THE SOUTHERN BALKANS.

Auckland Star, Volume XLVI, Issue 292, 8 December 1915, Page 4

THE SOUTHERN BALKANS.

J With the fall of Monastir, the last ( town of any importance held -by the * Serbians in their own country, the war ] in the Balkans enters on a new phase. , Although the Serbians, fighting bravely i against overwhelming numbers, have been i beaten in the open field, their armies , have not been decimated to any great , extent. We have not heard o£ any ( Serbian Sedan or Metz, of tho capture ' of an entire army, or even the main portion of an army. There has been 1 nothing, for example, to compare with ) the Russian reverse at Kovo Georgievsk, J where the Germans claim to have cap- , tured an entire army of 90,000 men : (more than they did at Sedan) and SOO . large guns. ( The Serbian armies have simply re- i treated, fighting as they went, against a numerically superior foe. These forces , are virtually still intact in the fast- i nesses of the western mountains of ' Serbia, whence they may be able to receive, through Albania, those supplies , of which they are sorely in need. Italy, i too, the country which, through Albania, is in a position to render the quickest . and most effective help, has- now pro- . raised her support. In Valona, occupied : by Italian troops some months ago, she 3 already possesses a base of operations. Rapid action is necessary, and Italy j alone of the Entente Powers is in a ■■; position to act with" the necessary 1 rapidity. - It is true the Serbian armies may still i continue to harass their enemies by a guerilla warfare, but the' Germans' have ' always considered 6uch a mode of warfare, as unfair. During the war of 1870 ; with Trance they mercilessly shot the ■ "franc-tireurs" who fell into their hands, and we know too ' well the "frightfulness" which was successful in suppressing any armed resistance on the part of the Belgians after their country had been occupied. The most probable course seems to be that the Serbians and Italians will join hands, and, entering Serbia at. a. part of the country which is peculiarly suitable for defence, will continue to occupy and harass the armies of the Central. 1 Powers and of Bulgaria, while the Allies ' will be given more time to advance in j force from the south. The town of j Monastir occupies a peculiar position., While it has no communication by rail 11 with the rest of Serbia, it has such com- j munication with Salonika. This, gives the j Allies a great advantage. How far the j German threat of an advance on the I Gallipoli Peninsula and on Salonika is j to be taken in earnest remains to be j, seen. But let us -suppose that the worst j happens, and that the Allied forces arei, . driven out of the.-Dardanelles-anid- Salon- jika. Sa far .as Great Britain, is con-l cerncd, a defeat of her armies' 'would only arouse her to make fresh' efforts: !• it certainly would not have .the eflect of i making her sue for peace. The .records j. of history show that reverses have j always had the effect of exasperating! the British, and goading them to new efforts. To make peace after a reverse i on the Gallipoli Peninsula or .elsewhere is the last thing that would be done by | British statesmen—such a course would j. be looked on as a humiliation by the J j whole Empire, and no British politician j, would dare to hint at such a thing. The j Gernfans must be well aware of this 11 fact that their capture of the Dardan- i elles would be the very worst thing that could happen in the interests"" of peace, j. But it may-suit-them to niake a threat ' of an attack, in the hope of obtaining I . better terms if some attempt is made at : peace negotiations, a consummation not'; impossible at or soon after the approach- ; ing festive season. Undue importance should not be '. attached to the presence in Constanti- '■ nople of German forces said to have ' come from the North. Between Nish ' and Belgrade the tunnels have been i blown up, and the time necessary to re- .< pair them and allow of the free passage ' of troops is variously estimated at from i' five weeks to five months. It is probable i ; that the German detachments now in!; Constantinople have come via Orsova .' and Widin. But it is improbable that : any large force has been dispatched by " 1 this route, owing to the inconvenience < of transhipments and connections. Nei- ' ther is it possible. that this route will be ' much used in future,.for latest reports ! state that there is now a danger of the ' river - freezing over below Orsova, and 3 the Austrian gunboats, to avoid the ' risk of being frozen in, have retreated to Hungarian territory. , The capture of Monastir brings the : enemies' forces, to the neighbourhood of ' the Greek frontier, and although the 1 Greek Government, warned by recent : events, will probably not seek to depart ] from its -policy of -neutrality--,- the '. entrance of a hostile force into the ter- - ritory north of Salonika, now occupied : by Anglo-French, troops, may tend to I complicate matters. The position will be analogous to that of the Russo-Jap- ' anese war, when hostile armies met onl' territory which was nominally neutral. I \ Yet though the battle ground was nom-1 waily in Chinese territory, the Chinese Government was not affected, .remaining ] perfectly neutral, and there ds no reason ! why the Greek Government should not adopt a similar course. The whole situa- ( tion, however, is one full of uncertain- \ ties. From the beginning of the war the . Balkan Peninsula has provided us with i a continual series of surprises and un- i foreseen events, and the same may be ( true of the future. i