"CAGEY" STALIN

Auckland Star, Volume LXXII, Issue 123, 27 May 1941, Page 5

"CAGEY" STALIN

THE PERSIAN LAMB more EASY LOOT! IS RUSSIA DEBATING? (By WALTER DURANTY)

TOKYO, April 21. You can never forget that Ger-j Wany..is always fighting the war on[ a double front—action by battle and: a' war of nerves. That from the| outset has been the secret of Nazil success, a combination of physical, pressure and psychological effects. ,J°-day, therefore, it is especially ail er f stl . n S to see how the Germans . trymg to interpret the recent soviet-Japanese treaty of friendship n.a sense favourable to them. It is! claimed that the treaty may! "courage Japan to a violent southvii ex Pansion which would involve a conflict with the Anglo-| American Pacific forces, and now ci er . e , ls the new suggestion that the soviet Union may take similar action in Persia. irv, ?*h of these reports subtly imply that Japan and Soviet Russiaj Axis tools, which I do not, relieve to be the case, despite the Japanese-German alliance and the. r?™er Soviet agreements with Gerinany j think Japan and Russia "aye their own fish to fry and will not be cajoled or stampeded into n ln jt Germany's game. v un the other hand, there seems to £e spmething shady in the State of £?rsia. Whether that tough realist, 2. Riza, is losing his grip or Whether the effects of the death of £emal Ataturk—which left Turkey in some ways like a rudderless cssel—are the true cause of the 5[i sei }t Persian uncertainty it is rrm to estimate, but the fact nw5 s T? lear that the former solid irm„ Persian combination no exists and that, if the Rusdid contemplate action in rsia > this might be a favour«uie moment.

Both Opportunists j Coming back to Japan, one thus' gets a further parallel between thej two countries which helps to explain the ease and speed of the Soviet-' Japanese neutrality agreement. Neither of them is working for Germany, but for themselves, and both; realise there are great possibilities! in the offing of which each might take advantage if .they establish a! mutual understanding. I

I do not think that Soviet Russia] .really contemplates a drive into Persia, nor do I think Japan will try J to crack Singapore, with all that such a move might involve. But it lis not beyond the bounds of possibility that the Japanese might feel the Indo-China-Thailand situation could so develop as to require some action by them, and similarly the] Russians might remember that North; Persia had once been a Russian! j"sphere of influence," as they calledj lit in those days. ;

! Strangely enough, there is a lot more continuity in Russian policy' han the 100 per cent Marxists might! have you think. It was not for nothing that one of those recent 100 000-ruble awards, which are the Russian equivalent to British "birthday honours," was given to the citizen who wrote the play "Peter the Great." (This play, based on Tolstoy's historical novel of the same name, depicts in a favourable light the character of Peter I. (1672-1725), who reorganised the Russian Government on Western models, frequently by violent methods, and who acquired territory, in wars with [Turkey, Sweden and Persia.)

The Russians are playing cagey ,and keeping a careful eye on two 'points—the history of Napoleon (whose army was forced to retreat from Moscow in 1812) and the 100 or so German divisions now stationed between the Black Sea and the! Baltic.

I Giving Each a Free Hand. Russia needs and desires peace above everything, for internal no less than extraneous reasons, but— and do not overlook this "but"—the Russians since the war began have quietly and easily collected a great deal of former Czarist territory. In Finland someone made a mistake and the collection was neither so quiet nor easy as elsewhere, but no one doubts who to-day controls the approach to Czar Peter's "westward window."

If Joseph Stalin should feel sure Ithat the Persian peach was there and waiting to be plucked—well, it might ilook like a useful gesture after Germany's armed seizure of the southeast Balkans and the present threat to the Dardanelles. I do not believe 'the Russians will take this step. I think "Uncle Joe" Stalin is far too sagacious to "stick his neck out," but one never knows. And there must be some significance in the British landing of heavy Indian forces at I Basra (Iraq port at the head of the Persian Gulf).

I So some wool may fly from the, tender Persian lamb, and thej Russians can always use wool. Just! as the Japanese fully understand the importance of tin and rubber and are jwell aware that both exist in Indo-!China-Thailand as well as in British I Malaya and the Dutch East Indies.

I So you come back again to what Jlooks like the most sensible interpre-i tation of the Russo-Japanese agreement —that it is precisely what it lis said to be: namely, a treaty ofj (neutrality giving both sides a free; hand for whatever may occur.— "Auckland Star" and N.A.N.A.