MONDAY, JULY 8. 1907. THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

Press, Volume LXIII, Issue 12850, 8 July 1907, Page 6

MONDAY, JULY 8. 1907. THE WORLD'S WHEAT.

In our grain and produce market report on Saturday wo reprinted an extract from the "New York Commercial" of May 18th, which stated that after allowing for the tactics of " grain gamblers." an impartial observer -would be driven to the conclusion "that a material con- " traction in the foreign wheat yield " must be token for granted." Information dated a few daya later has now reached ua from London, confirming this opinion. It comes in the shape of a summary of the wheat harvest outlook in the principal graingrowing countries of the world, and it has been compiled with evident care for the weekly " Journal" issued by the Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. Tho writer repeats a statement of thn Washington Bureau, that in the United States 3,500.000 acres of wintor wheat have been "winter-killed," and it is expected that this crop will oe about 100,000,000 bushels less than last year. The spring wheat of North Dakota and Minnesota is also the subject of unfavourable reporte owing to the extreme lateness of the season. In Canada inclement weather had delayed the spring sowings, which, in Manitoba and the North-West, had scarcely begun on May Ist, and experience shows tint under such conditions the crop in those territories is seldom a heavy one. The

unfavourable weather of last winter, the writer ia tho "^Journal" further stated, had affected wheat crops in Europe. In Russia,' tho autumn wheal. in the districts Trhere, it is principalis grown, had sustained damage, which wae estimated in semi-official reports at 5 per cent, to CO per cent The spring wheat crop, owing to late sowing and Unfortunate weather, was described as precarious.. The writer does not mention the. Russian famine, but that, as a factor in reducing the wheat surplus, is probably, after all. of secondary importance, for, strange as it may appear, it is a fact borne out by experience that foodstuffs may be exported from the midst of a etaTving populace. In Roumania a loss of 25 per cent in the wheat crop was officially reported, while, according to unofficial estimates, the 1907 harvest would be 50 per cent, below that of 1906, when it was returned as 13,600,000 quarters. In Austria-Hun-gary, the Argentine and India, averago yields were expected, but no surplus was looked for. It was further believed that the supplies in the United Kingdom were . much smaller than usual.

From this summary of reports and forecasts, it is evident that there are ample grounds for believing that the world's wheat harvest will be a short one. The weather that prevails during the growth and ripening of the crops might, it was suggested, make the outlook more hopeful, but the cabled reports that have reached us from overeea do not show that this has been the case up to the present time. On the contrary, our London cable messages of June 28th and July 2nd told of hardening markets, unfavourable weather in Europe, and evidence " that tho Euro- " pean crops are considerably below "the average of the past fivo years." A New York cable message of Juno 28th stated that a revised estimate- of the wheat harvest placed the winter yield in the great grain area of Oklahama, Kansas, and Texae at fifty million bushels, compared with one hundred and eleven million bushels last year. It was further stated that a sensational advance in the American markets had resulted from this information being divulged. This is, no doubt, tho cause, •wholly or in part, of the "higher American quotations" which are mentioned in a cable we publish this morning as combining with the bad weather in Europe to produce a hardening ot the market* in England. In considering the crops and markets of the world, the wheat grown in New Zealand is, of course, a negligible fraction, but it ie interesting to note that the 6,605.253 bushels of the Government returns and the apparent surplns of 608.264 bushels are regarded by those interested in the local grain trade as too high. An article which we published in. our last) issue showed 1 that there are substantial grounds for this scepticism. If there are among our readers any who .expect the Government, by means of a State flour mill and a Board of Commerce to shut off from New Zealand wae influences oi oversea wheat markets, the information we have set out abovo may not greatly interest them, but to those who realise that economic forces cannot easily be diverted at will the prospect of a world-wide shortage of one of the prime necessaries of life will seem a matter of considerable importance.