ELECTION FORECAST.

Auckland Star, Volume XLII, Issue 155, 1 July 1911, Page 9

ELECTION FORECAST.

SOUTH ISLAND SEATS. (By Telegraph Own Correspondent.) CHKISTCHURCH, this day. The general election has not begun to attract much attention in Canterbury except among the inner circle of members and candidates, but there are indications that the struggle is going to present some interesting features. The Opposition supporters hold the opinion that they can make some progress in the South this year; indeed, their anticipations in this island are said to be more hopeful than in the North, but it is not easy to see where they are going to gain ground in Canterbury. On the contrary, it seems at present not at all improbable that they will lose one or even two of the three seats they now hold. Mr. R. H. Rhodes (Elesmere) is very strongly established owing to his personal popularity, and he would not be beaten easily; but he does not want to stand again for family reasons, and, should he retire, no other Opposition candidate yet mentioned would have so good a chance of success as would a popular Liberal like Mr. G. Rennie, who has twice been in the field already. The seat will be contested keenly in any case. Mr. C. R. C. Hardy (Rakaia) was run closely in 1008 by a rather weak Liberal candidate, and this year he will be opposed very strongly. Mr. Nosworthy (Ashburton) won his seat on the second ballot by a split in the Liberal vote, and, as there will be , at least two Government candidates, the same thing may occur again. Mr. John McLaohlan, Who was defeated in 1908, says he will stand, and Mr. J. Davis (the local Ma} r or) is also announced. None of the country seats held by Liberals seems likely to change sides, though there is trouble brewing in Waitaki, unless Sir Wm. Steward (who stated three years ago that he was making his last appearance on the political stage) changes his mind. The contests for some of the city and suburban scats give promise of much incident. J.nbour. encouraged by its success in the Municipal elections, is going to irake a rtrtorminpd attack on Cliristchureh South, ?Jr. Whiting (president of the Trai and Labour Council) will be its candidate-. >fr. 11. G. Ell (the sitting rnpmber) will be the official Ministerialist, and a Conservative and a Socialist will nl.=o bo in the field. The Opposition candiclnte linn to be selected from several aspi/i'its. Mr. Ell is likely to win, quite without n second ballot. Mr. T. E. Tnyior. now nn active and popular roombrr with Labour leanings, is assured, on nrrscnt form, of an easy victory in Chri-tolmrch North. He may be opposed by Mr. J. D. ll'ill. son of tho late Sir John Hall. Mr. Hall is being pressed to stand in the Opposition interest, but be will Tiot come forward if another suitable candidate can be found. Mr. G. Witty (Ricearton) and Mr. O. Lnvtreiison (Lvttelton) . look absolutely safp. The latter may be given a large portion of Banks Ponjnsula. taken from the Ellesmere constituency in the redistribution of electorates, but Mr. Rhodes' stvonrrhold lies on the plains. Mr. G. W. Russell (Avon) may be opposed by Mr. J. J. Don on 11. a popular and capable liwver holding Opposition views, but he will not be moved easily. Probably the weakest of the city members is Mr. T. H. Pnvcy (Christenureh East), who will find a very energetic opnonent in Mr. J. McCoombs (Prohibitionist and Progressive). Then, qgnin. there iß ; like.)y to be an Opposition candi-

dfitp. but nn authoritative selection has not been nnnotinnecl. Tlip Hon. D. Buddo, hr the way. -will meet his old opponent. Mr. R.. Moore. He wnn by n very narrow mnrsrin last time, but his new status probably means increased strength. The Opposition party l<as onRaced Central Chambers for the period of the. election, and has been organising actively. No corresponding have been taken in the Liberal camp. Labour, of course, is working bnrd. but it is still badly divided against itself.