PROSPECTS FOR 1939.

Auckland Star, Volume LXX, Issue 19, 24 January 1939, Page 6

PROSPECTS FOR 1939.

UNCERTAINTY IN BRITAIN. (By JOHX MULGAX.) LOXDOX, December 20. Since about two weeks after Munich, Europe, and the political situation inside thie country, liave been in a fluid state. It has been a period in which 110 frontier was safe, and no party loyalty. With the Xew Year and another spring the international and the internal situation are likely to take shape again and wear once more the hard and clearly defined realities to which we have grown used. It seems faii'iv clear that <<ermany is going cast, thus fulfilling the traditional 'desire of tlit? Bi itish Im? roion OfHct l lor tnviirr Germany i a common frontier with Russia and letting them fight it out. 1 his is the line laid down in "Mein Kampf," from which Hitler ha* not -o far diverged. The programme i« Memei, Prussia and Poland, the setting up of an "autonomous" Ukrainian State which would have a bout as much independence as the Kingdom of Manchukuo. consolidation of this European empire, and then France.

There are two flaws in the complacence which has so far encouraged this to happen. One is that llermany may succeed and will then be unanswerable. The other is that she may not succeed, but. finding Russia too hard J and impregnable, will turn again on an isolated Britain and France. I Italy's part in recent manoeuvres has li>c!i determined lir.-t of all by Mussolini's serious financial position, and. secondly, by encouragement from the senior partner in the axis, who rcgards threats 111 the Mediterranean and in Spain as »oo<l insurance for his Western frontier. Government's Dilemma. In>ide the dissatisfied Conserva-tives—anti-Chamberlain is too strong a word have won their first victory by forclnr on a reluctant Government a proniise to have a compulsory register if. after three months' trial, the voluntary system is shown not to be working. The present British Governmeiit is, in fact, involved 111 a vicious circle as regards eflicient rearmament. It dbnuot organise the country on a war basis, nor properly protect the civilian population with all the economic dislocation which this would involve, without confessing openly to the electorate that there is a renl risk of war and that its policy of "appeasement" is a failure. Recent speeches by Government spokesmen have shown them feeling their way towards a volte face, in which the blame for all that has happened will be thrown upon the dictators' refusal to co-operate, and not upon the policy of surrender which lia« encouraged them. .Mr. Chamberlain, however, who combines undoubted courage with a rigidity of mind and the general assurance of the amateur in international affairs, remains unconvinced. Someone compared him recently with Housman'e infant child, who. It will be remembered, "was unaware he had been eaten bv the bear." His policy i« at present losing more votes thanit is likely to srain. It. is a safe prophecy that he will be succeeded in oflice before next autumn by a central Conservative Government, probably under the nominal leadership of Mr. Eden.