HITLER'S GAMBLE

Auckland Star, Volume LXXIII, Issue 198, 22 August 1942, Page 7

HITLER'S GAMBLE

1942 VICTORY .BID

SWING WEST IN AUTUMN

Nazi leaders from Hitler down are convinced that this summer will bring the great military crisis of the war. To meet it, they have massed 210 of Germany's 300 army divisions for an attempt to crush Russia and have sent from 180 to 300 submarines out to slash at Allied shipping on the Atlantic.

The most competent observers with whom I had contact before leaving Germany agreed that a showdown is near and that the tide of war will definitely turn against Germany unless the all-out campaigns of the next few months succeed. said Joseph W. Grigg, one v of tne American newspapermen released from internment in Berlin in June.

German manpower already is strained beyond the danger point, with 12.000,000 men absorbed in the lighting services—7,600,000 in the army, 1,500,000 in the air force and navy, and 3,000,000 in auxiliary services, including the Labour Corps. Though it is impossible to estimate exact numbers, Germany has suffered extremely high casualties. There were between 12,000 and 20,000 casualties daily at the height of the battles in Russia, reliable sources have admitted, and the total killed up to midwinter was anything between 250,000 and 750,000. Plane Output Slipping There is no shortage of guns or munitions, but German warplane production is believed to be slipping. Estimates of the monthly output vary from 1100 to 2500 planes. The air force probably has 35,000 planes, but many of them no longer are a match lor the newest types developed by the Allies.

About 18 submarines are commissioned monthly, with 25 the absouitet maximum which German shipyards theoretically are capable of launching. Competent foreign military observers in Berlin believe that if Kussia can withstand this summer's onslaught and retain enough strength to hit back, the Germans will reach one end of their rope. The German General Staff admits £ 1 L German Army cannot grab the Caucasus and seize control of the Mediterranean to bring oil and Ukranian wheat to hungry Europe a long drawn-out war cannot be fought. Could Hitler smash Russia bv mid-summer, the best military opinion in Berlin is that he would be able to swing his military machine westward again to attempt invasion of Britain in the autumn. 20 Divisions in France Of Germany's estimated 300 army divisions, from 35 to 42 divisions are required to garrison occupied territories I here are about 20 in France part of them second-line and average regiments, five in Norway, 12 in Belgium and Holland, two in Denmark. and three in Yugoslavia. Vast quantities of arms captured in sweeping over Europe have spared the Germans any shortage in guns and munitions. The chief shortages are foodstuffs, especially fats, and some metals needed for hardening steels in the manufacture of aeroplane motors.

Aeroplane production is a constant source of worry. The Nazis evidently hoped to win the war with their original types of planes, and the necessity of introducing a number of new bomber and lighter types in recent months to match Allied planes has slowed down production considerably.