FALLING BIRTH RATE.

Auckland Star, Volume LXVII, Issue 58, 9 March 1936, Page 6

FALLING BIRTH RATE.

ITS ECONOMIC EFFECTS,

The latest number of the Australian and ,Xew Zealand "Economic Record"' contains an arresting article contributed by Professor G. C. Billing, of the University of Otago, examining the economic effects of a stationary population. The question is discussed principally from the standpoint of Xew Zealand and licr markets, but the application is general. • In Australia, as elsewhere, with the exception of* countries such as Japan, Germany and Italy, the decline in the birth rate, if maintained, will produce a stationary if not a declining population. It is estimated that such a position will be reached in England about the year 1941, and although in Australia and Xew

Zealand the turning point is more distant, the tendency is markedly in that direction. The official calculation is that the birth rate required to hold the population stationary, assuming 110 change in the death rate and no migration movement is 15.6 per 1000. As in Xew Zealand the birth rate for 1934 is given at only 16.5, it is evident that only a very slight further decline will bring the Dominion to the stage when hirtlis will do no more than compensate for deaths. Statistics show a pronounced increase in the proportion of middle-aged and elderly people in the community. In 1878 the proportion of Aildren under 14 to the whole population in Xew Zealand was 42.40. > T ow it is only 26.5. During that period the proportion of people between 50 and CO years of age has increased from 4.22 to 11.0, and of those over 60 from 2.40 to 9.5 per cent. The change is very rapid, and it has some curious effect*-;. Among them is an interesting analysis made by the author showing how in the _ case of Xew Zealand the average ago of Cabinet Ministers increased from 44.5 years iu ISO 1 to 01.2 in 1034. Since then the Government has been displaced, but as evidence of a general tendency the example is impressive. The question exercising the minds of economists is the effect on markets and commodities of a population comprising an increas--lllg proportion of elderly people. "A popula- i tion which is approaching a stabilised maturity | will develop economic demands very different ' from those of a rapidly expanding community." The' demand for elementary necessities is ' likely to diminish, but there will be markets for new foods, changed and improved clothing, and for luxury services. The author's message is that if export markets for primary products are to cease to expand or even to contract— as they may immediate attention is necessary to alternative methods of utilising the economic resources of tlie country. He° suggests" an industrial survey directing special attention to the changing character of demand'. ,