ATLANTIC WAR

Auckland Star, Volume LXXII, Issue 173, 24 July 1941, Page 11

ATLANTIC WAR

HITLER WON'T WIN

AMERICA'S RESOLVE

VICTORY FOR DEMOCRACY

(By HARRY HOPKINS)

[Written by President Roosevelt's right-hand man for the •American Magazine." tvith a circulation of 2.300.000 In the United States I

Hitler won't win this war. There are four essential facts against him. Me has not got real sea power. He is slowly losing his air superiority. He cannot equal the economic resources which ,the British and ourselves are bringing to bear against him. Finally, it is contrary to every American interest, economic, political and moral, that he shall be allowed to consolidate his illgotten gains.

To-day the British have achieved superiority over the Germans in fighters, certainly in quality, and probably also in quantity. This superiority reduces the value of the temporary German superiority in bombers. These they cannot use with any great accuracy in the areas where the British have adequately prepared and protected airfields. The British can protect their factories and other vital areas effectively from day bombing. Growing Air Strength To hear defeatists write and talk you would think that no fighting planes were available anywhere to withstand the onslaughts of Hitler's air forces. This is directly contrary to the facts. It is perfectly true that Germany has had from the beginning and still has a great superiority in bomber strength, so much so that she has probably been able to drop five tons of bombs over England for each ton dropped over Germany.

This is changing. Week by week the British are catching up and with our help another year will find the democracies on fairly equal terms with Germany. After that will come inevitable superiority.

Then Hitler will not be able to move his factories far enough to the east to escape the giant bombers now being built in the great air factories in America. They will search out every oil refinery, every synthetic plant, every great machine, every aircraft factory, and every coke oven, and they will destroy them. And meanwhile the British night fighter is already finding its way on to the tail of the German bombers.

Hitler has made the great mistake of under-rating sea-power and of over-estimating initial air power. He thought the aeroplane, by destroying British ports and British factories and by "spotting" surface vessels for his submarines, could conquer. This might have been true if the British had not had sufficient fighter power last year to win the Battle for Britain. It may become true again if we let them lose vital supplies in the Battle for the Atlantic.

Up to the present the British have used their air power to protect the brain and nerve centre of their fleet throughout the world. The British Fleet has prevented invasion; it has escorted successfully a large proportion of all the supplies dispatched to Britain; it has stopped Hitler exploiting the areas he has conquered; and it has stopped essential supplies moving to him. Hitler's Sea Successes But the British Navy is patrolling and fighting on many fronts and in many seas^ —it must attack in the Mediterranean, convoy troops and supplies to the Middle East, seek out raiders, above all guard the dangerous waters between America and England. And at this point lies the greatest danger to Britain, because supplies of food and munitions must be delivered or the democracies will fall.

In the last analysis, therefore, those who maintain that Britain will lost must base their final judgment on their belief in the ability of Hitler to crack the British lifeline between the United States and England. Hitler right now is going all out to break this line, and it must be admitted that week by week and month by month he has gained headway towards his fundamental objective. The number of tons reaching England each month is diminishing. To be sure, England cannot be starved out this year, no matter what the aeroplane and submarine may do. But it is surely hiding your head in the sand not to realise that Hitler's successes in damaging and sinking ships on their way to Britain can, if they continue, only result in a disastrous conclusion. W r e must look at this lifeline, not with wishful thinking, but with the cold analysis of ruthless modern warfare. No amount of sentimental goodwill prevents swooping Fokkers and lurking submarines from striking their deadly blows. Defeatists maintain that by submarine, raider and aircraft the Germans can sink more ships than the democracies can build. This I deny, in spite of the fact that they are doing so to-day. The next eight months are the crucial months in the protection of the lifeline of the United States and Britain. We are now engaged on a shipbuilding programme to build more than 4,000,000 tons of ships a year, and our figures can be substantially increased. This, added to the British capacity, means that Ger-

many would have to sink at least an average of 500.000 tons of shipping a month in order to prevent an increase in the total number of ships arriving in England each month.

Overwhelming Resources The Battle of the Atlantic, and holding open Britain's lifeline, is therefore more than the mere carriage of our equipment and food to British ports. It means that the democratic peoples throughout the world are beginning to recover the initiative.

Its next essential step is mobilising for victory the vast resources which the democracies can command. British and American steel capacity is about 110.000.000 tons a year. The whole of German-controlled Europe cannot produce more than 42.000.000 tons a year. The efficiency of our plants is higher than that of the Germans. N'ickel steel is the easiest armament steel to make and use. We command 11.000 tons of nickel a year; the Germans 2500 tons. For other essential steels chrome must be used. Germany may now command up to 100.000 tons a* year; we command 600.000 or 700.000 tons a year.

Other materials essential for highquality weapons of war are copper and tin. Unless Germany gets tin by illicit means through leaks in the blockade that we can help Britain to plug up, she should not be able to get more than 1000 tons a year. We can command about 200.000 tons. The Allies and the United States together consume in three weeks of their present production programmes as much copper as Germany is now able to obtain in one year. Only in aluminium production capacity does Germany and GermanEurope equal the capacity of the Allies and the United States. But Germany has to use aluminium as a substitute for other metals that we can command in abundance. Germany also needs desperately rubber and petroleum products. Germany now has no fresh supplies of rubber except those that run through the blockade; we can command more than 500.000 tons. They use substitute rubber, its production makes heavy demands upon the German chemical industry and is not immune from accident and other interferences.

Nothing can conceal Germany's concern about petroleum products. We can command up to 200,000,000 tons a year. At the best Germany can get control of not more than 15,000,000 tons a year, including her synthetic output. The Real Objective I have never liked the slogan of "Aid to Britain." It is not because I dislike the British, but because the real purpose of democracy's fight is to crush Nazi power and philosophy everywhere. The United States is just as much interested in aiding Norway. Poland, Greece, Yugoslavia and all the other prostrate democracies in Europe as it is to aid the British. It just so happens that Britain and the Commonwealth of Nations that make up the British Empire with their men and blood and ships are playing the major part in beating back the Nazis from the rest of the democratic world. Just as surely as the sun rises in the East, should Hitler win the war the time would not be far distant when the people of America would not be permitted to worship God in the manner their consciences dictate. They would trade in the way Hitler wants them to trade, and prejudices of race, religion and creed would find expression in America in the rise of a Nazi-minded people. America's All-Out Aid The truth is that the mechanised legions of Hitler, his concentration camps, and his financial hocus-pocus offer to the great unprivileged people of the world, mean nothing but poverty and oppression. Victory for the democracies, however, opens for these same people opportunities for a way of life they have never enjoyed before. [ When the democratic victory is won, then the great wealth of the . world must be shared with all the ' people. And just as this victory J must not result in the oppression of i the German people themselves, by , the same token it must result in a vast expansion of the good things of • life for the masses of the people, [ who for years have been disinherited.

Like many other nations in the world, we cannot afford to wait until one after another of our friends falls under the fierce attack of a powerful enemy. The United States has determined upon a policy of all-out aid to the democracies. That aid must be given without stint and at once. Hitler is strong, but the democracies are stronger. Hitler will not win.