THE WHEAT YIELD.

Press, Volume LXIII, Issue 12849, 6 July 1907, Page 10

THE WHEAT YIELD.

CRITICISM OF -THE DEPARTMENTS FIGURES. Tho publication of the Department of Agriculture's return of tho estimated grain yields for tho colony, based on tho ■threshing returns, has Riven rico to eritiei.sme \ry tliow intereet<>d in tho grain trade. Tim estimato of wheat production is generally looked upon as too high. An investigation of the Department's return for some years past lias brought to light tlio fact that the? <■« limit© of the surplus is not borne out by tho rot urn of stocks Inter in tho year. For i net unco, tho crop of IDUf) w;\fi estimated by Government at 80.GO bushels por acre, which would give a surplus at 31.hL October, 1906, of 3,553,1)73 bushels, but tho actual return of stocks at that date shows only 3,]'25,31)0 bushels, the deficiency showing an over-estimate of lAY 2 bushels ptsr aero in tho yield, making the actual yield 28. 0β bushels per acre, practically confirming tho first estimate made of 28 bushels por acre. Notwithstanding tho weather conditions experienced during tho laet sen.son, the 1907 crop is estimated to yield L'7.lH bu&hoJs p<»r Hero, or only 1J bushels less than the previous year, a result, which if revised, would bo a surprise to most people. It iv considered thnt the Deportment's «*- ---timate of 24 bushels jht aero, published on Muroh 4tb lust, was nearer the mark. An examination of tho retur-ns for tho past cix yen re shows llio following deucienvu'e in stocks, ncrording to farmere own returns, in October of each year, us compared with tho Department's estimates based on tho threshing returns:—----1900—2,187,116 bushels, equal to 8.11 bushola por aero. 1002—551,414 bushels, equal to 3.37 bushels per ncro. l!»03~813,G35 bushels, equal to 4.18 bushels per acre. 190-1—582,359 bushels, equal to 2.53 bushels per aero. UKVj—2,334.400 bushels, equal to 9.05 bueheJs per aero. 190(5—428,073 bushels, equal to 1.92 bushcJs [x?r aero. Tho result of enquiries amongst careful nnd reliable farmers and country merchants, wo aro informed, shows a consensus of opinion tlwit actual results of tho last harvt-fit will bo from 20 to 25 per cent, below th«> previous years, and taking this on tho Department'? own figures for IiJOO, makes their first estimate of 24 bushels for 1907 appear to Ixi nearer correct, and reducing tho yield accordingly shows that it is very p-rolilemwticul if there will bo any surplus. In correspondence which appeared in the papers a short time ago, it was Biitfgi'.stc'd that fanners aro uoliboratelv withholding information as to wheat on hand in ordor to make stocks appear Rinull, and consequently inflate market valiio, but it is pointed out that if that w«ro so, and the Department's returns reliable, the wheat must be visible by" thie time, in epito of the farmers, as from October, 1900, to October, 1900, there is a deficiency of 6,623,000 bushels between the actual returns and what the Department says should be on hand—a quantity about equal to one year's crop taken on thn average of the last seven years. This chargo against tho farmers can scarcely bo borne out, because in 1901, when the price of wheut right tli rough the yeer averaged nenrly, if not quite, the lowest on record, tho farmers actually returned 275,000 buehols more than the Department expected to find. Of the unexplained deficiency, over 2J millions has arisen during 1905 and 1906, and having regard to tho moisture of those. seasons, any_ experienced person will know that it is inadvisable to hold over such wheat, owing to it® liability to rapid deterioration in quality and loss in weight. The chief value of the statistics is that they go to show that at the best, taken on the result of our own harvest, the position of supplies and requirements will show a Tory email mnrgin either way. A3 to whether the recent rise in the prico of wheat and flour was justified, it is pointed out that the value of whent in London, February-March, w»s 30s to 30s 6d por 4801b c.i.f., but thie week a enlo was reported at 3Ce 7Jd, an advance of Gβ per quarter it) m market open to tho world's supplies. In Australia, with a largo surplus for export, tho voluo of wheit at the beginning of February was Adelaide 2s-IOJd, Melbourne 2a 11-Jd, Sydney 2e Hid j this week, it is 3s 10d, 4b, and 4s respectively. If such advancoa havo takon f<laco in a market whidi is open to the workls supplies, and also in exporting centres, it is not surprising, it is contended, in a mirket whero demand and supply is co nearly balanced, leaving tho actual position in doubt, that an even greater advance should occur.

In considering the arguments used nguinst the correctness of tho Departniont'e estimato of tho wheat yield, , and tho probablo surplus, it must be remembered that ilmnet all tho wheat ■was of milling quality this year. Only a small quantity was damaged by rain, and tho scarcity of fowl wheat is shown by tho fact tint it hjis been selling wifhin Id nnd 2d per bushel of tho price of milling wheat. ' Very littlo ■wheat would be used for pig feeding, for until the potato crop was nvnilablo, etoro pigs were almost unsaleable. Merchants havo used as an argument in support of a low wheat yield, tho fnct that they hnvo"not supplied nenr]y the usual quantity of cornsicks this year. One largo firm finds out that they sent out l?o per cent, less sacks this year than usual. The shortage in the demand is, however, largely accounted for by tho fnot that -theiro wie not only a shortage in the oats crop, but that n larger proportion of oats were put into stack inste4ftl of being threshed.

Regarding tho question of removing tho duty from wheat and flour, it is pointed out thnt it present values, Australian wheat might be landed in New Zealand, without duty, at about fld per bushel below the local price. That would bo equal to 10s per ton on flour, but bakers would not bo likely to take Jd ofF the 41b loaf on 3 reduction of MXs per ton in flour. But prices in Australia, which had eased lately, are on the rise iigniii. in svinpntliy with the London markets* so that the prospects of obtaining cheaper ■wheat from there, were the duty removed, flm not very bright. Some flour lias recently arrived from Australia, 2!'00 mo!;* l>eiiig reported as having been shipped from Melbourne- (ilso fil) wicks of wheat), and 67$ tons from ►Sydney, but flour will, of course, advance in nrir<» there in sympathy with wheat. No doubt, the question of tho removal of tlie dntv on whmt and flour will be brought up when the tariff 1H under consideration by Parliament.