The Wheat Market.

Press, Volume LI, Issue 15393, 25 September 1915, Page 10

The Wheat Market.

Tho wheat market has pursued an unusual course this year. Last year's stocks wero insufficient, and had to be added to by importations from Canada and Australia. The new harvest came in early, and as most of the grain was threshed out of stook, millers and merchants operated freely in order to secure some stock. The market opened in February at Gs 3d, and by the end of the month had reached 6s lOd to 7s. The Government statistician then published a forecast of tho harvest, which showed that there would only be an average of 25.96 bushels per acre, giving a total of 4,921,269 bushels, or over one million bushels below requirements. Although it was pointed out that this estimate was based upon crop reports that wero furnished before it was seen what an excellent effect tho rains at the end of the year had had upon the yield of the crops, the result of this estimate was to create a, still keener demand for wheat, and every offer of grain was accepted, a number of sales being made at OYer 7s at country stations. In some cases 7s 3d was refused by growers. The threshing returns completely reversed the statistical position, and instead of there being an estimated shortage there was au actual surplus. On Juno 30th a census was taken, which confirmed tho threshing returns, and showed that the quantity of wheat and flour was not only sufficient for seven months, but about three-quarters of a million bushels in excess of requirements. The price of flour rose until it had readied £17 10s per ton, but in July it began to fall, and now it is down to £14 locally and £13 in Duncdin. The fall has been attributed to southern millers forcing flour upon the market, and to considerable quantities of flour coming in free from America, the duty on flour having been suspended until December 31st next. There is no doubt that had it not been for the preliminary estimate of the Government statistician I>eing published, the wheat market would have eased naturally much earlier than it did, and millers and merchants would not now be as heavily stocked with dear wheat, which at the present prico of flour and the fall in tho wheat market, is going to mean a heavy loss to them. Tho actual surplus of wheat is probably larger than the statistics show, as the consumption of bread has been to some extent curtailed bv its high price. As millers and merchants were led into making heavy purchases of wheat at very high prices through the misleading estimate of the wheat yield—which of course also induced growers to hold out for extreme figures —it is a question whether tome ex-

portation of surplus wheat, under sharp restrictions as to quantity, should not be allowed, to relieve the position. Tho matter, however, is not easy to settle off-hand, and it is an important consideration that if exportation wore allowed there would undoubtedly follow a riso in the price to consumers in this countrv. Even if the present crop does not fulfil expectations, there will bo no fear of a scarcity of wheat next year, in view of tho fact that Australia will have an enormous crop, which it is expected will sell at considerably less than -3s per bushel.