The French Elections.

Press, Volume LX, Issue 18073, 15 May 1924, Page 8

The French Elections.

The latest news of the Preach elections confirms rather than removes the impression that the defeat of M. PoincanS was a surprise. While it has always been our opinion that his Euhr policy would sooner or later bring the Premier to grief, the indications of the last few weeks have been that he was rather gaining ground with the French public than losing it. His melodramatic resignation at the end of March gave him the opportunity to reconstruct his

Cabinet, and he did this with such rathless thoroughness that even his enemies supposed him safe again. The "New "Statesman," fof example, a typically hostile British journal, warned those Who wished for his fall not to let wishes father their thoughts. For a Cenfre-Kight Government M. Poincare had substituted a GoYernment of the Centre-Left, and since the alternatives to bo a strong man with a compact middle party and a loosely knit flanking party without any outstanding figure at all, the "Statesman" concluded that the Premier would again win. It was, in fact, the Common opinion in London and Paris after the new Ministry was announced —and now the prophets are all wrong. The Government has been condemned so unequivocally that the Premier will resign as soon as the Chamber meets, and it is possible that oven the President will resign. Xor can anyone say yet who the nest leader will be. The new Pre inier may be the ex-Premior M. Briand, a member of the Left who was rejected after the Cannes Conference for listening top sympathetically to Lloyd Ueorge. It may be-anotlier ex-Premier, M. Painleve, a man with a European reputation as a mathematician, but a very ordinary name in polities. It may even (after a little interval) be the notorious M. Caillaux, his being the only personality among the Hadicals as impressive as M. Poincare's.

But the natno of the next leader hardly matters. The important fact in the meantime is that Franco has found ruthlessnoss too costly. The swing to the Left is no idealistic movement inspired by international love, but primarily a protest against heavier taxes. The Premier himself has been almost wholly a Foreign Minister, and in foreign affairs occupied almost exclusively with Germany. Until the other day he had hardly even glanced at domestic affairs, and he had already, in forming his new Cabinet, made a scape-goat of his Minister of Finance. But the fact remained that the taxes had jumped 20 per cent. The -peasant, who had always resisted taxes, and been encouraged to believe that he could go on resisting- and escaping, found himself confronted suddenly with a demand for another franc. The artisan, who had been told so often that "Germany "would pay," began to feel that lie had been deceived. The whole nation, began to feel that the world wis not with it in its German policy, and that M. Poincare's strong hand in the Ruhr was proving too strong. And although the new Cabinet promised better things :<—peace, an amicable settlement of reparations, and immensely easier times at home—the public apparently remained sceptical. Probably, too, the Premier himself believed that i the German elections would show la violent- swing to the Bight, and I that reaction in one country would I naturally arouse reaction in th 6 other;

We shall misunderstand the position altogether if we the defeat of the Government to pious and generous principles. We shall also make a grievous mistake if we suppose that the Left has no. regard for tho treaty of Versailles. Until the new Government is known, and has been seen in action; it will not be possible to say ! what changes tho verdict will make in Europe, but it is quite safe to assume that a French radicnl does not differ profoundly from a French reactionary -when the question is who shall pay for the war. We Bhall be wise if we expect no more than that M. Pbincarf's policy will be modified to the extent at least of facilitating an agreement with the reparations committee of experts.