BRITAIN'S COAL SUPPLIES.

Press, Volume LVIII, Issue 11010, 6 July 1901, Page 6

BRITAIN'S COAL SUPPLIES.

The recent high price of ooal in Englaad, ' together with the export tax, lias brought * to tile surface again a topic that was discussed a generation ago. In 1865, Profeeeer - Jevdna and others predicted a speedy ea> • haustion of British ooal. Jevons estimated the available supplies at 83,000 million tone. '_"* Taking the output from the previous tea years, and estimating .that the rate of is» crease then going on would be maintained, *3 the Professor arrived at the startling conch*- a ""£ , sion that a little more than a century woultT suffice to leave Britain bankrupt of the V, moat essential element of her trade and ~%1 power. In 1866 a Royal Commission was .'. appointed to investigate this question, and ,<i in 1871 it reported that the amount of coal'" : i in seams of not less than a foot thick, and "r----within 4000 feet of the, surface, was 146,464 ; \ million tons. This was made up of 90,200 -i million tone within the borders of the ex* ?>- ---posed ooal fields, and of 56,248 million tons : estimated to lie under the Permian and v other formations. V This latter is only on paper, and may -„.- ■have no existence in fact. The thirty yean 5£ that have elapsed since the report wai *>', made aro a sufficiently long periodi to afford a reasonable test of the prophecies of ex.-. ' hauetion. The amount of coal raised in the '| period haa oeen 5025 million tone, that i»|V-S one-eighteenth of the visible supply of 1870, \ and one-thirtieth of the theoretical supply, This does not mean that it \rill take eigi- ~ J * teen times thirty years to use up the visible ■ -•' supply. It is the enormous rate of in- , -

crease that causes alarm. In 1870 the oufc» put was only 110 million tons. La«t year ( !,' it was 230 million torts. Shouldi this in-'s* crease be continued it ie obvious that the , » next term of thirty years would burn ' " not one, but two-eighte<«itihs of the visible !/• supply, while a third term would burn , four-eighteenths, and 1 a fourtih- term eiglit* , eighteenths. The actual results of experi- j ence are greatly below Jevons'a estimate, , - and considerably above that of the Royal . Commission: ■— .

Tons. Jevons's estimate ... 6,089,000,000 "' Actual ... ... 5,025,000,000 Royal Commission estimate 4,320,000,000 t The chief error of the Commasioners lay. ', in assuming that the export of coal would remain stationary at twelve million toWi , c and that th« export for thirty years would \ not exceed 360 millioni tons. As a matter % of fact, British steamers engaged in, foreign trade have recently consumed at that ratey - while tlie total ecsport for thirty years* we*' r - 960 million tons. Of this about 750 millions went to foreign countries. Tht - - home consumption again grows much faster - ' than the population. In 1870 it was ju*.-.-about three tons per head. Last ye»V";f with a much larger population, the con>, r eumption averaged' four and a-half tosa. ( The result of this enquiry is that, while ■** the Eoyal Commission endeavoured to pro* - I phesy smooth things, its hopes have not been realised, wihile thirty years o£ ex* perience show that Professor Jevons h&s v fery solid ground for alarm. The rate <* -„ increase may not Kβ maintained; but doer. . not that mean a relative -decline in trade? The British iron trade, for example, t»7 be beaten by America, and coal may, t l> 3 " econom&sed by the closing down of ft* , , naces, but the remedy would be as aersoa* as the disease. On the other hand, fl»* ~ virgin supplies of other countries are W vast, end are being opened so rapricfcly, tWS '. it seems unlikely that Britain will be \ in the future to use coal from seams onfr r a foot thkk. This consideration may le*», - to a serious writing off from the estimated | available supply. In any event, the rapi<*_' consumption of the vitaJs of the nation*' J which can never be replaced, is a queefcflS , of the gravest moment. It seems isof 06 "; . sible to justify in these circumstanoe3 vast export of coal to foreign, couoatrieC -g to assist rivals in their competition. Oc*** - is England, and to alienate the very heart* blood of England for a poresenfc gai» scarcely what a nation, fully alive to th*f future would allow. It id not imposeMf'*, that Germany and America, whose of coal is growing far faster than e|* Britain's, may, by their greatly reduce tfce British export. If ?* l lk might choose -we- think this is the tion in which the success of foreign petition would be of least parmanent to the British nation. ' t ~4vj