GERMAN STRENGTH.

Auckland Star, Volume LXX, Issue 154, 3 July 1939, Page 6

GERMAN STRENGTH.

ENOUGH FOR A YEAR'S WAR

AMERICAN ESTIMATES.

(By JOSEPH ALSOP and ROBERT KIXTXER.) 11. WASHINGTON - , May 11. By tremendous effort and stern self-denial, Germany is now thought to have prepared herself for at least a year of offensive warfare. A much nhorter period is named by some authorities. A far longer one is mentioned by others, who count on prompt Herman conquest of such vital raw material sources a* the Rumanian oilfields. But a year seem* to be the best guess. It is based on expert calculation of German raw material production, estimates of German reserves of raw materials and ready-made war supplies, and estimates of Herman war-time consumption of the*e goods. The figures art-, of course, open to question by any other experts. But, controversial as it is. the calculation is well worth recording. The meat of it is contained in the following table*: G.rmany at Peace. Prniitn. Consmntn. Resvs. Tons. Tons. Tons. Motor fuels 3,200.r>nn R.r>oo.ooo 2.000.000 StPPI .... 18.0rni.nnfl 2fi.000.000 - Fats !)4:>.O00 1.600,000 1,000,000 Germany at War. Reserves after a year. yuit or fuels 3.2ri0,n00 n.000,000 200000 • s i<fl ... is.nun.mm is 000 000 ' . I'atH 343,000 1,600,000 345.000 The war-lime consumption fiirure.s are the |'''h! heart of the table*. It may seem incredible that the use of fats and motor fuel i- expected to remain the same in war time, vv-ii!!«• 11 cut in the use of ..tee] is actually predicted. But, with respect to *tee], the German Genera] Staff has plans for th<- | >-triete.«t rationing, turning every bit of domestic Meel production to war-time account. At the name time, reserves of such steel products a- artillery, ammunition and the like are thought to be MiffiYient to supply most j of the Army's needs for a year. And the great steel-belt fortifications along the Rhine. , " are I now complete.

Transport by Rail. Tlio Oerninn people are already on a wartime fat ration, or a cut would be expected hero also. As for nmtor fuel, tlio General Staff is believed to have a programme confining it™ lisp nlmrkst exc-lu-ively to aeroplanes and fight in<r vehicles. Reliance mi trucks for tran>[inrt eatispri thp va-t increases in motor fuel ui-c experienced liy ntlipr nations in war time. Except when speed is strategically important, when tlip Hitler Aiitobahnpii will ho turned to account. Micwt tif ilio Rerman war transport i™ cvpeetPd to he done by rail. Evpii at thp front. quickly ]ai<l narrow-gauge, tracks will carry Herman troops and supplier, as they did in tlir last war.

Leaving on one side the consumption estiu.ntos, there arp other important questions. Steel prod net inn will hp crippled, for example, if thp Swedish ores cease to be available to Rermnny. In a prolonged war. shortages of other foods besides fate may develop. They arp not expected to appear in thp first year because the Oernian.* will avoid the mi.-take of the Inst war, when all the able-bodied men were taken from the fields. But, as a war tines nn, able-bodied men grow scarcer and

Then motor fuel reserves, even with extraordinarily low consumption, will be almost exhausted after a year of firMing. To keep going, the Hermans will be absolutely compelled to have the Rumanian oil wells." If the Rumanian wells are s O t on fire thw time, as they were in lOlii. it will take the Germans nine months or s ,, to bring them into production again. On the other hand, although the Rumanians have already sworn to fire the. wells if necessary, it should be recalled that English troops had to do the work laet time.

finally, there i* copper. German copper product inn is only 30.(100 tons a year, and cannut bo increased b-pyond HO.ono. Peace-time i* 200.000 toiw, and, after the sfnrcd-up supplies of ammunition are used, vv.ir-timo <(']ir-iiiii|>)inn will be astronomical. nf raw [-upper ;ivo known to l>o iiiinK*ii!>(<, rtiul arc lieiiit,' Riipmented. hut eoppor i* mint her vital (n-nlilcm to the Qprnian*. In fiii-f tlio three proitnic mnteriiiU. co]iper, fat* and crude nil. iire likely t<. florid- the' next war, one way or annthor.— (X.A.X.A.)