TOWARD RECOVERY

Auckland Star, Volume LXIV, Issue 285, 2 December 1933, Page 16

TOWARD RECOVERY

WORLD-WIDE SIGNS.

PROGRESS ALMOST GENERAL

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM. -PHT; (By CROESUS.) >? TJP While the dramatic change in the world's wool market, as revealed last Monday by the first New Zealand sale of the season, is by far the most spectacular of the direct indications within the Dominion that the depression of the last four years is now well past its worst stage, this conclusion is strongly supported by corroborative evidence. Only this week London cablegrams report increased shipping activity, leading to the projected building of more ships, and improvements and extensions in British railways clearly point to greater trade in sight or expected.

The last monthly review of the Westminster Bank gives a "long view" of the commercial and financial situation, summing it up in terms of restrained optimism, based on the claim that the worst of the slump was about the middle of 1932. A diagram in the League of Nations "World Economic Survey, 193233," is quoted, showing the course of the slump and the beginning of recovery in thirty countries, and it is curious and most interesting to note their varying experiences from about the middle of last year. In only one of the thirty countries treated, Yugoslavia, was the position still becoming worse at an increasing pace in the second quarter of this year. Things were continuing to get "worse at the same rate as before in six countries —Austria, Norway, Greece, Rumania, Argentina and' Brazil. The pace of the aggravation of the depression was slackening in Egypt and the Dutch East' Indies, but an upward movement had not yet commenced. Australia First.

However, these nine countries are fewer and of much less commercial importance than the 21 which appear to have definitely turned the corner, and even they may be expected to share in the recovery already seen in the majority, if the present indications of a permanent recovery are borne out. If upward movements which proved only temporary are disregarded, it is claimed that the turning point came first in Australia and India, in both eases in the last quarter of 1931. In India the upward movement' has been maintained, although at times at a diminishing pace, but Australia has enjoyed uninterrupted progress towards recovery, a conclusion which is supported in the recent address by the chairman of the Bank of New South Wales, especially in his reference to unemployment, generally regarded as a correct barometer.. It was not until, the third quarter of 1932 that the improvement noted in Australia and India was seen elsewhere, but it is claimed that in the second half, of last year the beginning of recovery developed in Britain, France, Belgium, Gerniarly, Sweden, Japan, British Malaya and New Zealand, and that this economic improvement has continued to the present time. The wool prices last Monday certainly support this reference to New Zealand, although written six weeks ago. Best Position Since 1931. During the first quarter o£ this year the turning-point came in Switzerland, Italy, Finland and South Africa, and since then the upward movement has spread to Canada, the United States, Denmark, Holland and the Irish Free State. The recovery in prices, which was the first and is still the most striking evidence of the turn in the tide, has naturally not been maintained at its initial pace, but, broadly speaking, the previous gains have been held. The League's review concludes that, "at the end of July, 1933, there was more confidence and greater economic activity in the world as a whole than at any time since the financial panic began in the spring of 1931."