THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

Press, Volume LVIII, Issue 11154, 21 December 1901, Page 4

THE INTERNATIONAL SITUATION.

lUANCE AND TURKEY.

ENGLAND AND RUSSIA.

(FBOM Otm SPBCIAIi COBBESPONDENT.) LONDON, November 8.

Although the despatch by France of a naval squadron to the JEgean, and the seizure of a Turkish Island, is one of those vigorous proceedings which usually make for war, the present trend of events appears. to be persistently pacific. The grave question is: How long will this continue to be the "case? . a

The Island otf Mitylene is a possession of. considerable importance, 'because it virtually commands both the Dardanelles and the Suez Canal. Possibly Russia migibt not be unwilling that so dominant a point should be held by her friend and ally, who doubtless would allow Russia, in case of need, to reap full advantage from such a position being held by France. But other European Powers do not seem to be disposed to tolerate a permanent occupation of-Mitylene by Francs. England hie not yet spoken, but the German Press is already hinting with quiet distinctness that , Germany could not acquiesce in such an arrangement. Nor oan even Turkey be ignored in the situation. True the Turkish Navy" is j quantite negligeable, but not the Turkish , Army, as the Russians, and later the Greeks, found out to their cost. If France t were forced to land troops, and fight on shore, she would-have a very tough struggle at the best, even with the/aid of Russia, and would have all her work cut out to secure a substantial victory. But Great Britain and the Triple iAlliance might also have something to say,, if JFrance should attempt any permanent annexation of Turkish territory. Already some of the French newspapers, with characteristic indiscretion, are beginning to Afer to Mitylene as a French pleasure resort of the future, and to foreshadow all sorts of ex-. ploitataon of the island so long faibons in' Greek son-g. A graver French view is that" Mitylene will form-an admirable counterpoise to the British 1 possession of Cyprus! .This view, may prove a very awkward and provocative one. The Sultan, who is the most, astute, as well as the .most unscrupulous otf all living diplomatists, has promptly seen, Cyprus ,in. a similar light, , sviz., as a fulcrum on which to rest . a ; diplomatic lever. He has pointed out that' under the Treaty of Cyprus, England guaranteed,the Porte against any violation of its domains. The crashing reply has been that this guarantee expressly specified as an essential condition, • the reform by the Porte of past abuses, : and the introduction, of good government, wfaereas, so far from this condition being fulfilled/ it hast been persistently and flagrantly disregarded by the Sultan, who has allowed- matters to drift steadily from 'bad to worse/ ', ' ; So it appears fairly certain, at present,' that England, will not "take a hand" ,in this latest gains. But it is the unexpected alone that can be confidently anticipated in each circumstances, and so it would be rashr indeed to prophesy. French journals are openly boasting that now-England's hands are full in Soutlh Africa, a capital opportunity id afforded to France to carry on her. own plans without any necessity to consult

I British opinion; that there will' be "no more Fashodas" for Fiance, and that she .and Bussia will "do just as they please. with the "'Sick Man" and his territories. But the French Government does not endorse or approve these vapourings. So far M. Loubet and his advisers have behaved with irreproachable, oorrectiCude. But they are playing with a powder magazine, and any moment & chance spark from one of their cigarettes may 'bring about the s»prexne explosion, and the Jfiuropean Armageddon. . , The Porte has ordered resistance to be offered tp any attempt by the French fleet to force the Dardanelles. The same order was given in wlien the British fleets was despatched -to Constantinople on the announcement ■of the treaty of San Stefano. But the British warships, passed through nevertheless, and unmolested. That experience might not be repeated in the case of France in 1901, but if it were not, the consequence would be almost unimaginable. Even now, France has largely increased her demands as a penalty for Turkey's nonaceep'tanee of her previous demand," and has announced that further demands will continue to be:added so long as Turkey holds but, and that once made they will be enforced at all costs.

High authorities here hold that should the Forte remain obdurate the French -wall be compelled to have a-try at the Dardanelles and then—? Just tirink of the illimitable floods of international possibilities that would be let loose by a single battle between France and Turkey) Itussia would almost certainly go in with- France. Neither England, Germany, Italy nor Austria -would willingly submit to see" the Mediterranean become a ''Franco-Russian lake, as it might well be with such a post as Mitylene virtually held by France and Russia., and with both of I these Powers possessing free passage through the Dardanelles. So we are manifestly on the verge of tremendous possibilities. All the clouds may yet roll by. If Abdul j Hamid can' for once be made to realise that France is serious, and that the other European Powers which he delights in playing off one against the other, .will not come to his ! aid, then~he may by timely surrender avert the threatened European cataclysm. But can he? The matter m its firet phase, at all events., is one of hard cash. His coffers are .empty. His, credit is exhausted. He can jonty procure the fundsvby some method of j mortgage which. has highly problematical chanoes of securing the sanction of the European concert. But if he could, and did, get the coin, and used it in satisfying the French claims, it is certain that France would then relinquish the portion of his territory which he has professedly only taken in pawn. judges ithink quite otherwise. The temptation will be very strong to hold a counterbalance to England's occupation of Cyprus and Egypt. The latter has already been mentioned, and the suggestion .is thrown out that France will promise to evacuate Mitylene when England-carries out Mr Gladstone's promise to leave Egypt. Here would enter innumerable fresh and difficult problems, whose solution nobody has yet been able to suggest. \. Moreover, it is" hard to believe that Russia from profiting in some way by France's, equeezeure "%f Turkey, coming as it does just when England's "hands are I most awkwardly hampered by the. South African : war. Those best able to judge do . not believe that Russia has any present or early intention of attempting the conquest of India. She appreciates more clearly now than formesly the difficulties with which Britain has had to contend in ruling that vast and populous Empire. Russia has all her work cut out just now in China, and the death of Id Hung Chang removes her, ablest and most highly subsidised Chinese assisi tant. ' '

.But tchat.Bussia means to do, and will do, is to keep the Indian threat ever hanging over England's head as -a means of restraint against British interference with Russian designs elsewhere. That is the object of jßuesia's constant 4 menace, upon ,the Afghan •frontier. And now. the favourite idea in. Russia's foreign policy ia to tighten the hold Jtussia has already, secured on Persia. •Financially, Persia is .virtually in the Hue-, icovite grip, and, it will not be Russia's* iaalt if she ever-escapes. - The present tenjdency Seems to be toward some modus vivendi between.England and Russia as regards' Persia. < Aidlividing line between British and influence has' 'been* suggested 'in jwhich the two countries should prevail, the tone, in the north, the other in .the couth, of * Persia. 5 But whether anything , will satisfy Russia short of free access to the Persian ' Gulf and a coaling statdon there, and whether itfois desire can be gratified without-damage ,to British interests, it is hot easy to fare- j 'see, but such an outcome certainly does eesm ' ': —as Mr Montague Tigg once observed— .•"most confoundedly improbable." It will thus be seen* that—even passing pver many other questions of deep interest in * the - present international situation throughout the world, there are plenty of ■ nuts quite hard 'enough to try the strongest diplomatic teeth.. England is fortunate in stall possessing the most experienced of European. statesmen in Lord Salisbury, but are. his vigour and readiness «qual to his un-1 questioned astuteness and clear-sightedness? ! Wβ must hope so, but only the event can solve the problem.