THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

Press, Volume XLVIII, Issue 7756, 9 January 1891, Page 6

THE POLITICAL SITUATION.

WELLINGTON NOTES AND BTJMOBS. [By Telegraph.] [from our correspondent.] WELLINGTON, January 8. Although we are now within a fortnight of the Parliamentary session which is to decide the fate of the Ministry and of the country, it is even yet impossible to offer or to obtain any really trustworthy information as to the progress of events, or as to coming probabilities. Various rumors are freely circulated as to the Ministerial intentions, and I doubt if anything is more definitely or more authoritavely known than this : That the whole question of the course to be taken will be submitted to a meeting of the party immediately before Parliament meets, and that then a decision will be arrived at as to whether Ministers shall resign at once, or bring down a speech from the Throne, and take a vote and question of confidence, which in that case would of course be raised by Mr Ballance. But if the bitter course were preferred, the next point would be who should lead, and here would arise a serious difficulty. lam convinced that it is absolutely hopeless to expect Sir Harry Atkinson to lead, that is physically impossible. Such being the case, Messrs Bryce and Eolleston are deemed the only feasible alternatives. The latter seems to have the largest measure of support, but a section of the party prefer Mr Bryce, and it is hard to say whether an agreement can be arrived at in respect of either suggested leader. Then there is the Speakership conundrum to be solved at the outset, and as I pointed out recently, that involves the loss of a vote to whichever side provides the Speaker. It is said here that Mr Eolle?ton is re luctant to be nominated, and prefers to take bis chance of the leadership* but this may be mere gossip. An agitation has been started on the Opposition side to put forward Major Hamlin, on tbe ground of fitness and experience, and of precedent, because the Chairmen of Committees are often promoted to the Speakership. Sir John Hall and Mr Bryce are said both to be disinclined to accept nomination, and I cannot find that Scobie McKenzie has ever been seriously thought of for the position, because while his ability and acquaintance with Parliamentary practices are readily admitted, it is thought that a longer Parliamentary life ought to have been lived by a Speaker. I suspect his name was mentioned by a certain paper chiefly as au excuse for making some very unfair personal attacks on him. It the Ballance party come in, they are considered to be bound to put forward Major Steward, unless they mean t> make him a Minister, which is said not to be contem plated, and if they have a majority they will be able to demonstrate the fact by electing their own Speaker. The names of Messrs Seddou and Fisher have been mentioned in this connection, but chiefly in jest. Both men are essentially combatants, and nobody can imagine either of them retiring to the seclusion of the Speaker's chair. A story is circulated that Ministers intend reconstructing the Ministry before the House meets, in order to see if by such a process hey could mollify the members who decline to support " the Ministry as at present constituted." Assiduous efforts are being made to whip up an agitation against Mr Bichardson on the score of his land administration, and some members go so far as to say that the only present Minister they would tolerate in a new Ministry selected from tne same side of the House is Capt. Bussell. The plain fact is that all is chaos as yet, and the evolving of order haa not even begun. There is undoubtedly an impression prevalent that Ministers and their side are less con fident now than they were a week ago, and that the Opposition are proportionately more sanguine. I have tried hard to trace this idea to its source and to test its value, but in vain. I cannot find that any one of the thirty-five members whose votes were exhibited on the card as "safe," have intimated their secession, nor have I discovered any reason to doubt the adhesion of at least two of the doubtfuls. Giving these two doubtfuls to the Ministerial party, their numbers would be 37 to 36, even giving the Opposition all the other doubtfuls, but Mr Shepherd Allen cannot be here at the opening of Parliament, so that brings the figures to a tie, and I confess I am not at all clear as to the grounds on which Mr Duthie has been counted as a Ministerialist. He follows Mr Bryce very closely, but, judging from the usual tenor of his remarks,' I should not be surprised to find him voting against Ministers in the first division, though he would almost certainly vote against Mr Ballance directly afterwards if the latter formed a Government. As to Mr Macdonald, he is safe to vote against the present Ministry whatever he might do for their successors. Mr Smith (New Plymouth) is said to be an almost certain Ministerial vote, and some seem to reckon Mr Parata, but I do not know on what authority.

The Opposition talk very "big" just now, they boast openly that Mr Ballance Las written promises of support from forty one members, and that he will have no difficulty in either securing or retaining office. A prominent member of the party stated openly to day that both Messrs Fish and Hutchison had consented to waive any claims to ofilce they might have in order not to hamper Mr Ballance's hands. If this be so, it makes a clear way for Mr Jno. McKenzie to the Lands portfolio, assuming that Mr Ballance has the forming of an administration. Mr Cadman is still talked of as the Auckland member of a Ballance Cabinet, but the Aucklanders want him to have the Mines Department, which Mr Seddou is understood to deem his own by right. Mr Bees has been mentioned as a possible Auckland Minister, but I hear this is not at all favored by the party. Mr Buckley (iv the Legislative Council) is still spoken of as Mr Ballance's Attorney-General, and Mr W. P. Beeves makes up the quota, according' to the " Man in the street." From what I can gather, any new Ministry that may be constructed is likely to have fa troublesome time. I know at least three members of the Opposition party who fully expect that if Mr Ballance forms a Government they will be compelled tp dissent from his policy and to bring about if possible the formation of another Ministry, either from the same side of the House, or a coalition of members on both sides. Even the policy of this fresh party is being carefully thought out and steadily put into shape. I may be able in a few days to give you a mere inkling of its nature.

I see some willing people in the South are petitioning Government against appointments to the Legislative Council. I fancy they may spare themselves the trouble. Ministers * naturally observe strictest reticence as to their intentions on this head, but I am convinced that the contemplated appointments will be made very shortly. Before Parliament meets you will find Ministers will recommend them, and his Excellency will make them. Such, at least, is my opinion. There is another very important matterwhich hangs in a curious and indefinite position at present. I refer to the Speakership of the Legislative Council. I see it freely asserted that Sir Wm. Fitzherbert is so much better that he will be able to preside as usual during the coming session. This is all nonsense. I regret to say that Sir William will be utterly unable to do any. thing of the sort; in fact, I know he has made up his mind to resign. He came to this decision some time ago, and only delays his resignation at the urgent desire of his (the Opposition) party, who are feverishly eager not to lose his fat bit of patronage, £600 a year and a knighthood. Mr Buckley, as you will remember, is Sir William's son-in law, and may be presumed to possess some influence. At any rate,l hear, on excellent authority, so the matter stands. Naturally enough the present Government would like to have the filling up of the Agent-Generalship, and the Legislative Council Speakership, and

as naturally their opponents would prefer to have the patronage, while equally naturally Sir F. D. Bell and Sir Wm.Fitzherbert prefer holding ofilce as long as they can. Sir M. O'Rorke is said to be the Ministerial favorite for the Speakership of the Legislative Council, but the Opposition seem disposed to fall back on Sir J. Vogel's position as regards the late Speaker of the Lower House, and to oppose his receiving the preferment. It ia said that if Mr Ballance should have the chance of forming a Ministry, hewill not be in a hurry to touch the taxation, but will follow m the wake of his late. leader. Sir Robert Stout, in this matter, and postpone any material change to a more convenient {i.e., distant) period.