THE WHEAT STOCKS.

Press, Volume LXIV, Issue 19502, 26 December 1928, Page 11

THE WHEAT STOCKS.

The inaccuracy telegraphed from Wellington which was responsible for the wheat stocks as at November 30th being recorded as 5,722,700 bushels, instead of the correct figure of 3,069,000 bushels, caused some concern, although it was fairly obvious to those whose business it is to keep informed on such matters that a mistake had been, made somewhere. The stocks are set out in the Gazette under three headings—"districts," stocks "held'' by millers, merchants, and farmers, and stocks "owned" by millers, merchants, and farmers. _ Naturally it is the same wheat that is scheduled under the different headings, and the mistake occurred in adding the totals of the wheat "owned" and -"held." The inaccurate figures have unwittingly been accepted by the North Island papers, which naturally point to the probability of a big carry-over into the new season. In turn this may have tended to strengthen an argument against the continuanceoorf r the' present protection on the assumption that sufficient wheat would be grown with less assistance to growers in the way of a duty. However, the carryover, notwithstanding the record harvest, will not be anything like the inaccurato figures indicated, although it will be of sufficient size to require careful handling by the Growers' Association when that body commences to operate next month. The feature of the return as it affects farmers is the proportion of wheat owned by millers, as on it depend the extent and the time of the millers' entry into the market. It is generally believed that millers as a whole hold enough wheat to carry them along comfortably into the new season, and that their forward contracts will enable them to carry on for three or four months further, without having either to buy from carried over stocks or from the new season's lioncontract wheat.' It is suggested that this possibility may make it extremely difficult for the new Association to function, particularly in respect of the approximate 1,G00,000 bushels that will be carried into the new season. The stocks owned by millers totalled 1.921.670 bushels. To this has to be added the flour held by millers and merchants, as it affects the quantity of wheat required to' be bought bv millers. In ' this case it reaches 511.000 bushels, expressed in wheat quantities, or a gross total of 2.462,000 bushels of milling wheat. The needs of tho country—exclusive of poultry—average a little over 6i million bushels annually, and the quarter to be still suppplied out of the stocks should absorb just on 1J million bushels, or approximately three-quarters of a million bushels less, than the carryover in millers' hands. This threequarters of a million bushels represent only about six . weeks' supply. The foregoing makes no allowance for wheat and flour that may be imported during the current three mouths, but with the carry-over of matured wheat this season,• this probably will be less than usual. The position, therefore, is that new season's wheat should have to be. secured by the. milling' trade towards the end of April, and the extent to which the Association may find its earlier operations affected will be ruled by the quantity of wheat privately contracted for by millers. Theso observations are based*on the suggestion that millers may take up the attitude of "holding off", from buying Pool wheat as long as possible. There is no evidence that, they will adopt this policy and they will be short-sighted if they did. The protection' -was given to encourage wheat-growing, and it is not to the millers' interests to raise any trouble requiring further investigation. There is always the risk that such an investigation might reveal to the public the fact that the millers, have profited more than anybody by the Government's intervention of seme years ago in the wheat and flour business.

As against the stocks owned by millers those in ihe hands, of merchants and farmers at November 30th -were: Milling, 137,966 bushels owned by merchants, 613.734 owned by farmers: other than milling. 201.H00 and 150.800 respectively ; in stack 34,700 bushels (estimated). CURRENT TOPICS. THE POTATO CROP. Garden growers of potatoes -were surprised last week when lifting a few shaws to find that the tubers underneath were in a rotting condition. The two or three cases instanced occurred on strong ground, on which the recent rains were slow in getting away, and the fact that the tubers would be much more developed than main crop potatoes probably would make them more susceptible to damage. However, there is just a little fear in some quarters that the excess of rain during the last fortnight has detrimentally affected the crop. , THE WHEAT YIELD.

The wheat crops appear to have come through the last-fortnight's exeess of rain witifr a minimum of damage, and in cases with decided benefit. Generally, they are looking well, and promise to vield fully up to normal, which over the past ten years was 31} bushels to the acre. However, last year's exceptional average of 36J bushels need not he expected. One extensive grower in the Rakaia district informed "Straggler" that, as far as that part of Canterbury was concerned, second crop land promised a substantial decline -on last year. In his own case he expected up to 15 bushels an acre less on the fields he had in for the second time. In the aggregate the area of such laud is not extensive, but the 60" and 70 bushel returns that were fairly numerous last season, and which did so much to in- , crease the general average, will be in much fewer numbers in the forth coming threshing. A 32-bushel yield from the 255,000 acres estimated to be under crop represents- a gross return ,of a little over eight million bushels, no more than the. Dominion's annual requirements. EXIT THE BABBIT! Prom all quarters comes the spme satisfactory report —i.e., that the rabbit is a thing of the past in many districts, and is rapidly becoming so in others. This position, in the back country, has been brought about by the relentless destruction of the pest ereated by the price for skins, aided by the continued poisoning policy pursued by property owners, and, it should not be overlooked, the vigilance of the Stock Department. It is to be feared that the position would not be anything like it is had the Department not taken the steps it did when the-pest Tivas at its worst,

