RUSSIAN CAMPAIGN, AFTER A MONTH

Auckland Star, Volume LXXII, Issue 170, 21 July 1941, Page 6

RUSSIAN CAMPAIGN, AFTER A MONTH

or perhaps impossible, as it is to gain from the Russian and German communiques precise information as to the state of the ■war, it is not impossible to draw some conclusions after a month of lighting. First of all, however, it is necessary first to eliminate from our thinking ideas based on exaggerated hopes, or on equally exaggerated tears. There are people so impressed by years of Soviet propaganda Hiut they expected the Germans to be speedily hurled back. There are others, more numerous, so impressed by the success of the German blitzkrieg of last year that they expected the German Army to cut through the Russian as a knife through cheese. Some even professed tn expect that the swastika would by now be flying over the Kremlin. It is improbable that either the German or the Russian leaders expected decisive results in the first month. The Germans, certainly, would not embark on such a campaign without thorough knowledge of the difficulties facing them, difficulties inherent in the distances of Russia and its poor communications, which would have posed many a problem even if there had been no resistance. In the first fortnight, having Kaincd some advantage from surprise, they pushed the Russians out of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Their progress was steady, but resistance was sufficiently strong to prevent the advance from gaining a shattering momentum. They did not break through. Apparently—though on this point the reports are vague—some of their panzer columns penetrated the defences, but, if so, they were unable to consolidate the gains. In the third week there was a relative lull, during which both sides reorganised, and the Germans prepared concentrated attacks. These were launched a week ago, and made progress principally in two direc--1 ions, towards Leningrad and towards Kiev. How much progress they made it is impossible to determine from the conflicting reports, one explanation of which is that the Germans refer to the position of their panzer units, while the Russians dwell on the stubborn fighting that is going on far behind those units. The fact that the Russian forces are still stubbornly resisting, and so, presumably, preventing or delaying the consolidation of the panzers' gains, strongly suggests that the defenders, if they have not found the answer to German tactics that previously have been so successful, are on the way to finding it. Meanwhile the most satisfactory feature of the campaign is its undoubtedly high cost to the Germans. The cost in manpower may not or not yet, be serious for them. After all, they had a million and a half men on the eastern frontier before the war started—idle troops, which are now employed. But the Germans have not won their previous campaigns by overwhelming numbers. They have won by the striking power and excellent co-ordination of their planes and tanks It is unfortunately not possible to determine the state of the "air war" in Russia after one month's fighting. The Russians have admitted heavy losses, and have claimed that the Germans' losses are heavier. Similarly we do not know how successful the Germans have been in bringing up replacements of tanks and material lost, in the land fighting It can scarcely be doubted that they will be able for a long time to supply the replacements, if the transport and communication difficulties can be overcome. These difficulties are increasing, and—perhaps most important of all—the difficulties of fuel supply are growing greater In this connection the most significant news is of the repeated heavy bombing by the Russians of the Rumanian oilfields. This bombing is reported to have been successful to the point of causing Rumania heavily to reduce deliveries to Turkey, though it may not yet have directly affected the German Army. But it affords ground for hoping that, if the Russian resistance continues, even though the Germans make considerable gains before another month has passed the invaders' difficulties will sharply increase. Their war machines won't run fast without heavy, continuous and assured supplies of oil. Probable as it is that the present difficulties were not completely unforeseen by the Germans, and that in the next few weeks they will make prodigious efforts to smash the resistance, it is certain that a situation in which their forces are fully and expensively engaged along a front of about 1800 miles on the east, while their ports and industrial centres are receiving an unparalleled battering from the Royal Air Force in the west, is one which imposes a terrific strain upon even a solid and hardened people. Germany will be a much weaker nation by the time the winter comes.