OUR POPULATION.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVIII, Issue 12, 15 January 1937, Page 9

OUR POPULATION.

ALMOST STATIONARY.

SOME SERIOUS ASPECTS.

EFFECT ON COUNTRY'S PROGRESS.

(By A. E. MAXDER.)

Ever since the early days in Xew Zealand people have been accustomed to think always in terms of expansion and development. We haw talked of new' unoccupied country which could, and sooner or later must, be opened up for settlement; and we have argued about the closer settlement of occupied land to enable it to absorb more people. We have discussed the future growth of our cities and towns—how they would probably extend in this direction or that; how they had grown during the last twenty years, and might be expected to grow even faster during the next. We* have planned new railways and roads with an eye not only to the present, but also to the future needs of a population which, it was .assumed, would continue rapidly to increase. We have started new businesses, new industries, in this confident belief that the steady expansion of Xew Zealand's population would provide an everexpanding domestic market. Indeed, everything has been based on the belief that everything would continue to grow. It is worth pausing a moment to realise this. The point is sufficiently important to bear reiteration—that ail our thinking has been based hitherto .always on the presumption of continued ■growth. When the present writer came to Xew Zealand sixteen years ago. the most striking of all his first impressions was that of the confident forward-look-ing attitude of the people.

This might not have struck a Xew Zealander, by whom it would be ta&ii for granted as «. matter of course. But a newcomer from the disillusioned old England of that time was bound to be impressed—startled and impressed and inspired—by the way in which everyone here was counting" upon a future of growth and development. Evervbodv here seemed to be thinking and talking brightly in terms, of the great time* ahead, and of the problems they would present, and of the opportunities thev would offer. To come from the England of 1921 to Xew Zealand was like passing psychologically from evening into morning. And at that time the spirit of confidence was justified. No Longer Justified. Even now, 16 years iater. in spite of the changed conditions, most of us find ourselves still thinking—by habit—in the same old confident way. In the meantime conditions have fundamentally changed; the population of Xew Zealand, once so rapidly increasing, has now come practically to a standstill; since the war the birth rate has fallen by onethird, and for the last four or five'years the Dominion has been losing by emigration instead of gaining by immigration. The total increase of white population, spread over the whole Dominion, is now down to 11,000 a year—or little more than two-thirds of one per cent—which for all practical purposes is negligible. Xew Zealand has already practically stopped.

Yet it is difficult to'adjust our minds to this—isn't it? Again and again we catch ourselves talking, by sheer habit, about the bright prospects r.f development. This suburb or that, we «*av. is likely to grow very rapidly. Such-and-such a town is considered to have a big future. Here or there is a district which we have lieoornc accustomed to regard as being on the eve of great things. Industrialists and business men still talk blissfully about the future expansion of our Xew Zealand market, and lay their plane, while other people [ invest their money, on the strength of that assumption. Only by an effort, by constantly pulling ourselves up and reminding ourselves of the facts, are we \ able to overcome this tendency. And each time we do so we experience anew the shock of realisation—that, under . existing conditions, there will be no more progress, no more expansion, no more development in Xew Zealand. From the | standpoint of population and all that i depends upon increase of population. | for all practical purposes Xew Zealand i-has come to a standstill. i Not a Result of the Stamp.

Some people try to gloss over the ugly fact by making an offhand reference to the slump. But the slump does not explain away the fall in Xew Zealand's increase of population. It cannot be too strongly emphasised that this process has been going on steadily tor many year*, through booms and slumps alike. The death rate has remained about the same; but the birth rate has declined every year—yes. without exception, every year—since 1922. During that "period it has, in fact, declined i»y nearly one-third; while even at the beginning of the period, in 1922. it had already fallen to about one-half of what it had been a generation before. If we consider "natural increase" (the excess of births over deaths) in conjunction with immigration and emipra tion. our total annual increase of population is now little more than one-quarter of the rate even ten years ag->. As I have already mentioned it i* down :o about 11.000 a year, or only a trifle over two-thirds of one per cent, which is practically negligible. Even the thr.-e chief cities are growing now at ;hc rate of less than one per cent ]>er annum, while the fourth city, Duuedin, has already.stopped altogether.

True, the same process is occuring in other countries also. The population of France hag been stationary for many years; while that of. Great Britain has now come almost to a standstill, and will eoon begin to decline. Even in Germany and Italy the rate cf increase is becoming slower and slower —although, incidentally, there are still every year 300.000 more Germans than there were the year before, and 400.000 more | Italians, and 000.000 more .lapancse. We ought to remember these figures when t we are tempted to feel complacent in the thought that other nations also are ' growing less rapidly than they did- They are still growing. Let us remember that the increase alone in Germany. Italy and Japan is greater every year !han the entire population of New Zealand. Every time the population of New Zealand k increased by one these three other countries increase by 160. Comparatively Empty. Tet even if these three other countries do eventually come to a standstill, like ourselves, still there will be no similarity between our position and theirs. Germany has only about twice the area of New Zealand, hut already it carries a population of 65.000.000. Italy and Japan are each of roughly the same area as New Zealand—and have

about equal natural resources —but the population of Italy is 40.000.000. and that of Japan 70.000.000. How then can we compare our position with theirs —even if eventually we do ail become stationary. (Jeriuany at 70.00u.000. Italy at 45.000.000. .lajiati at perhaps OO.OOo!- • •00. and New Zealand (with roughly the same area and equal natural resources) stationary at 1.500.000? There is surely some difference between a stationary population in a full country and a stationary population in one which is. by almost empty. One consideration is that of national security. We may or may not. when the test conies. j>osscss the necessary "might" to defend our comparatively empty country—to keep it empty. But there is another quest ion. apa it from that of armed defence. Whether we have any moral "right" to hold New Zealand exclusively for a tiny and stationary population of 1.500.000 —well, that. I suppose, depends upon whether we recognise among nations any ripht other than might. If we do. our position, with a population stationarv at 1,500,000, will be clearlv indefensible.

Means Complete Stagnation. At the moment, however, it is not this aspect of the matter that I want to emphasise. There is the other consideiation. that for New Zealand a stationary population means complete stagnation. In such a country as this, most forms of "progress" are conditional uj»on a rapid and continuous increase of population. For all classes of the people—for the farmers who urgently need an expanding domestic market—for manufacturers and business men who seek opportunities for development—for the workers who require a growing population and growing industries to offer them greater scope for advancement—for all engaged in transport, entertainment, education, the public service—for our bovs and girls—indeed, for all who are 'looking for the opportunities which come only in a growing and developing conntrv. this question of population is one of paramount importance. To-day New Zealand has practicallr stopped. Unless we do something to alter that, it means—does it u..; •- that the prospect now before us is one of mere stagnation. It means that New Zealand will cease to l>c what we have always claimed, a land of opportunity. It means that the British jn-ople. in their great enterprise of building up a strong and virile new nation here in these wonderful islands will have failed. (To be continued.)