DILEMMA OF THE LIBERALS.

Press, Volume LXVIII, Issue 14293, 2 March 1912, Page 9

DILEMMA OF THE LIBERALS.

A POLICY IN EACH POCKET.

FORECASTS SUMMARISED.

(SrtCIAL TO "THE TRESS"). WELLINGTON*, March 1

The Reform Party is not at all disheartened at tho result, of the division o.i tho no-confidence motion. On the contrary it regards its position as stronger than if it had won with the assistance of the pledge-breakers and tho Independents, who really seem to have no mind of their own, but simply go with the winning side. Tho Opposition feels certain that when the Houso meets later in the year it will havo at its mercy any Government that can be formed out of the remains of tho Liberal Party. The Government Party collectives- in caucus is endeavouring to put a good face, on tlio position, but individual members aro anything but cheerful over thc outlook. Their difficulty begins with Cabinetmaking. It seems generally agreed that the Hon. T. Mackenzie must be the new Pime Minister, and it is suggested tha. with him will bo associated Messrs Laurenson. Myers, Reed, Wilford, Ngata, Veitch. and Russell. Thero is some doubt as to whether Mr Wilford could be included, as his health would be unlikely to stand the strain of office, and there is also a doubt about Mr Yoiteh accepting a portfolio, as tho policy of Labour is to remain absolutely independent of both parties. The moment it becomes associated in a Ministry it loses its identity, and that is not in accord with tho new policy of Labour. Such _ Cabinet would certainly be a queer mixture, seeing that in its ranks wou'.d be represented the freehold policy, the leasehold policy, the brewers and Labour. It is also to bo noted that Otago would be without a representative. It seems certain that Mr Masssy would smash such a combination within two or three weeks of its meeting the House. In order to become aa effective force in tho country such a combination would require to keep two policies in its pockets, one for tho moderate wing and ono for the ultra-radicals and the Labourites. Mr Ell is not mentioned as a Minister but ho might bo provided for by giving him-the Chairmanship of Committees. Tho fact that thero aro so many Canterbury men in the party will mako Cabinet making all tho moro difficult.

Sir Joseph Ward's position is uncertain. He might be anything from a sort of power behind the throno or Prime Minister under' tho rose, to a rather unimportant and diminishing force in the dynamics of the ranks. One idea is that he will go out of New Zealand politics and take tho British Commercial Commissionership for which colonial representatives will be required for a number of years at a salary of £2000 a year, with travelling expenses. Meantime thero seems to be no place for Sir James c/arroll, Messrs Millar, R. Mclvenzio and Buddo, they are to bo dropped overboard, and onl> Messrs T. Mackonzio and Ngata retained. There is, of course, much speculation in thc air, but nothing definite will bo decided until tho party meets in Wellington in a fortnight*, time. Then they will choose a leader and ho will form his Cabinet. air McNab has been recently in close consultation with Sir Joseph Ward, and ho may bo chosen to lead in the Legislative Council, or to contest tho Awarua seat in tho event of Sir Joseph Ward resigning. .