CHANGE PREDICTED.

Auckland Star, Volume LXI, Issue 287, 4 December 1930, Page 15

CHANGE PREDICTED.

BRITISH FISCAL POLICY. MORE HOPEFUL OUTLOOK. NEW ZEALANDER'S IMPRESSIONS. The return of the Conservative party to power next year, and an alteration in England's fiscal policy, are predictions made by Mr. A. E. of Auckland, as a result of the impressions he gained during the world tour from which he has just returned. Mr. Odlin said the economic outlook in Gi eat Britain was generally hopeful.

"A prominent subject in England is J tariffs," said Mr. Odlin. "I believe the bulk of the people in England can see,, a sun rising behind the clouds of depression; and that sun is the coming fiscal change. If I might be dogmatic and venture a prediction, I would say that there will be a general election in England next year, that Mr. Baldwin will be returned to power, _ and that Lord Beaverbrook will trim his so-called Empire free trade policy to ma,ke it coincide with Mr. Baldwin's recently-declared policy. Lord Beaverbrook has sought to adopt the American idea of scrapping the old and establishing the new in the same way as a factory would be ripped down and rebuilt. But one cannot expect England to accept such a radical change without a good deal of thought and a good deal of campaigning.

Protection for Manufacturers. "In my opinion what England needs more than Empire preference and reciprocity is action to protect her home markets for lier own manufacturers against the invasion of cheap foreign imports. Incidentally, if this were done our markets at Home would be improved, because there would be more employment for English workmen and a greater purchasing power available for our products. That fiscal change is coming. I think we, as a country, are entitled to ask Great Britain for preference, but first I would like to see Britain put her own _ house in order. The place is flooded with cheap foreign goods. They are of low price and low quality, and are a temptation to unnecessary spending by the people."

Timber Importations. Referring to the free trade policy, Mr. Odlin mentioned dressed timber, doors and similar goods which were imported into England free of duty, thus depriving British men of the work necessary to convert the rough sawn timber into doors, flooring and similar lines. The value of the manufactured doors alone imported into England annually was nearly £2,000,000; but if the timber for those doors wore imported in the rough, employment would be provided for a great nrnny workers in England, the amount of wages being nearly £700,000. Under no circumstances was it suggested that England should put a duty on rough sawn timber, which, in that case, represented the raw material,for her factories.

Weakness of "Dole.'* Tie working of the British unemployment insurance 'scheme was 'being severely criticised in England, said Mr. Qdlih, and he believed that all political parties could detect weaknesses in that legislation. The ~ Act would never be repealed, but he thought that amendments would be effected with the object of making the benefits less liberal. There was depression in Canada and America similar to that New Zealand was passing through, and- in America there were some who were inclined to carry pessimism'to a foolish degree," believing that no daylight; could be seen. That, however, was not the general opinion. The general view in those countries and England wae a hopeful outlook, the opinion being held "that the bottom, had been reached.