THE TASK OF THE UNIONIST.

Bush Advocate, Volume XXII, Issue 14, 18 January 1910, Page 7

THE TASK OF THE UNIONIST.

TWO HUNDKED SEATS MUST BE WON.

The result of the general election of 1906, expressed in the most concise form' possible was (says the Pall Mall Gazette) to convert a Unionist ma-jo-ritv of 74 on the eve of dissolution into a Unionist minority of 356, in consequence of the net gain of 215 Unionist seats by Liberals, Laborites, or Nationalists. Some months ago the Standard made an examination of the Liberal majorities in all the constituencies that the Liberals held, with the following interesting results:

The Standard went on to say: "The Unionists are stronger by 9 than they were at the beginning of 1906; the Liberals are 34 fewer, having lost 10 seats at byelections and 24 LiberalLabor members having definitely joined the ranks of Labor. Before the general election of 1906 the Unionist majority was 74, so that the task that confronted the Radicals then was light compared with that which the Unionists are now set; for we have to win 168 seats, to make 'honors easy'—that is to say, roughly, 200 seats to get a working majority. But an examination of the foregoing analysis and the following tables will show that the task is by no means so formidable as the mere mention of 'winning 200 seats' implies. It is fairly obvious that we shall win all the seats now held by majorities under, say, 300, viz., 50. Taking into consideration the enormous turn-over of votes of some of the byelections—for instance, at Peckham and Glasgow—no Liberal seat with less than 3000 majority .can be considered safe from the Unionist attack. There are 345 seats held by less than 3000." The Unionists, it is considered, will have to make the most of their gains in the 465 English seats, for Wales, at the last elction, voted solidly for the Liberals, and Scotland returned 60 Liberals to 12 Unionists. "This is undoubtedly a heavy task," says The Times, "but it certainly is not an impossible one." Some Unionist papers, in taking a hopeful view of the party's prospects, lay stress on the discrepancy between the Liberals' majority in members at the last election and their majority of voters. The Standard gave the following analysis of the voting: Unionists, 2,194,000, or 44 per cent. returned—l4l members. Liberals, 2,377,000, or 47 per cent. returned—342 members. Labor, 443,000, or 9 per cent, returned 44 members. The possible issue of the present contest was thus put by the Observer quite recently:—"lf 43 per cent, of the people, even under the unparalleled disadvantages of the last General Election, voted against the Radi-cal-Socialist Coalition, is it in the least likely that less than 50 per cent, of the country will vote against them now ? Obviously it is not likely. Since the pendulum began to swing again two years ago, the clear majority of all the votes registered at byelections has been given for Tariff Reform and Imperial Union against this Government and its purposes. We believe with Mr Chamberlain that the Unionist Party can sweep the country if it knows what to do and does it thoroughly. The question as to which party will obtain an absolute and efficient majority will turn upon the decision in fifty or sixty seats. These key-constituencies are listed. All the conditions prevailing in them are known." CLOSING UP THE RANKS. UNIONISTS AND TARIFF REFORM. The London correspondent of the Sydney Daily Telegraph recently wrote the following review of 'the situation : "As the Liberals command the general support of the Nationalists because of Home Rule, and the support of the Labor men because of their progressive legislation, the task before the Unionists is on figures a tremendous one. But as a large share of the Unionist rout at the 1906 elections was attributable to the split in the party on the issue of Tariff Reform and free trade, the outlook is not so dark as it at first sight appears. Since 1906 the Tariff Reformers have secured the ascendancy in the Unionist party, and the result is that the disastrous lack of discipline which smashed their cause at the last elections has now been verv considerably corrected. Not that the party is now solid for protection. It still contaius many who profess free trade. But even the most ardent of these, like the Cecils, are showing signs of compromise. Thev have gone so far as to announce their preference for Tariff Reform before, the 'Socialism' embodied in the Budget. "Meanwhile every resource of political ingenuity is being taxed to solidifv the Unionist party. The constituencies are being re-shuffled. Manv Unionist constituencies, such as those in the great manufacturing centres of the North, have thwarted everv effort at conversion to Tariff Reform, and to these, as far as possible, the partv engineers are allocating those recalcitrants in Parliament who likewise luive remained true to the principles of Bright and Cobden, and in doing so have got out of touch with their*" old electors. The oood temper, the astuteness, and the tact of the leaders of the party are

extraordinary. Mr Balfour, in his balance between tbo two factions of his followers, is a monument of prudence. To-day lie delights the protectionists by' a careful declaration for Tariff iveform, to-morrow he infers just enough doubt of the movement to satisfy his rebel free traders. The central organisation is likewise displaying wonderful powers as a peacemaker. But in the rank and file the fight between the two sides is one of the utmost bitterness. The Tariff Reformers, easily in the ascendant, are ruthlessly tracking down every opponent, and not even the parliamentary reputation of Lord Robert Cecil," nor the traditions of his name, were sufficient to prevent him being driven out of his East Marylebone constituency. No one can doubt that the Unionist party, for all practical legislative purposes, is today solid for protection, or that it goes to the country more powerful and united than it'did in 1906."

Seats Majorities under 50 Between 50 and 100 ... 10 ... 7 100 .. 200 ... 15 „ 200 ,, 300 ... ... 18 '„ 300 ., 400 ... ... 22 ,, 400 ,, 500 ... ... 18 ■„ 500 ,, 600 ... ... 14 ,, 600 ,, 700 ... ... 19 700 „ 800 ... ... IX ;, 800 „ 900 ... ... 8 ;, 9oo „ 1000 ... ... 7 ,, 1000 ,, 1500 ... 63 ,, 1500 „ 2000 ... ... 52 ,, 2000 ., 3000 ... ... 66 „ 3000 ,, 4000 ... ... 35 ,, 4000 „ 5000 ... ... 21 Over 5000 ... 19 Unopposed seats ... 10