BRITAIN AND EUROPE.

Auckland Star, Volume LXIX, Issue 196, 20 August 1938, Page 8

BRITAIN AND EUROPE.

"POLICY GROWING STIFFER."

WILL GERMANY NEGOTIATE ?

(By SIR ARTHUR WILLERT.) LONDON, July 23. This weekj's events in Paris, together with their background, permit long-term and shortterm hopes regarding- European affairs and the British attitude towards them. The long-term hope concerns Mr. Chamberlain's appeasement policy and the possibiliiv that it may become more effective than it has been so far. The short-term hope concerns Czechoslovakia, over which war clouds have again been lowering. Every European Government now knows that Lord Halifax has assured MM. Daludier and Bonnet that if Germany attacked the Czechs and if France went to their rescue, Britain would probably join in war against Germany. The hopes of the German extremists that Mr. Chamberlain had weakened since the Czech crisis last spring are thus dashed. This is most important. Germany would not mind using force against Czechoslovakia alone if she refuses to give her German minority the concessions they demand and to quit her alliance with Russia in favour of close relations with Germany. She might even risk war with France alone in ilie hope of keeping lier at hay behind the fortifications which Herr Hitler is rushing towards completion on her western frontier. But she is. unbkely to risk war with Britain as well. Britain and France Together. Hence the effort both Germany and Italy have been making to separate Britain anil France, such as Signor Mussolini's attempt to rush Mr. Chamberlain into bringing the AngloItalian agreement into force prematurely while he picked a quarrel with France and refused to negotiate an agreement with her. Had Mr. Chamberlain yielded, Anglo-French relations would have been badly strained. Captain Wiedemann's much-advertised visit to London was the equivalent German effort, but it is hoped that his report will have convinced Herr Hitler that the Paris celebrations mean what they seem to mean, namely, that it is not the slightest good trying to drive wedges between France and Britain.

That is one reason why London to-day is less depressed by the immediate outlook. It is not believed that Germany has given up her ambition to dominate Central and Southeastern Europe, possibly as a preliminary to an eventual showdown with the Western democracies, but it is hoped and believed that she will, barring accidents, refrain from forcing the pace over the grievances of Herr Henlein and the German minority in Czechoslovakia.

Regarding Mr. Chamberlain's policy, these are various reasons for believing that it is growing stiffer and more realistic. Annoyance that Signor Mussolini should be conducting his Spanish policy -with no more consideration for a would-be friend like Mr. Chamberlain than he showed to a declared enemy like Mr. Eden, is one of them. Another is the discovery— over the Czechoslovakian crisis last spring, and again over the recent controversy with Berlin about the responsibility for Austrian debts—that firmness is apt to produce dividends when dealing with dictators. Another is the growth of British self-confidence as British armaments grow. And. last but not least, is the dawning fear in the Conservative ranks that Labour and Liberal spokesmen are not altogether wrong when they envisage the dictators' support of General Franco and sympathy with Japan as due less to fear of Bolshevism in Spain and China than to an effort, under the leadership of Berlin, to launch a world-wide offensive, partly diplomatic, partly .strategic, and partly economic, against democracy in general and the British Empire in particular.

| Nervousness regarding the economic aspects of this offensive is becoming noticeable in business circles. Sharpened as it is by the slumping of export returns, this interest in the economic side of international affairs may indicate the direction of Mr. Chamberlain's next effort at appeasement.

Trade Negotiations Soon. Politically he has failed to br«ak the deadlock between the dictatorial and democratic groups since he took over foreign policy from Mr. Eden. Economically, however, he will have an opportunity when negotiations for a trade aigreement start with Germany this autumn. Though there is no reason to suppose that Germany is running into economic difficulties at present, many responsible German business men are increasingly worried by the ultimate effect of Herr Hitler's self-sufficiency campaign. The prospect of a prolonged armament race with the combined wealth and resources of Britain and France is also known to cause anxiety in Berlin. So does the prospect of the conclusion of the Anglo-American trade agreement in the course of the next few months, owing to the fact that Germany is on the American blade list and will not there'fore share the tariff concessions which the United States makes to Britain.

May not Germany therefore be ready to talk economic appeasement with Britain," and if bo, may not the door be open for wider negotiations? This question is beginning to be asked in London, especially now that tfte Anglo-French front has been so obviously strengthened.— (Copyright: N.AJST.A.)