FRENCH OPINION ON THE SITUATION.

Auckland Star, Volume XXVI, Issue 117, 26 May 1885, Page 4

FRENCH OPINION ON THE SITUATION.

Fear that Germany will Solzo Holland.

Parts, April 10,

Thonews received ol the outbreak of hostilities in Afghanistan caused a panic on tho Paris Bourse such as lias not been exporienced sinco 1870. War botweon England and Russia being regarded as inevitablo, tlio monoy market was thrown into a stato that can best be described as one of wild disorder. Tho excitoment on the Bourse was scarcely loss intense than it -vas on tho London Stock Bxchango. Tho 3 per conts. fell lfr. 50c, nnd tho 4J per cents, lfr. 15c. The effect of the panic was atill moro severoly felt in every class of foreign stock. The fall was general all over Europe, and telegrams from^ London, Berlin, and St. Petersburg only tended to deepen the de prossion in Paris. Tho Franco-Chinese quarrol has been thrown into obscurity by tho shadow of tho far moro terrible struggle that is preparing between England and Russia in Asia and Europe. From a sentimental point of view, th» French aro wholly disinterested in this Afghan frontier dispute, but their material interests aro deeply involved in it. They fully roaliso that a war botweon England nnd Russia would upset the Euvopean equilibrium, and they aro quito aware of tho dangerous complications that aro too likoly to onsue from the withdrawal of such important pieces from the Continental chessboard. Howover an Anglo-Ruesian war may terminate, France must bear a share of its evil consequences. Both England and Russia will bo bo awakened by tho conflict that the influonco of either will bo likely to count for very little in any changes that may take placo in tho map of Europe in consequence of tho conflagration in Asia. If war breaks out between England a»d Russia, the eyes of Franco will bo immediately turned upon Berlin. The gloom and uneasiness producod in this country by tho prospect of an imminent Anglo-Russian war is explained by tho absolute uncertainty surrounding tho action of Gormany when tho Titanic struggle in Central Asia lias commoncod. The possible action of England in seoking Europoan allioa also givos causo for gravo approhonsion here. Tho French fear that the other European States will not remain, liko themsolves, passivo spectators of tho struggle. Thoy know that England has set all Europo ablozo before when her interests have boon assailed, and thoy are fully alivo to tho possibility of her doing tho samo again. But what thoy fear most is, that (iermany will find a protoxt for invading Holland, Prince Bismarck's ideas as to tho eventual necessity of thiß stop being well known. Thoso apprehensions aro clearly expressed in an articles which ha.s just appoared in the "XIX. Sidcle." Tho \rritor says : —

"I am convinced that Gormany at the presont hour has no wish to recommence tho war of 1870-71. Tho agod Emporor and tho aged Princo, both full of years and covorod with glory, having restored the Gorninn Empire, liavo no desiro to compromiso this triumph. Thoir eagle has ono claw upon Dentzic and another upon Motz. Thin is enough, nnd the prey happily is Dot sufficiently digosted for tho appetite of tho conquoror of our good 'ands of Alsace and Lorraino to havo bocomo koon again. Nevertheless, it must bo always remembored that occasion, which makos joyous thieves of kisses, also makes nations thievos too. Germany, encumbered with territory, is poor and prolific, nnd needs colonies and ports. It is an economic law that emigration onrichosthe country when tho colonist keeps up a connection withthoFathorlnnd, nnd that it impoverishes it whon tho emigrant loaves without a thought of returning. Gorman emigration, which is very considorablo, and is offoctcd partly by our vessels, is a kind of emigration that does notonrich Germany, because she lacks coloniosas well as trading ports. Tho flat shoros of tho Baltic are bad for tho lattor purposo, and such ports as exist there might bo easily blockaded at tho Sound. It is therefore impossible that Gormany does not dream nf acquiring ports on tho Meditorranoan such as Triosto, and tho ports and colonies of Holland. Ono day or another tho coup must be attempted. INow in this ovont wo woro almost suro of having upon our sido cithor England (returning to lior seventoonth contury policy) or Russia, who has a strong interest in preventing tho maritimo development of Gormany. But if England and Russia aro at war, and thoir action is therefore neutralised, who can say that, notwithstanding the sincere desire for peace which tho Emperor has shown, something stronger than human wishos may not compel him to remount his war horeo ? Ought "not our country, then, to bo prepared for all eventualities ? Is it not our duty from this day to forget our miserablo quarrels and to keep our eyes resolutely fixed upon the future ?"