The Future of Shipbuilding.
..Whatever other industries may languish it is cortain that during the next two or threo years, and possibly longer, all tho shipyards of the world will bo feverishly busy in trying to replace tho terrible wastage of tho war, and, if possible, to cope with tho new dojnands which are suro to be made in connexion with tho repatriation of troops and the' reconstruction of countries laid waste by the war. The United States, which, owing to economic causes with which most students are familiar, havo lagged behind in the matter of shipbuilding, aro already experiencing a boom, and American shipbuilders intend to strain every nervo to retain the business which they are now gaining. Recent cable messages have told us of the proposal to turn out a largo number of wooden vessels as rapidly as possible as one means of coping ivith the submarino menace. But there is a great expansion in tho building of steel ships in American yards. . Boforo tho war American shipyards built no vessels for foreign owners, but now tho position is completely changed. From figures published in tho "American Exporter," we learn that whereas the total averago output for tho ten years before the war was only 250,000 tons, no less than 1,500,000 tons of vessels were under contract in American shipyards in Novombcr, 1916, including over 300 ocean-going vessels. Tho total output for 1917 is estimated at abont 1,000,000 tons.
Is there any chance of the supply or ships being overdone P There seems no such probability, at any rate, in the immediate future. In an address before the Society of Naval Architects and Marino Engineers of the United States in November last, Mr Stevenson Taylor, tho President, estimated that tho greatest production (the measure of capacity) of the world's yards up to 1915 was 3,5C}5,000 tons per annum. Ho further estimated that in the year 19.13, the capacity of the world's yards would be about as follows United Kingdom, Colonics, and Canada 2,260,000, an increase of 14 per cent.-; United States Coasts and Great Lakes 826,000, an increase of 53 per cent.; Germany, 005,000, an increase of 30 per cent., and all other countries 809,000, an increaso of 16 per cent. Tho grand total is 4,500,000, an increaso of 23J per cent.
So much for tlio production, but how about tho demand to bo supplied? Mr Stevenson Taylor estimates th e normal tonnage of the world this year at about 50,000,000 tons. Of this there had been up to the time he spoke a tonnago destroyed, 5,000,000; commandeered, 12,000,000; intarned, 4,500,000, making a total withdrawn of 21,400,000. This left available for regular service not more than 23,600,000, or 57.2 per cent, of the normal tonnage, which readily accounts for present high freights and the inflated prices fetched by old vessels. Presuming that peace will be restored by the end of 1917, Mr Stevenson Taylor further estimated that we have present available tonnago as above, 28,600,000; commandeered and interned ships released, 16,400,0vaJ ; probablo production in tlio year 1917, 3,000,000 ton 3, a total of 45,000,000, less future destruction, scrapping, and depreciation, 4,000,000 tons, leaving au availablo tonnage of 44,000,000 tons. The same authority considers that at the end of 1918, should peace be rc * stored, there will certainly be required
55,000,000 tons, and that with estimated construction for 1918, 4.500,000 tons, there will be a dcficit at the end of • 1918 of 6,500,000 tons. A fresh era of • cheap freights is ccrtainly not in sight I at present.
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