THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Auckland Star, Volume XVIII, Issue 229, 29 September 1887, Page 6

THE POLITICAL CRISIS.

Wellington, this day.

The "Post" thinks that "the Government will probably resign before the week is out, and if so His Excellency will no doubt call Major Atkinson to his aid; but it is scarcely likely that the member elected for Egniont will undertake to form a new Ministry with which to meet Parliament. The absence of his old colleagues—Messrs Bryce and Rolleston—will tend still more to increase his disinclination for the task. Possibly he may do as was done once before —pass on the responsibility to Sir John Hall,and advise that he be sent for. We do not think Sir John Hall would be able to form a Ministry with any prospect of having the support of a majority. The young New Zealand party, of which Mr Scobie Mackenzie may be taken as a representative, would have none of him any more than of Major Atkinson as a leader, and from his own provincial district he has absolutely no following in the new House. It is difficult to recognise any leader who would be able to form a Ministry which would command confidence. Sir George Grey's following is practically but two men—Feldwick and Hodgkinson ; Mr Ormond has perhaps four or five. Undoubtedly, as was the case at the last general election, Sir Julius Vogel has the largest personal following of any man in the House. Canterbury has returned a lot of young and able men, who, if new to political life, are men of character and education, and full of enthusiasm in other parts of the colony, and so there are many staunch adherents of Sir Julius Vogel, and probably there are at least 25 members in the new House who will absolutely accept Sir Julius Vogel as their leader against all comers. This number,of course, is but a small minority of the whole House; but it is a larger following by a good deal than anyone else can command, and if such a party remain united it must prove a most important factor in the development of events. We consider Sir Robert Stout's defeat has materially strengthened Sir J. Vogel's position, and we see little prospect of the formation of any stable Ministry from the present House upon absolutely strict party lines. Probably several temporary combinations will be tried before a coalition which will afford a prospect of permanency will bo brought about, but it is almost certain that the ultimate result must be a coalition. Unless and until this can be brought about, a state of political chaos may be expected to exist. Sir Robert Stout's departure from the political stage undoubtedly smooths the way to the formation of a coalition possessing strong elements and likely to prove acceptable to the country."

Classification of the House

In reviewing the state of parties, the "Post" classifies 53 members of the new House as Oppositionists, 40 as Ministerialists, and 2as doubtful. The " Press " thinks there are 50 members returned distinctly on the Opposition side, 32 distinctly on the Ministerial side, and 12 who are independent, or whose return is not yet known. As most "independent" membershaveatendency towards the strong battalions,the probability is that a majority of the twelve will go against the Ministry, but if we allow six to each party we shall have 56 Oppositionists and 38 Ministerialists, showing a majority of 18 against the Government.

(BY TELEGRAPH—OWN CORRESPONDENT.)