EARTH'S CAPACITY.

Auckland Star, Volume LX, Issue 230, 28 September 1929, Page 9 (Supplement)

EARTH'S CAPACITY.

PUT AT 12,000,000,000, RAPID INCREASE OF SLAV PEOPLES. PROFESSOR'S INTERESTING CALCULATIONS. Mankind probably will require at least 150 years to double the world's present estimated population, which is between 1,700,000,000 and 1,900,000,000, if fertility and mortality remain as at present. A mere doubling of the world's population, however, will produce a striking change in the race composition, with a greatly increased percentage of Slavs. The population of North America, western and northern Europe and Australia even now are no longer reproducing themselves. Such were the conclusions presented to the sixth annual Institute of the Harris Memorial Foundation recently in _ Mandel Hall of the University of Chicago, which conducts the institute, by Robert R. Kuczinski, council mVmber of the Institute of Economics, Washington, and professor of economics in the Berlin Handelschochschule. Limit at Twelve Billions. "The best estimate as to the increase in the world's population is that the present rate is about five-eighths of 1 per cent a year," said Professor Kuezinski. "If this rate were to persist, there would be a doubling of population in 110 years. At present,, the total of human beings on the face of the globe ia somewhere between 1,700,000,000 and 1,900,000,000. But the earth's capacity is limited by the potential agricultural resources and,, assuming that there are 15,000,000,000 acres of arable land and that 1.5 acres on an average are sufficient. to support an individual, the maximum population would not have to be placed at less than 10,000,000,000. ' . "Even allowing for all conceivable advances. in science. and technique and assuming that all human effort be directed to the maintenance of a maximum number of people, it seems impossible that the earth might sustain more than six times its present population, or about ,12,000,000;000. people. : "Further, the population limit is restricted also by peculiarities of the human character which may find its expression, in what we may briefly call liational , egoisms. The maximum of 10,000,000,000 or 11,000,000,000. can, of course, be attained only with the freest possible migration. The United States, as all other countries, would have to open the gates to all nations of the world; she would have to accept her due share of the 10,000,000,000 or 11,000,000,000, say 800,000,000. She would have to forget everything about the national origins clause; she would have to welcome 100,000,000 or more immigrants without the slighteest discrimination on account of colour, race or standard of living. Sees Threat of War. "If, on the other hand, the people of the United States and of some other countries, which are comparatively under-populated, go on restricting immigration as they do, it is hard to see how the earth—even allowing for every con-

ceivable advance in. science and technique—could possibly double population. "The world's population cannot for a long time grow at the same rate as it seems to have grown from .1920 to 1926. If the increaee does hot slow down, the inhabitants of the overcrowded countries in a near future will have to claim the right of occupation of the less densely settled territories, and, if the people of those territories resist and try to maintain their immigration restrictions, war becomes unavoidable." Despite insufficient data as to birth rate?, population and age groupe for the world, there exists a basis to predict a slowing down of the rate increase, according to Professor Kuczinski. A study completed by the Institute of Economics of the Brockings Institution, in Washington, covering Great Britain and Ireland, France, Belgium, Holland, Switzerland, Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland, which has 10 or 11 per cent of the earth's population, indicated that fertility is already so low that not only does the population no longer reproduce itself, but has a virtual deficit of about 7 per cent.