AGRICULTURAL COLUMN

Bush Advocate, Volume XI, Issue 869, 9 December 1893, Page 5

AGRICULTURAL COLUMN

_ ■ > • ____ „ , j ~» °. The Wheat Yield of the World. a. o j j " Beerbohm's Evening Corn Trado list" has for _ years been pessimistic, prophesying f I deficiencies in stocks and advances in I I prices which have not occurred. Oar eon- »{ temporary claims " that after allowing for the most optimistic estimates of the variona ie crops, we find that the world's wheat yield d promises this year to be about 18,000,000 quar- (. ters less than last year." With so serions a possible shringage, " Beerbolm (Ist September) writes consolingly for farmers and importers as follows : — " Under these circumstances we can only reiterate the opinion that it is only a question of ***. short time before this altered state of Bupply and demand I must exert its influence on prices." EveryII body interested in wheat-growing can heartily , wish that this prognostication will be justified. : But unfortunately .the question is not one Y to be settled by interest and desire, and when T we turn to "George Dornbusch 'a Ploatl ing Cargoes Evening List" we meet with a different forecast. "DornbuschVestimatefor 1893 is indeed nearly 16,000,000 quarters less than the actual yield of 1892, but the armaal : requirements are also set forth. Exclndio^ ' Australasia, the Cape and Argentina, the yield for 1893 is estimated by onr contemporary at * 236,400,000 quarters, against an actual yield of ■2*52,264,000 quarters for 1892, and one of 249,619,000 quarters for 1891. Adding these three quantities together we have a total of 738,313,000 quarters. But the annual consumption being 239,000,000 quarters, the quantity •required for three years is 717,000,000 quarters, so that the surpluses ot IS9I and 1892, less the slight deficit of 1893, amount to 21,313,000 quarters. These figures are borne out by the condition of stocks. For example, although the British harvest is short of British requirements by 22,000,000 quarters, yet the supplies on hand nre so large that, according to " Dornbusch," an importation of 18,000,000 quarters will be ample. Thetableß given by "Dornbusch" are of considerable value for purpoiea of reference, and we therefore reproduce them aa follows : — ESTIMATED EUBO*PEA>7 CROP. IK>3, COHTARED WITH TWO PREVIOUS TEAKS. (Estimated Actual Yield. . Yield, 1893. 1592. 18JII. I Ors. Grs. «». France 3.1,VXi,(100 37,370,000 2G,70i,000 Ilussia and Bilsnd 34,000,0T0 32.155.000 21,932,W*i> ' Auatria-Hun'aiy ... 21,30a0<>0 23,014,000 2*J,*V-O,Conr Danube and Turkey 1.->,scy*,ooo 1j.23.9,000 u,4KfiOH Italy 14,500,000 M,o:)0,000 17,2aS0W> Germany l*.*,r,ofl.OO*) 14,350,000 10,7'W.g00 Spain ond Portugal 10,000.0*001 10,150,000 10,570,000 British Isle's H.SOn.OOOj 5,34|>,000 9,342,00>l Belgium & Holland '.',500,000 .1,290.000 2,530,000 Other countries ... *-'„->O(*,C*oo| 3.0*10,000 3.000,003 Total isiiooo.ooolini 040,000 i.i9st7.oan. India :U;.t00,(m}25,HX,000 3-1,330,r0a l^G (00,000 157770,000 173177.000 U.S. America ... 50,000,000! 04,491,000 78,47a^0r> (•>.*s64oO,o6o,*2n*22C4,oOOji!4<>f*;ir>,Or'» EUUOI'EAN IMrOUTINO COUNTRIES. CEREAL YEAR lS>3-94.___ [" * Food, Secdi. * | Estimated aud ■ . — i Yield. Mauufac- Deficient****. 1 lures. «ra. to. Qra. TJ.K 6,500,000 28,.'.Q*i,000 aa.QOO.fiC*-* 1 "France ... 33,500,000 42,000,000 8,500,0i'0 liolKium and Holland ... .l.niVt.nOO 0,500,000 *V.Oo,«Of' Germany ... 12,50(1,010 14,000,000 1.n00.00n Italy 14,500,. OO 13,000,000 D,uoo,l»*.*> * Spainand Por-tujj-al ... 10,00.->,OOO 11,000,000 1,000,000 Switzerland and others... 