The Press. MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1880.

Press, Volume XXXIV, Issue 4757, 1 November 1880, Page 2

The Press. MONDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1880.

We called attention, the other day, to the calculations of Messrs Read and Pell, the Assistant-Commissioners to the Agricultural Commission of Great BritaiD, with reference to the cost at which wheat produced in the far west of Canada and the United States could be landed in Liverpool. They stated, it will be remembered, that the cost of a quarter of American wheat in England would he 49s 9_d, or, allowing for a reduction on the present rate of freights on the American railways, to tho extent of onehalf from the farma to Chicago, and special through. contracts thence, the estimate might be brought down to 4.8. These figures have naturally attracted some considerable attention here. If, in round numbers, a bushel of wheat cannot be conveyed from the farms in the Par West to Liverpool for less than 2s 3d, and if the grain costs 3s 6d delivered at the nearest railway station in America, the natural conclusion is that it is possible for the New Zealand fanner to compete successfully with the American. But, it is well not to come to a too hasty conclusion on this point. Since the report of Messrs Bead and Fell has appeared in tha Times their conclusions have been doubted and their figures called into question. Mr. Williamson (M.P. for St. Andrew's district), who claims that he has had ampler means than the Agricultural Commissioners for arriving at a sound estimate on the point, writes to the Times interposing a few words of caution as to the conclusions of Messrs Bead and Pell. He has, he says, gone over last year much .of the same ground as that visited by the Assistant Commissioners, and has had his attention specially directed to the same subject as far as wheat-growing is concerned. He thinks that they have founded their computations of the cost of American wheat laid down in Liverpool on an altogether erroneous basis. They have assumed an average yield of only 12 bushels per acre. That, he says, ought only to apply to the old and partly exhausted Wheat-producing States. But "the development of the Great Red Biver Valley, Upper Minnesota, Dakota, and Manitoba in Canada, is only in its initial stage. The influence of their production in improving the average yield in America has not yet begun to be felt." He then goes on to point out that the railway connecting the Red Biver valley with Chicago was only opened in November, 1878. That line runs for a distance of about 500 miles north-west of St. Paul's in Minnesota to Winnipeg, and, with its projected branches, will thoroughly open up the Red River valley. Then there is the Northern Pacific Railway and the Canadian line, which will at an early date connect Manitoba with the Canadian Lake system. In these vast regions, he says, it will only be reasonable to assume 20 bushels as the probable average yield for many years to come. But one of the fallacies of the Commissioners' calculations "of the cost laid down in England consists in their having taken the inland charges from these remote districts, while they have based the cost of production on the low average yield of States from which the transit charges to large consuming or shipping points are very much less." Mr. Williamson then .proceeds to give his estimate as follows:—" The cost of ploughing, seeding, reaping, and delivering wheat in the new regions enumerated may be taken (after the first year) at Bdol. per acre. Now an average yield of 18 bushels at 50c. per bushel will! give 9doL to the farmer. Mr. Dalrymple, the great farmer at Fargo, informed mc that his average cost of production hitherto had been 34c. per bushel. That, however, will be altogether an unsafe estimate to assume, j But, taking 50c. and an average yield: of 18 bushels, we haTe the following as the calculation of the cost of spring wheat laid down in Liverpool—B bushels (1 quarter), at 50c, 16s 8d; through freight, Bed Biver Valley to Liverpool, 13s—29s 8d; Liverpool charges (brokerage, insurance, and loss in weight), 2s lOd per quarter of 48011)—328 6d." Mr. Williamson contends that the charge of 13s per quarter from the Bed Biver Valley to Liverpool is sufficiently ample. Indeed, he is of opinion that 13s is rather an overestimate for tie future than an under-estimate. He further adds that he had an advantage over the Commissioner- in having travelled over tha wheat fields of California, Oregon and Washington Territory, which they did not. Had they done so, they would have found in Eastern Oregon and Washington Territory a region of surprising fertility and of very great extent. Mr. "rTOliamson refers more particularly to the Walla Walla country, extending from the Sierra Nevada line eastward to the Blue Mountains and to the borders

of Montana. From thts district, he says, j remote though it be, Europe obtained last j season some 50,000 tons of wheat and flour. "The climate is delightful; grapes and peaches ripen freely in the open air and the average yield of wheat for the crop of 1879 was 30 bushels per acre." We have reproduced at some length the facts and deductions contained in the letter before us. The great importance of the subject matter must be our excuse, as in a correct conclusion the farmers of this colony are deeply interested. If large quantities of wheat can be imported from America at anything like the price named by Mr. Williamson, then it is quite evident that a revolution must take place in our mode of agriculture in this colony. What that change should be it is scarcely ' within our province to suggest. We leave that to those practically acquainted with such qnestions. But we certaiuly deem it our duty to place the facts given in Mr. Williamson's letter clearly and prominently before our farming readers. If they are to encounter the kind of competition which a consideration of the above facts suggests, it is well that they should not be taken unawares. The report of the Assistant Commissioners is calculated to produce the impression that the scare about the American competition is to a great extent unfounded. Mr. Williamson is of a different opinion. Addressing the English agriculturists he says:—"These are the figures which our landowners and farmers ought to face in making their bargains. It wonld be supreme folly in calculating the chances for the future, to take all + he favourable contingencies and to count the American probabilities at the very worst for their competitors. Even if It can be shown that my calculations are capable of modification, I am quite sure that it would be extremely unwise to calculate that American wheat laid down in Liverpool may be assumed as costing anything like 48s 9d or even 47s 9d per quarter." The above warning is equally applicable to our New Zealand farmers, and it is because we wish them to look their position boldly in the face that we have devoted so much space to this important question.