four or five years ago. The traveller to-day can pass through whole districts without seeing half-a-dozen rabbits. A few years ago it would be difficult to find half-a-dozen districts that were freo of them. NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CROPS. Estimates issued recently of the wheat crops in the northern hemisphere this season show that a substantial increase in production has occurred in both European and non-European countries. Various countries in Europe are estimated to have harvested 1,3i35),540,000 bushels, compared with 1,263,480,000 bushels ?or 1927, while non-Euro-pean yields arc placed at 1,858,080,000 bushels, agaiust 1,790,080,000 bushels last season. In Europe the increases this year are most marked in Italy, Hungarv, Jugo-Slavia, and Rumania. The gain in Hungary is about 16,000,000 bushels, in Italy it is more than 32,000,000 bushels, in Jugoslavia it is nearly 24,000,000 bushels, and in Rumania it is more than 32,000,000 bushels. British production shows a decline of about 5,000,000 bushels, and that of Spain about 10,000,000 bushels. The outstanding increase in output of wheat in non European countries is in Canada, which has registered an increase of, roundly, 70,000,000 bushels. United states production more than bushels greater than for 19-7, and the Algerian crop was also heavier. On other hand, the Egyptian yield Lasi fa cn by 5,000,000 bushels, and that « British India is loss by more than 44,000,000- bushels. Tho figures for Luiope exclude Russia, where production _ placed at 856,000,000 bushels, against 752,000,000 bushels in 1921. TRACTOR V. HORSE. Discussions in regard to the relative merits of the tractor and the horse team " occupy quite an amount of the time of conferences of Victorian farmers. This is natural in view of the fact that there were at last census no fewer than 9000 agricultural tractors iii the State. In New Zealand there are about; 3000 odd. Que speaker at a meeting recently expressed the belief that draught horses would soon go out of use for farm work to the same extent as the light horse had disappeared from the roads. A chorus ot "Nevers" greeted this prediction. Nevertheless the weight of opinion was decidedly in. favour of the tractor where areas were large and the growing of horse feed in new areas a problem. One speaker, instancing his own district, where he reckoned 1000 tractors had displaced good horses, presented some calculations. The feed requirements of the 1000 horses lie put down at one ton a week for a team of eight, or 52,000 tons a ychr. With chaff at £5 a ton, farmers thus lost a market at their own doorstep which was. worth £260,000 annually. Tho cost- of running 1000 tractors for 11 mouths of the year was assessed at £396,000, .-practically, tho. whole ; pf which, he stated, went outside' • Australia. Wheat sold at 4s a bushel from .the area (35,000 acres) that would have produced the fodder for the horses would realise £149,722, leaving- tractor owners in the position of having to sell an additional £246,178 worth of wheat to pay for their fuel bill. "What effect lias this on tho world's wheat market if all large wheat growing countries are doing the same?" The report from Which we quote quite naturally concluded "that no one was prepared to discuss the points raised." LAMB MORTALITY. OVER-NUTRITION. SCEPTICAL SHEEPOWNERS. Lamb mortality in Central Otago is still causing farmers heavy loss anc i great anxiety (says the "Otago Daily Times"). The Veterinary Division of the Department of Agriculture has now spent' several seasons investigating the causes of tho trouble, and from tima to time announcements have been made m the Departmental journal to the effect that over-nutrition is at the bottom of the mysterious deaths which occur with such disconcerting frequency every year. This put in a highly technical and involved form is apparently tne considered opinion of those who have been engaged in the laboratory and on tho farm in research activities. This statement of the case, however, does not appeal to Mariiatoto sheepowners, who consider that, the correct diagnosis of the trouble ■ is ■ yet to be found. Investigators say that overnutrition has been the cause of the trouble, but there is nothing very definite to prove it. and no one to gainsay it. • _ • If information received from sheepowners can be relied upon, the Departmental opinion is a preconceived one that is not tho result of researches on the spot. One farmer sa j" that the diagnosis that is offered to them to-day is word for word the same I as another which has been adopted 'P Scotland for 100 years. Local experience has demonstrated that the root of the trouble ha"! not yet been found, and since the Department of Agriculture seems to be disinclined to admit the possibility of there being any other cause, sheepmen in the Maniatoto County are determined to show their lack of confidence in the findings_ already made by instituting investigations on their own account, engaging their own experts to carry out research independent of the Department. This decision has been come to as a result of the widespread dissatisfaction in the district. Soih'e of -the largest flocks in the Ranfurlv district have _ had a much more fortunate year this season as a result of later lambing. One farmer with 1-500 lambs, who has been a heavy loser ill the past, arranged things so that his lambina should commence some weeks later than usual, with the result that his deaths totalled six. Anothfer flockowner. who lost- 50 lambs, arranged that his lambing should, be a counle oF weeks later, and lie. is now convinced that had be postponed it another Week hi< losses would baye been necrlicible. This is interesting_ in view of tbe unsympathetic reception accorded the over-nutrition theory, and these facts will form one of the points from which the farmers' investigators will work out their theory of causes and cure.

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