2,500,000 5,000,000 2,500.000 Tot.ll ... 82,500,000 125,000,000 42.500.00P "EXrOETEVG COT7XTIUE3 mOBABLE SHIPMENTS TO WESTERN - ETJROPE-CEEB.VL YEAIt 1593-M. Quarters. "Rus-Ha... 11,000.0M> Danube and Turkey 5,000,00*» Awlm-Hungary 1,000,00" India, Vcrsia and Asia -Jliuor ... B.UICCW tT.S.A. and ttm-id* 14,000,00> Australasia a nd South America. . . 4,ooo,***W Egypt, N. Africa, etc I,ooo.oo**> Total 42,0 , 0.000 A third authority is the Hungarian Minister '. of Agriculture, who always gives au extraor- ' diuary amount of attention to the eompilattou I of wheat statistics. His estimate for tne year 1893 is 255 million quarters, against 2GS million quarters last year, au increase of 19 million quarters thus being reckoned on. Yet the Minister concludes, like "Dornbusch," that the requirements of the importing countries will be just met by the surplus available in export- \ ing countries. Recapitulating, we find that ' ' oar three authorities Vary ds follows:^ * • • ' ■* ' Quarter***. Beerbohm, decrease as comparedwith 1592 lS,oflO,i***«> Dornbusch, do. do 16,000,000 Hungarian Miuis:er of Agriculture, increase 10.000.WS The widest difference is 37,000,000 quarters, which quantity is large enough to suggest tha desirability of suspending a final judgment upon tbe yield of 1893. With regard to the British wheat crop, "Beerbohm" summarises the agricultural returns, published at the close of August, in the following terras : — " The agricultural returns of Great Britain have been publiihed this week, and they show the further important decrease of 14-5 per cont. compared with last year -, the area is, ia fact, returned as only 1,897,488 acres, which with 75,000 acres in Ireland makes the total for the "United Kingdom 1,972,000 aores. rhe yield per acre is variously estimated at 25 to 28 bushels, and although there is no doubt of the existence of very short yields, especially in Essex, Kent and aome of the Midland Counties, we are inclined to adopt the larger estimate, which would givs a total crop of 6,900,000qi3., ao that after deducting seed requirements, etc., there will be less than G.OOO.OOOqrr. left for consumption ; and as ttell.K. has been consuming wheat and flour (apart from seed) at the rate of 25,500,000qr5. per annum during the past three years, it is evident that not leas than that quantity will be required in tha season of ISP3- 1. This means that, allowmst ono and a half million quarters to be drawn from stocks, which are at present about 3,000,000qra, the U.K. will have to import at leasttwenty-one million quartera in the forthcoming season. The U.K.'s production and imports have shown tha following changes sines 1863:— r b *£ >2 i-i •"■'S'S — Acrea-je. _-.S g Net Si-aS *> Z E Import?. 2jS£ *-" •- 5 cc t< <Jrs. Qi», 3. d. I lSal-t O.fiOS.OOO 15.750,C00 6,9i10,W0 41 O I JWi-4 ' 3.<:70,1<K>! '.I.XW.HOO 1 ll,a-*5,000 fil J--ISB.S-4 ... 2,71*3,000' 7,823,000 15,775,000 .*VS 4 18!)3-t ... 1.»72.(i00' 1i,000.00tf < 22,160,000) 27 0_ " " Tlicse ave tho imports of the past season. : The conclusion aa to the quantity which it will be necessary to import differs from that of "Dornbusch," to which reference has already been made. The latoßt reports from America favor the view that tho yield will be larger than was estimated. The Californiau contribution, for instance, is turning out much better than was - expected, and a final estimate of 1,250,000 tons was considered probable. This means a larga increase upon the yield of 1892, and is doubtless the explanation of the activity in the freight market at San Francisco. *•— —**■■ •*■■*****•*****************'