TRADE AND COMMERCE.

Auckland Star, Volume LIX, Issue 267, 10 November 1928, Page 23

TRADE AND COMMERCE.

MORE DAIRY PRODUCE.

DECLINE IN IMPORTS.

A STATISTICAL SURVEY.

That the general business outlook is much brighter than it was last year is a conclusion drawn by Mr. M." Fraser, Government Statistician, in his survey for September.in the "Monthly Abstract of Statistics." "The many financial adjustments which occur at the end of September each year were reflected in the bank debits and clearings, which were substantially above the figures for August," he says. "The evidence of an early dairying season is corroborated by the production figures for September, which show the output of butter and cheese to be continuing on a level substantially above last season. The export frozen meat trade shows a seasonable decline in the quantity of mutton exported in September; lamb and beef were both maintained on a level above that for August. Unusual features characterised the° overseas trade; the value of exports showed an advance, while imports declined. The immediate banking situation is obscured by the half-yearly financial adjustments, but the treatment of the figures of advances and deposits so as to eliminate seasonal movements shows the position at the end of September to be infinitely better than at the same time last year. The transport statistics (coastal shipping and railways) reflect little difference in the volume of commodities handled as compared with August, but show a definite advance over September, 1927. Building activity showed a recession in September; further slight improvement was recorded in the unemployment situation;' while a substantial decline was shown in the number of New Zealand residents who left the Dominion with the avowed intention of taking up permanent residence abroad.

External Trade. The total value of recorded visible exports in September appear to reftoct the early dairying season; increases of 29.29 per cent and 21.49 per cent respectively are shown over August, 1928, and September, 1927. The imports showed an unexpected contraction of 3.80 per cent as compared with tho figure for August. For the nine months ended September the export trade has been maintained at a level 20.45 per cent above, and imports at a level 1.01 per cent below, those recorded for 1927. The visible balance of trade in favour of the Dominion for the nine months was, as a result of these disproportionate changes in export and import values since last year, £12,027,432 this year against £4,232,649 last year. The value of exports for the twelve months ended September last was approximately £56,000,000, against approximately £46,000,000 for the same period ending in 1927, while imports were approximately £44,000,000 in 192S against £46,000,000 last year. When it is considered that the. excesses of export over import values is a powerful factor in regulating the London 'balances, of the Dominion's banking-houses, and through them the purchasing power available in the Dominion, it is readily seen that the general business outlook is now much brighter than it was last year.

> Railways and Shipping. . .■ Freight traffic on the railways for the four weeks ended September 15, 1028, as represented by the not-ton-milcs,.was running ,on a level 4.01 per cent below the immediately preceding comparable period, but 10.34 per cent above the corresponding period last year. The coastwise shipping handled 1.40 per cent more freight than in September, 1927, and 1.90 per cent more than in August, 1928. The increases of 3.32 per cent and 4.84 per cent respectively in the cumulative figures for nine months for shipping'and railways respectively point to the fact that business activity has been maintained on a higher level for the nine months of this year than for the same period last year. As business was depressed last year, this comparison cannot bo regarded as indicating anything more than that the volume of business now definitely appears to be increasing after tho recent depression.

Finance. A study of trie differences between the averages of advances and deposits during 1927 and 1928 shows lather strikingly how the excess of advances which appeared for each quarter in 1927 has given way in 1928 to an excess of deposits over advances. The excess of deposits for the average of the four quarters ended September ( £5,895,069) is not far short of the substantial balances recorded in 1925, when purchasing power was on a relatively high level. The figures for the value of land transfers show that the seasonal'decline in dealings in real estate is earlier and more marked than usual. The value of transfers recorded in September was 21.30 per cent below August, 1925, anil 11.38 per cent below September of last year. The cumulative figure for 1928 is, however, 3.15 per cent above the corresponding figure last year, but is approximately 6 per cent below the average for the last three years. There is a close connection between land transfers and mortgages registered. In view of the decreases recorded for the former, it is not unexpected to find decreases of " , 14.35 per cent and 11.12 per cent in the value of the- latter as compared with August, 1928, and September, 1927. For the Dine months of this year the figures show a decrease of 4.52 per cent. in* comparison with last year. 'V . Mortgages discharged declined by 17.54 per cent and 1.48.per cent as compared with August, 1925, and September of last year respectively; but are for the nine months on. a level 4.78 per cent above last year.