KEEN MOTORISTS.

Auckland Star, Volume LXX, Issue 43, 21 February 1939, Page 16

KEEN MOTORISTS.

POPULATION GROWTH.

HIGHEST SINCE 1930-31

OFFICIAL REPORT QUOTED.

(By Telegraph.—Own Correspondent.)

WELLINGTON, this tlav.

For the year ended March 31, 1938. the increase of population in the Dominion was 17,2(i8 equal to 1.09 per cent of the population at the beginning of the year, and is the highest increase recorded since 1030-31, states the annual report on population and buildings. Vhe report, according to the "Evening Post," says that the increase for the year is due partly to a higher natural increase and also to the fact that excess of arrivals was recorded, for the first time since 1930-:tl. At March 31, ]!):SB, the total population of New Zealand was 1,004,479, and including the dependencies and mandated territories, 1.079.814.

The lowest increase recorded in recent years was the 10,807 in 1934-35, but from that date successive increases have been recorded, and the total for 1937-38 was much higher than the average of ]5,00(i for the ten-yearly period, continues the report. Exclusive of Maoris, the increase was 14,97~>, or 1 per cent. Subsequent figures quoted under this subtitle are exclusive of Maoris.

Since IS7-->, 74 per cent '-f '.no increase in N'ew Zealand's population (other than Maori) has come from excess of births over deaths, and 2(i per cent from the net migration increase. In the postwar era, 1021-37, the percentage furnished by natural increase has risen only to 70, and such rise, even, is due to the conversion of a moderate inflow through migration to a small outflow in the years 1031-35. The natural increase ratio was formerly unusually high in New Zealand, the annual average, for instance, reaching 29.41 per 1000 of mean population in the quinquennium 1870-80. The 1937 figure of 8.21 per 1000 showed an improvement on the 193(i figure of 7..50. which was the lowest point reached in a long decline.

Natural Increase. Tim relatively high rate of natural increase formerly recorded in New Zealand was derived in part from the exceptionally low death-rate, which was, and still is, the lowest recorded in any country in the world. No further fall in the death-rate to "any substantial degree can be anticipated in the future. It may, indeed, be remarked that the age-constitution of the population is from this aspect now less favourable than in past years. The birth-rate in former years was vastly higher than the present level. For instance, in the five years 1870-80 it averaged 42.21 per 1000 of mean population; in the last five years it has been—l 933, 16.63; 1034, 16.51; 1935, 16.17; 1936, 16.64, and 1937, 17.29. Some improvement was to be expected with the lifting of the depression, and small recoveries were manifest in 1936 and 1937.

There was an apparent natural increase ratio in 1037 of 8.21 per 1000 of mean population, and this may give a fictitious impression' of the position. Due to the inevitable time-lag, a population will for some years continue to advance in total numbers after its reproduction-rate has fallen below a level sufficient to maintain an increasing or a stationary population, assuming a constant fertility and mortality. For some years attention has been' drawn to this aspect, and it was stated that, if this stage had not already been reached in New Zealand, it was close at hand if the trend continued.

Improvement in 1937. The improvement in the birthrate for the year 1937 affords justification for a rather more optimistic view, though rather as a portent of further iiient than as a measure of accomplished gains. For 1937 the gross reproduction rate wae 1.074 and the net rate 0.996. The degree of improvement is only sufficient to maintain, roughly speaking, a stationary population; a definite and marked continuation of this improvement is necessary before the natural increase ratio ie satisfactory for a population in circumstances such as that of New Zealand.

The indications for 1938 point to a further slight gain in the birthrate, but it should be noted that the comparatively small upward movement in the birthrate during the last two years and a half has followed a much greater relative improvement in the marriage rate, which may or may not be sustained. Should the birthrate of future years reach and jriaintairt higher levels, population growth, is assured, but even if this takes place the' effects of the low increase ratio of the more immediate past will remain.for many years. For example, internal changes in ageconstitution, resulting from the fall in the birthrater entail serious consequences. The movement of population to the higher- agergroups has very widespread effects. An examination of 1936 census age, statistics shows that (omitting Maoris) there were 50,304 more persons over the age of 60 than there were in 1926. Oh. thfe/other hand, there were actually 22,100 fewer' children under the age of 10 in 1936 than there were in 1926. Apart from possible gains from immigration or' losses- from emigration, diminished numbers, must result in future years in the age-groups *'omprisinjj--tno'eev in- , -active occupations. Thus, for example, in .20 years time there will be over fewer persons aged. 20' to 24 years than there were of those-ages.in 1936, Accompanying reduced in the working years of life wilt 'be enhanced numbers at ages pae.t the normal working span:

The Maori population at the 1936 census numbered 82,326, compared with' 03,670 in 1026, an increase of 18,656, or 29.30 per cent. The Maori rate of increase is 'much higher than the European, the interceneal increase for the latter being only 10.39 per cent. For the year ended March 31, 1938, the Maori population increased by 2293, equal to 2.71 per cent.