NAZI WAR HAMMER

Auckland Star, Volume LXX, Issue 265, 9 November 1939, Page 6

NAZI WAR HAMMER

ITS NEXT BLOW?

HITLER MUST TAKE

OFFENSIVE,

THE TEERIFIfeD NEUTRALS,

(By JOH-V GUNTTHER.)

LONDON", September 30.

''East is East ami West is West," said Kipling, "ami never the twain sliall meet." We do not know what the German military command thinks of this maxim. We must assume, however, that tho correlation of its activities on its Eastern and Western Fronts is a dominant consideration.

Now that Poland has pone, the problem for the Allies is where the Nazi hammer will strike next. ill it be on the Eastern Front, Western Front. or both? . It is taken almost for granted m neutral circles here that the Germans will soon take the offensive. Opinion is about equally divided as to where will come. I asked a famous strategist recently why the Germans, protected by a ring of neutral States as well as t'heir tremenidoiis fortifications oil their short Western Frontier, would not be content to wait and make the Allies take the offensive. He replied: "The (teiman*> might, find it rather dull." His point was that the Germans, to win the war at all must win it quickly. Once the war becomes a military deadlock the Allies are much stronger and can starve (Icriniany out. The (.*erina.n campaign must be swift or it i«5 almost rcrtainl\ doomed to failure. German Technique. Those who think the offensive will be in the west point to the German evacuation of Khincland towns and the reported concentration of heavy forces behind the Dutch frontier near Aachen. I visited the Dutch frontier areas a few months ago and saw the prepaiations the Dutch have made. They have IKirrleaded all roads leading to German}. Heavy concrete walls block every entrance into Germany. These, however, could not possibly resist the full weight of the German war machine. Moreover, the district where the Germans would presumably invade Holland could not be flooded as easily as the regions nearer the sea. The Dutch, even if they opened the dykes to preserve their country would find it insuperably difficult to oppose a German invasion. All the neutrals have watched with considerable foreboding the spectaculai success of the Gennan attack on Poland. Few of them are as well defended even as the Poles, who despite their preparations could not withstand Germany foi more than a couple of weeks. The German campaign in the west if it conies may be based on the idea of a huge flanking movement through Holland and Belgium so as to get around the French Maginot Line. 'ihe French have some fortifications on the FrancoBelgian frontier, but they are not comparable to the Maginot defences. The greatest interest is taken here in the technique of the German attack oil Poland and the question whether it could be applied to the west. _ The technique was to pay scant attention to fortifications, but to destroy enemy air ports, railway junctions, troop concentrations and the means of cemmmucation hebind them.

The Eastern Neutrals. As to the Eastern Front, the first thing that is apparent is that Hungary, like Poland before the war, now has I Russia on its borders as well as Germany. Hungary, like Poland, is caught between two totalitarian giahts now. The Russians have seized the least part of the former Polish-Hungarian frontier, the new common frontier the Hungarians were so happy about a few months ago. Obviously if the Germans and Russians should prepare a joint action in the south-east, neither the Hungarians nor the Rumanians could resist with much hope of success. Rumania is peculiarly vulnerable because the Russians have never given up their claims to the rich grain-growing province of Bessarabia which belonged to Russia once and belongs to Rumania now. The Rumanians think their best protection is indirect, that neither the Germans firstly nor the Turks secondly want tlie Russians to attack Rumania and thus get through to the Black Sea. Russia, it is held, will oppose any German action 011 Rumania and the Germans 011 their side won't attack Rumania if the Russians object. On the other haml, if Russia and Germany come to a joint agreement to divide Rumania ltetween them, as tlicv divided Poland, the chances of Rumania's organic survival are slim indeed. 'i lie position of the neutrals in general is determined by several factors. The first is liow terrified they are of Germany after having seen what the Germans have done to toland. The second is what they might gain in the way of loot if they side with the Germans and tht? third is how well the Allies can protect them if they are attacked by Germany. The fourth is what the Allies can promise them as subsequent reward. Germany's Alternatives. The German campaign in the east depends at the moment 011 similar factors. The whole Balkan position is in the balance. It cannot be said with certainty yet whether Germany will gain or lose more by allowing the neutrals to retain their neutralitv.

To summarise. Germany has two alternatixes. I lie first is a swift blow in the west in the attempt to crush France at least before Christmas. The second is pressure in the east, first diplomatic and perhaps later military, with the idea of replenishing their stores of grain, oil and other raw materials so that the subsequent campaign in the west will have a better chance of success.

Gei man tactics may to a certain extent depend on the seriousness of the Czechoslovak revolt. If this spreads it may make the attack in the east more difficult than in the west.—X.A.N.A.