THE FATE OF MANCHURIA.

Auckland Star, Volume XXXIX, Issue 65, 16 March 1908, Page 4

THE FATE OF MANCHURIA.

The protests constantly heard during the last twelve months by the Chinese Government and by European merchants and chambers of commerce in China to the effect that Japan, is not observing her self-imposed policy of the Open Door, can hardly be ignored much longer. .Naturally enough Japan lias made up ncr mind to get the beat possible return for the enormous expeuditure in blood and treasure entailed by the war, and, human nature being what it is, wt could hardly expect that she would be prepared to allow her European ' rivals absolutely equal opportunities with herself. But hitherto Japan's performance of her treaty obligations has been scrupulously exact, and while all the Powers were inclined to concede her a reasonable amount oi latitude in Korea and Man-

churia, probably no one outside Japan was quite prepared for what has happened since the peace in the Far .East. Japan has prac-tieaUy annexed. Korea, and she has done her best to monopolise the trade of Manchuria. She allowed Japanese goods to be poured into Mewchwang and the other Manchurian ports before the embargo on foreign, imports was removed; her merchants freely confiscated European patents and trade mark for their own benefit; and preferential advantages of all kinds were said to have been granted to Japanese goods in shipping freights and railway charges. However, this niay be, there is no doubt that Southern Manchuria has been treated by the Japanese as if they intended to regard it as a commercial preserve of their own, and British and American residents have complained as loudly as the Chinese that Japan is infringing their rights and that she is not maintaining the Open Door policy which was supposed to be one of the issues at stake in the war.

The difficulty that has arisen over the proposed railway extension from Sin-min-tmg to Fa-ku-men affects British interests almost as nearly as Chinese. For this line would be an extension of the famous Shan-hai-kwan line which, built by British capital, and controlled by a British management, first carried British commerce iato the heart or" Manchuria. Fa-ku-men, celebrated in the history of the war as the point from which th« Japanese left wing made its flying march round the Russian right before the battle of Mukden, would be a splendid location for a new trade centre, and the Japanese are probably justified in their apprehension that this line if built would be a formidable rival to the portion of the Manchurian railway which they themselves hold. It must not be forgotten that though Japan emerged victorious from the war, she has only a nominal control over Manchuria. Most people will probably be surprised to learn that Russia still practically holds four-fifths of the original railway system in Manchuria, and nearly six-sevenths of the territory. Russia's losses in the war include Port Arthur and the Liao-tong peninsula, about 450 miles of the Manchurian railway, and the position of vantage by virtue of which she could menace Korea and Japan from Southern Manchuria. But it would be altogether precipitate and unwarrantable to regard the peace of Portsmouth as definitely settling the position in the Far East for any great length of time. "The Tmce in the Far East" is the title of one of the best books published on this subject since the war, and the author, Mr. Putnam Weale, advances many convincing reasons for believing that the struggle between Russia and Japan may recommence under changed conditions within the nest ten years. The so-called "evacua-tion" of Manchuria will leave at least 300,000 Russian troops on or near the Manchurian frontier. This means that Rußsia already has at hand a well-equipped and disciplined army twice as large as the force in Manchuria with which she began the war. After Vladivostok is converted into a second and

stronger Port Arthur, the Siberian railway is duplicated, and Turkestan and* Mongolia by other lines are brought into direct connection with Northern Manchuria, it is at least probable that Russia, who has never yet surrendered her national ambitions, will make another bold bid for the domination of Northern China. These considerations may fairly suggest that the book of Fate has not yet been closed so far as Manchuria is concerned. \v'a may add that they invite speculatioa as to whether England in view of hef recent "rapprochement -, with Russia has done wisely by signing a treaty which for the next ten years involves her Ewstern policy inextricably in the schemes and fortunes of Japan.