WOOL AND MEAT.

Press, Volume LXV, Issue 19735, 27 September 1929, Page 3

WOOL AND MEAT.

RETROSPECT AND PROSPECTS. PYNE, GOULD, GUINNESS*, LTD. REVIEW. The annual Review issued by Pyne, Gould, Guinness, Ltd.—the 29th year of issue—for 1928-29 is to hand. As usual it gives a comprehensive summary of the past season's principal features relating to primary production and values and also useful observations in regard to future markets.. Wool. The Eeview remarks that it "came rather as a shock to find that the stability of the market, about which so much has been written, was still somewhat elusive, as evidenced by the season's vagaries, and it looks as if a still lower basis must be reached before real" stabilisation ean set in. Fine wools are still at a payable figure, but inclined to weaken, while crossbreds are on the whole steadier. In the middle of the season word was received that on the Continent there had been some large failures in the wool trade, which had a far-reaching effect, and no doubt the market was affected to some extent, owing to the lack of confidence engendered." Mention is made of the competition of artificial silk and also to the crea-. tion of a French inventor who has patented a process for the manufacture of synthetic wool t which can be produced at a very low cost (about onethird of the cost of natural wool, it is claimed) from • vegetable fibre. It is not used by itself, however, but mixed with real wool. If it proves a success, the fact will have to be accepted that another real menace to wool has arisen. The position is serious as yet, but it certainly behoves woolgrowers to concentrate on keeping up the quality of their flocks and trying for increased yields. . Local Sales. Local sales, it is observed, continue to increase very rapidly, and the day is fast approaching when the whole of the Dominion's clip will be offered in New Zealand, in spite of the special pleading of representatives of interests at the other end of the world. Some of the statements attributed to these gentlemen are very wide of the mark and display a lamentable. ignorance of their subject. They can be disproved with ease. They have already been effectively dealt with by the wool brokers and the Press of the Dominion. An eminent Bradford authority is quoted to the effect that "the offerings in London are becoming less every year," having declined from 1,166,652 bales in 1923 to 548,281 bales in 1928. "Now it is being asked whether London is going to be merely an emergency market to supply a temporary shortage in any particular consuming centre," states this authority. New Zealand actually catalogued in its short season 572,454 bales of wool, as against 584,281 catalogued by London in the whole of 1928, with the whole world to draw from. Further comment is unnecessary. Future Prospects. Future prospects are notoriously difficult to forecast. The change of Government in the Old Country may have a distinct bearing on the matter in mcfre ways than one. Resumption of trade with Eussia, for instance. We have not yet seen the report of the

recent Trade Delegation to that country, but individual members have been anything but optimistic. Meantime the July sales in London have recorded a further decline in the prices of all wool. Some recent advices from London point to a feeling that towards the end of the year prices may firm again. We trust so, but would not build on it. The production of wool has steadily increased " since 1922 to the extent of quite 16 per cent, up to 1927, but was still slightly under prewar scale. This, coupled with the fact that all the wool Droduced has been readily absorbed, shoul* give a feeling of confidence as to the future. More we do not care to say. Frozen Meat. Reviewing the meat export year it is stated that many purchases made during the past season must have been unprofitable. "While, of course, every farmer likes to get the best price he can, we believe tha A most of them will agree that unduly high prices at the beginning of the season are a positive source of danger, as they result in inflated ideas of the values of stock, which influence the prices of stores and eventually cause farmers to lose a great deal more than they have gained from the initial high price. We have often repeated that the best thing for the producer is a reasonable price at the beginning of the season, increasing with the growth of wool. This ideal, of course, cannot always be achieved owing to fluctuation in the market, but we are satisfied that it would be to the advantage of everybody if the operators did not open out at unduly high pries, and thus create a false level of prices at a critical moment." The British Market. The average prices on the London market during last year were higher than they had been for the previous two years, but during the English autumn, beginning in September, prices suffered a rather severe set-back, both

in lamb and mutton, largely due to a very fine autumn and early winter bringing forward bigger supplies than usual of home-killed sheep and lambs. . . . Values improved towards the end of the year, and were responsible for the unduly high opening prices in New Zealand mentioned earlier. Prices then remained barely firm and showing signs of weakness until early in July a pronounced weakness became' evident, and at the time of "writing the value of prime Canterbury lamb : U/36 at BJd per lb on Smithfield is ljd per lb lower than it was at the same time last year. This is a fair indication of the weakness which is said to have been brought about by unduly early and heavy TLonaie-killed supplies. The decrease in the demand for mutton is another symptom of the movement in favour of the smaller joint, and it is fast becoming true that mutton is not bought by the individual small housekeeper at Home, but only by hotels and institutions of one sort and another. So far as Australia is concerned she again exported a comparatively small quantity of lambs, about 1J million, but in mutton she exported the biggest quantities since 1923. The general opinion is that lamb shipments for the coming season will probably be between a quarter and a half of a million more than last year, although if weather conditions improve there is a possibility of an increased export of perhaps a quarter of a million. We feel that we ean look forward with assurance to a continuance of reasonably good markets, and we sincerely hope that the experience of the past season when prices started high and then slumped will not be repeated. The live stock statistics hold out an excellent promise for the future, and we are optimistic enough to believe that they will still further be increased. The Future. After two exceptionally good seasons for prices and weather conditions this province cannot, under the law of averages, expeet to be similarly favoured during the coming year, aad

at the time this "EevieV is going to press indications all point to lower prices for our products.' Fortunately, the Dominion is carrying, despite the large increases in recent, years, more ewes and dairy cows' than ever previously recorded, and after the mild winter -our exports may * again' prove a record for the quantity produced, although prices are likely to be disappointing. Our wool article shows-that prices will probably be lower when compared with the past two seasons, but the quantity and quality should be satisfactory, and as the world has no large accumulated stocks we can only hope for one of those unexpected rises in the wool price chart. The Dominion has never possessed more capital available for investment,' and except for the demand from Australia and the high price of call money in New York owing to the extraordinary' gamble in: industrial shares which still - continues unabated, interest rates in New Zealand would undoubtedly be cheaper. -New York is attracting money from all centres, including London, because of the high rates of interest available. This keeps money dear in London, where New Zealand surplus funds can 'be profitably invested at short call. .This is also the case in Australia, where money is likely to become dearer.