287,000. This number should assist to add to the weight of wool and frozen meat produced- /

The Dairy Industry. The value of our exports of butter for the 1928-1929 season amounted to £12,744,992, while cheese exported in the same period was valued at £6,889,993. The value of other dairy products exported amounted to £551,607. The market at Home had its ups and downs, but on the whole it was on a fairly even level. Large quantities of butter were shipped to Canada during the season, and this no doubt was of material assistance in, maintaining values on a fairly satisfactory basis. Tt is good to be told authoritatively that the quality of our butter is improving, thus enit to hold its own in any market on which it is placed. When there was a slump on the Home market all imported butters shared in it, Danish prices being on. a par with those for New Zealand.

The year was also a satisfactory one in regard to cheese. One of the most interesting results of the past season was the success of standardised cheese, New Zealand being able to make a cheese equal to the best full-cream cheese from any part of the world. An interesting development during the year was the effort towards organised marketing. The manufacture of condensed milk does not rank so high as other branches of the dairy industry, but it has attained considerable proportions in Auckland and Southland, and a substantial overseas connexion for sweetened condensed milk has been built up. The new season opened with a substantial increase in production on the corresponding period of lastyearl Prices opened at a satisfactory level, but in October an easing set in. A number of minor reasons are set down as the cause of the decline, but the movement continued longer than expected. However, the latest advice is to the effect that the market is "steady," which may be the precursor to an improvement. Dairy cows, in milk and dry, this year number, according to the statistics, 1,971,063, as compared with a total of 1,312,589 five years ago. These totals are for the Dominion as a whole, but taking the provinces separately it is seen that in Canterbury at the present time there are 168,724 cattle, 70,746 of these being in milk and 4605 dry. In Canterbury five years ago there was a total of 214,360 cattle, 86,816 of these being in milk and 11,918 being dry. It will thus be seen that there are 16,070 fewer cowl in milk in Canterbury today than was the case five years ago. It is admitted that Canterbury is not a dairying district in the sense that dairying is carried on in the North Island, where the rainfall is much heavier, and where Nature is so kind that there is practically growth of grass throughout the winter as well as the summer months. On many of the high-priced lands of the North Island, moreover, it is not possible to earn interest on the capital outlay except by dairying.

Prospects. The year to come will not produce a revenue equal to that of the one at an end. All classes of agricultural products, as distinct from pastoral, appear as if they will meet with a ready and payable market. The. values that will rule for frozen, meat will be lower, but not altogether unsatisfactory. Dairy produce may be classed similarly. The outstanding cause of concern is wool, but we are authoritatively assured that in this important product the worst has been passed, and that, even if values do not advance, thev are unlikely to faU further. HIGH COMMISSIONER'S REPORT. [THE PBBSS Special Service.] WELLINGTON, December SO. The Department of Agriculture has received the following cablegram, dated the 23tfr instant, from the High Commissioner for New Zealand, London:— All markets are of a holiday character. Eggs; —The exchange closed this week, and no business of any importance is passing. Hemp—The market is quiet, and there is no movement in prices. New Zealand is not offering," ahd values are unchanged.' Wool —In view of the steady decline in values, the trade is waiting for a new basis to be established. Bradford tops, 40' a prepared, are quoted at Is 6d. Other counts are unchanged. Tallow —Prices are nominally unchanged. There trill be no auction, until the New Year.