SIR WILLIAM CROOKES AND THE WHEAT PROBLEM.

The wheat .. problem :is mecessanly of perennial interest. The full extent of its importance was, perhaps, never fully realised until, at the annual meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science in 1898, Sir William" Crookes, making a departure from the w.onted domain of abstract science, dealt with it in his presidential address. Although the views advanced by 'him presented this great problem in too pessimistic a light, still the words. of warning uttered by the president >of the association; who is one of the ablest scientists "of 'the century, are, even after "this, lapse of >tima, well worthy of due heed.' " "In his presidential address the-- burden of Sir William's" sorrow- was .that" thereof Id isdn,imminent danger.of alwheat famine, which 'can -only; ->be -averted !by- calling »in the aid of the most 'modern- science: (Rhe grounds ' upon" "which . he- based his assumption >may be 'briefly -stated as follows: — "According 'to "the best authorities, the total supplies from the 1897-98 [harvest are 1921 million bushels. "^ ' The requirements of the 516J million breadgaters for seed and food are £324 bml-

lion bushels ; there is thus a deficit of 403 million bushels, which has not been .urgently apparent owing to a surplus of 300 million bushels carried over from the last harvest." Then, as regards the following harvest, Sir William pointed out that there were no remainders to be 'brought over from the preceding .harvest. Consequently " we start with a deficit of 103 million bushels, and have 6,500,000 more mouths to feed." From this fact Sir William Crookes concluded that about one-sisth of the required bread would be lacking, unless larger draughts than seemed possible could be made from the 1898-99 harvest. The majority of the wheat crops between 1882 and 1896, he said, were in excess of current needs, and thus considerable reserves of wheat were • available for, > supplementing small deficits ~ from' the four' deficient harvests. "But bread-eaters have almost eaten up the reserves of wheat, and the 1897 harvest being under average, the conditions become serious." Again, , he ' said : "Between 1882 - and -1897- the -wheat, crops were so abundant 1 that over "1200 - .million bushels were added to our stores, besides large accumulations Of rye. Dur- , ing the time of golden, harvests, "the exports from. Russia increased "in conse--quence of the Russian decline in unit consumption of 13.5 per cent. These re- 1 serves have been gradually; drawn upon,bukenough still remained io obscure the fact .that the 1895-96 harvest was 75 million bushels and the 1896-97' harvest 138 million bushels below current needs.'' That scarcity and high prices have not prevailed in recent years, -Sir -William de- - clared, was due to tne fact that since 1889 we have had seven world^crops of wheat and six'ot rye abundantly in ex-, cess of the average. . ./These generous crops increased accumulations to such an extent as to 'obscure the fa.ct that the harvests of 1895 and 1896 were each much' below current requirements. He then ■said: "Practically speaking, reserves are now exhausted, and bread-eaters must" 'be fed from current harvests— accumula-' tion under present conditions being almost -impossible." Sir' {William saw .no, 'prospect pfJincreasingVthe '.world's wheat: yield* under , existing conditions of agri- , culture,/while 'both the unit,' cbnsunip-, tion and, J the;number, of- consumers' were*v oil-:" the - v nic'*ea'so'. - , Therefo re \he hel'd \ \ ,".It,,tis . clea'r'.iwe -are I . confronted^w,ith ."a colossal -problem that must tax the wits; *of i-th"e . wisest. When the 'bread-eaterst have exhaused all possible supplies from -the 11897-98,l 1897-98, harvest there will 'be a deficit of 103-million"bushels,of wheat, with no substitution possible, unless Europeans can-be induced to. eat "Indian, corn and rye bread." Turning to the wheatgrowing areas of the world, Sir v William' showed ,that the requirements for 1901^ will'be 2412 .mi11i0n bushels, to -produce 1 which 190 million acres would have to be devoted to wheat culture. The ,area r in 1898 was estimated. at 183. .million acres, while the annual average increase was about four million -acres. He 'further noted that as the area under wheat *had increased, that under-rye had diminished, with the result that scarcely an aerehad been added to the world's wheat and rye since 1890. The 'United States, wjtiich grow about one-fifth of- the world's wheat and contribute one-tMrd 'of all s wheat exportations, "are even now" drrfppingout'of the race, -and 1 likely- soon to' enter the list of wheat-importing countries/ On the other .hand, Russia, owing to ,the decline in unit .consumption, has in-, creased , her-., wheat exports, *and [d>his '.' factitious excess temporarily staveld'off scarcity in '"Europe." Sir William, however, atlded that although "Russia at;present exports so .lavishly, the excess is merely provisional and- precarious. .Already" the health of her population is being seriously affected'from partial starvation due to innutritiqus food, 'so that Russia will have to restrict her export mr the interests of home supplies. Canada provides <the remaining great wheat .producing area .of *the world. Sir "'William 'mentioned that'he had seen it estimated' that- Canada alone contained 500 million acres of profitable wheat land, but -in face of the 'fact that the, total area employed ,in both temperate zones for growing all the staple feotl crdps*is*not more. than_sßo million acres, the- Canadian estimate twas manifestly absurd. The ;most > trustworthy estimates give Canada -& wheat area of. about 6,000,000 acres, : f>os-' siblyincreasingto twice -that area during the -next 25 years. .Looking: all the circumstances,, therefore, squarely' in the face, Sir "William Crookes arrived at ihs conclusion .that ,if . "th&^agricultural com- '; unity igo yon producing wheat as at pre r sent, 'even after ."every available- acre has been pressed, into service, the supplywould .not .equal the demand in the not distant .future.- 'The .evil day may^ be -off iby ."increasing .-the .yield rail the lines 'with the -aid o| -Inanure, but, unfortunately, all the pavaiia^ble

pleted, so that the problem which .confronts us is truly colqlsal, as Sir-ifWuVi ; liam terms it. But ihere is a' ~of^ "' light in the darkness. Nitrogen insufficient quantity wiould,, bring the 1 ' average yield up to 25 or evenV3o bushels ; bu€ Sir William estimates that an increase of the present world's^jitverage ' of 12.Z " bushels per acre to 20 bushels would .overcome thd- difficulty. The store of nitrogen in the atmosphere' is practically; unlimited, but how are we to fix it for! plant food? It has been demonstrated that by passing a strong induction current betw.een the terminals of a -powerful battery the air takes fire and continues to burn with a, powerful' flame, producing nitrous and nitric acids. Prom the re^_ . suits of this " wonderful experiment 1 Sir ' William Crookes estimates- that "nitrate of . soda could 'be : Electrically produced at a cost of hot more -thau £5 per ton, against the present, price, of £7 10s for Chili nitrate,. For, the, world's requirements "12 million tons "of- nitrate "would have to be produced annually; and' can we generate .'electricity enougfi ''to duc&,that anioun't ?,' Sir William- Crookes . r gives the answers X{* A preiimiiiary calculation sfliows tljat -there' needT/be no -' fear, on that score ; 'Niagara.-. alone. J. is.-, capabte of supplying .the eleci" trie energy -without much -lessening its mighty flow. The future can take care '' of itself. , The-artificial production of. ' nitrate is clearly view, > and by, its aid the land deyo ted to -wheat .ican be - •brought up t\ . ' the, 3O.\bushels per, acre' standard." "Having stated Sir 'William.. Crookes's opinions on this ' great fluestion, we must defer considerationlof-itheV arguments of- his critics 'for a futura , article, ' . ■ \ "" " ;